NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $59.95
Hero (SB): $102
BB: $37.85
UTG: $98.50
MP: $187.80
CO: $113.78

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($11) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $16</font>

Im very sure he has an unimproved small pocket pair here, because I dont think he would raised with a full house. Im I right?
Should i fold, call or 3bet here?

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

most of the time I muck here

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

But if i think i would fold more than 50% of the times, shouldnt I put in a potsized 3bet here?

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

I don't see how we can muck here getting better than 4:1. Readless I dont think we can push (he has to fold 50%+ of the time). But we should be able to call. Stop &amp; go a lot of turns that appear to help our range/hurt his range. Check-raise a lot of turns that actually do help our range.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

check flop...then you can see free card on turn or find out where he is w/ check-raise

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

check flop with intention of raising or getting a free card. if it checks through, check/fold unimproved turn.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

[ QUOTE ]
check flop with intention of raising or getting a free card. if it checks through, check/fold unimproved turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's results-oriented thinking. cbetting this flop is std.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how we can muck here getting better than 4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we're OOP with A in a medium sized pot with about a 10% chance to improve on the turn and otherwise no idea where we stand in the hand.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how we can muck here getting better than 4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we're OOP with A in a medium sized pot with about a 10% chance to improve on the turn and otherwise no idea where we stand in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh. i think we know exactly where we stand in the hand, and we have a better than 10% chance to improve on the turn because we don't need an Ace or a King. A Queen and to a lesser degree a Jack will do nicely.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Really? And whats villain holding?

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Usually a medium pair. 55, 66, 88-TT mostly. Sometimes a weak or moderate draw. Almost never a really strong hand. This is usually a marginal hand, or a hand that will become marginal on a lot of turn cards.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Calling a raise OOP with A high to most likely have to run a multistreet bluff is pure spew.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

lol ok, nice recitation of the company lines

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $59.95
Hero (SB): $102
BB: $37.85
UTG: $98.50
MP: $187.80
CO: $113.78

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($11) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($43) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $38.64</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $81 and is All-In</font>, UTG calls $38.86 and is All-In

River: ($198) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $198 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Fours) and LOST (-$98.50 NET)
UTG showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (two pairs, Sixes and Fours) and WON $195 (+$96.50 NET)

I thought my turn checkraise was profitable against his fold% and range, so i did that raise. And i checked because I thought he would pot control it. Maybe I should bet the turn? Since his turn bet was so high, i thought it couldnt be a valuebet.

Did I have a good line at turn?

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

No, I dont think that was a good turn card for you to make a move on. You're looking for cards that make him re-think the value of his hand. Broadway cards.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Against a 66 he had to fold more often than 3% of the time to make my turn raise profitable. But would a bet been more profitable?

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

He's always calling this turn after he bets because of "pot odds". You could lead, but I think he's calling a lead on this turn too.

This is why you don't try to bluff donks.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

I missed that the turn gave you the NFD. And I think your math is wrong, he needs to fold closer to 20% for your push to be BE. And it needs to be just a hair more than that anyway because you're not just playing against a mid pair. Your pair outs might not be good. Really close to 20 tho.

You can call tho I believe.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

^^^
I don't think villain will pay us off if we hit river and lead it. I don't like c/c turn.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

I have 29,54% equity.

F = Minimum profitable fold percentage
W = Equity (29,57%)
P = How big my push is copared to the size of total pot (0,98)


F =

P(1-W) - W(P+1)
___________________
P(1-W) - W(P+1) + 1


F = 0,098

He have to fold more often than 9,8% of the time to make my semibluff push profitable.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

fold the flop alot. sometimes reminiraise or call and cr turn. though these tards are never folding any pair.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

[ QUOTE ]
^^^
I don't think villain will pay us off if we hit river and lead it. I don't like c/c turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If youre right (you could be) then we have to c-f turn.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have 29,54% equity.

F = Minimum profitable fold percentage
W = Equity (29,57%)
P = How big my push is copared to the size of total pot (0,98)


F =

P(1-W) - W(P+1)
___________________
P(1-W) - W(P+1) + 1


F = 0,098

He have to fold more often than 9,8% of the time to make my semibluff push profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not 100% positive because I don't totally understand how you got your formula, but I suspect this formula is wrong.

Here's my math (I rounded a few numbers to ease the math):

q = equity = .3
f = fold %

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
SB | - [78]
U | 39 39
------------
43 |


(43 is the pot before any betting)

EV = 0 = f(43+39+39) + (1-f)[ q(43+39+39) + (q-1)(78) ]
0 = 126f + (1-f)( .3(121) - .7(78) )
0 = 126f + (1-f)(-18.3)
0 = 126f - 18.3 + 18.3f
18.3 = 144.3f
18.3/144.3 = f

.13 = f
</pre><hr />

edit: fixed an error in the f(43+39) term which had some effect

edit2: fixed yet another error [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'll get this right eventually

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

if your going to take that line on the turn why not just open shove and make him cold call ~$80 instead of $~40. I think I open shove the turn.

I hate the CRAI on the turn and the flop call.

Three bet flop &amp; push AI on turn or fold flop, IMO.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Chicago Twister:

I think your calculation is wrong:

F = Fold%
W = Win% if he calls

If fold% is 0,13, pot is 39, his bet is 39 and my push is 78,
then EV=

F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($78) + (F-1)W($39+$78) - (F-1)(W-1)($78)
= 0,13($78) + (0,87)0,2957($39+$78) - (0,87)(0,7046)($78)
= 2,417

If i does the same calculation at my fold%, and we use my numbers.
F = 0,098
Pot before push = 82
Pushsize = 81
His bet = 39

EV = F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($82) + (F-1)W($39+82) - (F-1)(W-1)($81)
= 0


Here is how I get the formula (tested and confirmed many times):

0 = F + W(1-F)(1+P) - P(1-F)(1-W)
- W(1-F)(1+P) + P(1-F)(1-W) = F
F/(1-F) = -W(P+1) + P(1-W)

New variable, X:

-W(P+1) + P(1-W) = X

X = P(1-W) - W(P+1)

Continuation of the calculation:

F/(1-F) = X

F = X(1-F)

F = X - XF

1 = X/F - X

1 + X = X/F

F = X/(X+1)

F = P(1-W) - W(P+1)
___________________
P(1-W) - W(P+1) + 1

It's kind of big, but I don't know how to make it more simple than that.

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

1) Call flop raise
2) bet turn
3) if he raises, shove all in, if he calls shove river improved, check unimproved

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

I vote call and shove turn if he bets

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Aquadougs : take a look here. I think the highlighted term is missing the fact that when we pushed he called. your computation has the pre-push pot + our push, but not his call.

[ QUOTE ]
F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($78) + (F-1)W($39+$78) - (F-1)(W-1)($78)

[/ QUOTE ]

This term should be ($39+$78+$39)

Re: NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call
 

Assume we both are agree that we talk about what we win if he calls and we hit; "(F-1)W".

I'm not agree with what you are saying. We wont win more than what lies in the pot + what he puts in the pot, not what we put in the pot. If the pot is 39 and he bets 39, the total pot is 78. If we push 78, then its 39 more for him to call. We wont win any part of the amount we are pushing. So if he calls and we hit, we will win: (the original pot)+ (his bet) + (his call) = 39+39+39.

Or more simple: (the original pot) + (our push, cause thats what he lies in the pot) = 39+78.