Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

This happened a couple of weeks ago. I am second guessing myself... because I lost. No hand history... at work.

Down to 3 remaining

~$42,000
~$24,000
~$17,000

SB ~370k
BB ~370k (Me)
Button ~1.1M

Reads, SB was the most aggressive and chip leader throughout the tournament. At the bubble he worked us over like we were little beatches. At FT bubble did the same thing. He went into FT with about 800k of 2 million chips. He tooks some rough beats to be where he is.

Button is TIGHT, and has recently been getting hit by the deck. Nice timing...

There reads on me... I was pretty aggressive to get here, second to SB.

SB-5k BB-10k Ante of 500

Button raises to 30k
SB folds
I have Ks 8h and its 20k to call.

What's the play?


Flop is:

7s 9s Js

I check with intention of check raising, button bets 70k.

There is 0% chance button would bet 70k here without at least a J.

Now what?


What I did? All-in, he called showed AJ (no spade), and I never improved.

Out in 3rd. Even improving 1 position is $7000 or so. This is a lot for me, BUT I REALLY WANTED TO WIN [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

prob much pre, though flatting isnt awful. check fold flop.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

i guess its not a huge deal but pre is a fold. id play the flop the same way at this point gutterball overcard 2nd nut flush draw = yes plz

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

Fold PrF. CRAI flop as played.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

You were 55% to win on the flop.

Fold preflop, particularly due to payout stucture and villain's image.

CRAI is standard. I might flat call the flop due to payout structure and read.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

believe me... I ran the numbers. But I think his range was at least a J and maybe much better. I couldn't bring myself to fold here tho, but I was worried about AsJ. That really is a kick in the balls for my hand.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

Based on button read, I'd avoid tangling with him with hands like K8o. Fold pre. As played, check/fold the flop. I prefer making resteals and c/r's against the aggro sb.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

Just fold preflop, on the flop your a favorite with fold equity, cant get much better 3 handed then that.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

[ QUOTE ]
believe me... I ran the numbers. But I think his range was at least a J and maybe much better. I couldn't bring myself to fold here tho, but I was worried about AsJ. That really is a kick in the balls for my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he bet so much with AsJ? Surely he'd be happier to see a call here. He's never folding hand that's beats him, and anyone he's ahead of would be drawing to 7 outs max whilst needing to dodge a spade.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
believe me... I ran the numbers. But I think his range was at least a J and maybe much better. I couldn't bring myself to fold here tho, but I was worried about AsJ. That really is a kick in the balls for my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he bet so much with AsJ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because he's worried about the superscary board and doesn't want to get drawn out?

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

But with ace of spades there aren't that many draws are there that worry him.

The worst possible draw he could be up againt is Q10, and that only has 8 outs, (3 8s, 3 Ks, 2 Qs) and they'd still miss a spade on the other card even if they did hit.

He dominates a lot of the draws, like the K of spades.

Gut shut + over like hero's hand only has 6 clean outs and still needs to dodge a spade.

All I'm trying to say is that I doubt hero has to worry about the Ace of spades and can count the spades as his outs.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

[censored] how you got there, but don't fault your play on the flop too much

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

i dont see any bad result u can have with a weak lead/shove here i like a weak lead/shove better because crai if he bets a normal amount like 40k or 50k is a lil bit of an overshove if u bet 20k~ if he raises to 80k or 90k u can shove ur 300k in there ur shove looks pretty strong to a lot of players and it might get him to fold more hands than a crai or he can flat call and u got good odds with ur draw or he can fold which is great too.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

Based on your image of btn I would easily let this go PF. As played, C/f the fold. You and the 2nd villain have almost the same amount of chips, I would pick a better spot to get it in.

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

[ QUOTE ]
But with ace of spades there aren't that many draws are there that worry him.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was trying to say villain might think this, since he's very tight and 'doesn't want to get drawn out', which is a pretty common rationale for bad villains to overbet unnecessarily. I don't care too much what he *should* be thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Is this a donkey play Wed 320 on PS
 

I ran your hand in stove against villain's range assuming he has AT LEAST a J here, and even including hands like AsJx or AsAx (though they didn't affect your equity much since they're so unlikely), you were still 45%.

I guess if you KNOW he's never bet/folding for 70k here, and ALWAYS has at least a jack, then you should fold. But I don't fault you for thinking you had at least a little fold equity to make the shove.