78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

4/8 Live game. LP Table, No reads

Bunch of limps to Hero in HJ with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] who limps, few more. 8 to the flop

(7 SBs) Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] One EP bettor, 2 more call, Hero Raises, 2 Cold Callers, others call as well. 5 to the turn

(8.5 BBs) Turn is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Checked to Hero who checks, rest check as well. 5 ways

River comes the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] EP bettor, we all fold.

Anyone bet this turn with this many outs or just take the freebie? Was thinking afterwards that with this many decent outs in what is shaping up to be a 10 BB pot that I could or should have bet here. Any Tens except the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are???

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

I think you can bet for value here.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

Bet turn for value. You'll have more than enough callers.

-Fluffy_Shark

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

grunch
preflop, flop good

you could argue that 5-ways, if everyone called you are squeezing value out of your possible 15 outer. But obviously some of those outs are for a chop and some are not to the nuts (higher FD and KJ are possible).

Plus not everyone is going to call your turn bet

And then by checking you get the nice benefit of being able to raise the river if someone bets and your draw comes in.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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I think you can bet for value here.

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You need 3 of the 5 to call and your rarely getting check/raised. I think its close.

OP,

I don't understand why the size of the pot matters here. Its really just a question of turn equity.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

* grunch *

I count 6 to the turn with two coldcallers, is that correct?

You have 15 outs to flush/straight so that's like around 30% pot equity, you'd need 3 other callers to make this a slightly profitable turn bet. But I think I just check for two reasons. One, I doubt you are going to bet out a better hand and buy an 8 or 7 out. Second, with all the coldcalling I think it might be possible that someone else is on a flush draw so I think you have to discount your outs a bit. I check and fold river unless I hit the flush/straight.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

The size of the pot always matters. It is one of the most important things to ever consider in the game is it not?

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

I think betting out is probably marginally profitable. You have enough of an equity edge to bet and hope for a couple callers if all your outs are good. The coldcallers in the hand are your only worry, you have to discount your outs (and equity) a bit based on a possibility there is a bigger flush or straight draw out there. Without the coldcallers, this is a bet every time. With them, I still think it is best to bet out, but I don't see a huge issue in taking the free card.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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The size of the pot always matters. It is one of the most important things to ever consider in the game is it not?

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Not when you're looking at the money that will go in if you bet. Your draw will win roughly 30% of the time whether one person calls or all four. So you should bet if you expect to be putting in less than ~30% of the money that will go in on the turn, i.e., you expect an average of at least 2 callers.

If you figure to win more than your fair share of the time, you profit from each bet that goes into the pot.

The pot size matters when deciding between a call vs. a fold, not a bet or raise vs. a check or call.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

I agree with Sean that the size of the pot doesn't matter in deciding whether or not to bet on this street. We're trying to decide if we have enough equity to make a bet profitable *on this street*.

Let's say our equity against our opponents' ranges is fixed at 30%. If you have to pay 3 BB's to win, say, 16.5 BB (8.5 + 2 people playing for 3 BB + 2 more BB on the river), then your turn play has been +EV. However, on this street, you put in 1/3 of the bets owning less than 1/3 of the pot. The +EV comes from the padding of the pot by the loose flop and preflop callers, but you actually lost money on this street. I like to think of this kind of play as spending the positive expectation that I made on an earlier street; it's fine, but if you can take a free card it's usually worth it.

That said, I think, as has already been said, that a bet here is close. You're unlikely to be c/r'ed, and 3 callers is probably enough to make it close to profitable. At the same time though, you have to worry that if you get that many callers, your outs may not be clean. I check behind.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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And then by checking you get the nice benefit of being able to raise the river if someone bets and your draw comes in.


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I'd be careful raising if your flush came in. It's the most obvious draw and you'd have just played it like you were on it so what are they betting into you with?

The str8 draw is the one you'd like to see hit on the end.

I agree with Gobbledygeek about the turn. But it's close enough that either way is ok. Just don't spew on the river if a flush hits and someones betting into you.

b

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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The pot size matters when deciding between a call vs. a fold, not a bet or raise vs. a check or call.

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The size of the pot absolutely matters when deciding whether to bet. When the pot is large, you must be willing to do what is necessary to give yourself a better chance of taking it down. Betting and raising do so. Checking and calling do not.

At the same time you are calculating your equity here, you should also be considering how likely your opponents are to fold to a bet. The more likely that is the more frequently you should continue betting. In this case our chance of folding someone is admittedly small, but I don't think that's an argument to never consider pot size in our decision.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

Good points Hyper. In this particular case, aside from the immediate value shown from a bet on this street, I think the only scenario where there we gain additional equity from folds is the case where:

1. No one has a Q (or a weak Q will fold, but players that play weak Q's don't fold top pair).
2. 9's will fold.
3. JJ-TT will fold.

In this case, your added fold equity helps. Otherwise, a turn bet needs to be for value.

(ah, see you've added this already [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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I'd be careful raising if your flush came in. It's the most obvious draw and you'd have just played it like you were on it so what are they betting into you with?

The str8 draw is the one you'd like to see hit on the end.


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right, that's true. don't auto spew. you'll raise if a non-club 5 comes in, probably call with a 10, maybe raise if a straightening club comes in. maybe even fold if the action blows up 1,2,3 bets with a baby club.

who and where the bet comes from also matters in deciding whether to raise or not.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

If I'm reading the rest of the comments correctly (and I like to think I am) then you would need 3 callers on the turn and your outs would have to all be clean. I think that if you do get three callers clubs probably aren't good. That takes away from the value. So if you bet and don't get three callers you're -EV and if you do bet and get three callers you're likely -EV.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

you played it correctly. With all the callers on the flop you are clearly behind. The only reason you would bet the turn is if you thought they'd all fold which is unlikely, or if you were going to bet for value ( that is you thought you had the best hand) which is unlikely. So you have to improve to win and you are offered a free card. So you took it as you should have.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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you played it correctly. With all the callers on the flop you are clearly behind. The only reason you would bet the turn is if you thought they'd all fold which is unlikely, or if you were going to bet for value ( that is you thought you had the best hand) which is unlikely. So you have to improve to win and you are offered a free card. So you took it as you should have.

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You're missing the point. Hero has 8 high, so yeah, he's behind. What we're trying to figure out is if he has enough equity in the pot to make a bet +EV.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

Well I can tell you that at least 2 or more of them will likely not fold if I bet on this table with this board texture. So I am leaning towards the way I played it. But it seems like a bet is that much -EV if at all.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

Look, you can play it that way if you want to gamble and play a bigger pot,with possible favorable odds, but when someone offers me a free chance at an already decent size pot, than I'll take it all day long.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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Look, you can play it that way if you want to gamble and play a bigger pot,with possible favorable odds, but when someone offers me a free chance at an already decent size pot, than I'll take it all day long.

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This is a huge leak.

Read SSHE's chapter on "The Free Card Play" specifically the subchapter about "When to Turn Down the Free Card".

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

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But it seems like a bet is that much -EV if at all.

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huh?

I like the way you played it too. Clubs arent' good very often if we get three callers methinks.

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

Whoops, I meant that if I bet that it can't be that much -EV if at all.

Back to the scotch. hiccup! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: 78 Suited: Bet or take freebie
 

With no reads, I'm not exactly sure if my opponents are the sort to give up weak hands on the turn when facing a bigger bet and I'm not sure if a river bluff has a chance of winning the hand.

If I have no reads, I probably haven't been at this table for very long and may not have shown down a hand yet. I might be more inclined to bet if I think that I want to make a first impression that I bet draws that encourages more callers on the turn for future hands and I might be more inclined to check (but not necessarily check in the same spot later) if I want to cultivate a tighter image.