QQ and a monotone board
 

I only have around 50 hands on both villains. UTG is taggish with 12/6/1.44 numbers. SB is loose and passive and fishy with 40/4/.89 so far.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, SB calls, Hero ??

I have a taggy player raising and a loose passive calling two. What do you guys do?

Doc

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I don't fold yet.
Could be a raise for a free card on the turn from UTG.
I call and c/f unimproved on turn.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

We really have only about 1 effective out against the ace here, little defense against the flush, and well, it feels ugly. I expect our implied odds are not good; on the other hand, Poker Stove still gives us about 49% equity so I guess I call and see what the turn brings.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I don't think we can check/fold a small red "brick" on the turn.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

hmm:
- tag raise from UTG
- tag has quite low AF
- one villian cold call flop raise

Isnt it RIO concept here? (i know pot is quite big but we can be deep behind and if ahead we can lose with KQ one in clubs if hit flush or if hit king)

i like here fold

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

anyone care to put UTG on a raise/call range and then do some maths and work out what what percentage of that range has a club in it?

fwiw a 12/6/1.44 isnt really a tag...thats a weak tightie predictable player who should be pretty easy to read. you know it. oh and hero still has SB to worry about...I wonder what he is calling with...hmmm.... a club? ace?

call me crazy but early in a session I'd probably made a call here EVEN if I thought it were -EV partly because I dont want anyone who is paying attention to start making moves against me. I want to keep everyone in line playing dumb, nice and predictable poker cos thats +EV for me.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stove still gives us about 49% equity so I guess I call and see what the turn brings.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands did you use?

49% indicates raise.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I used 6% for UTG and 40% for the other villain. I don't think I could raise it though since our implied odds must be very negative and I think we are behind more often than we are ahead. I am probably calling down until I see a club or a king.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

Edit: it cant be RIO cos pot is big i have maked mistake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i did stove ...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

UTG : 6,6%
villian : 36%

16,653,126 games 0.578 secs 28,811,636 games/sec

Board: 4c 8c Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.023% 15.08% 00.95% 2510520 157815.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 52.213% 50.85% 01.36% 8468154 226881.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 31.764% 30.66% 01.11% 5105526 184230.00 { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


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Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

so if we have 15% equity
and 14:1 pot odds ~~ 6,6% then we can call flop probably

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

[ QUOTE ]
anyone care to put UTG on a raise/call range and then do some maths and work out what what percentage of that range has a club in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is raising like 88-JJ, AT-AQ and KQs and not capping. That's 61 hands total, of which 36 have aces, 3 are 88, and one is KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Of the remaining 21 hands (99-JJ, non-club KQ), 9 have clubs. So we are currently ahead of 21 hands (34%), but 9 (16%) have a club redraw against us. With two streets to go, that gives us 18%+8% pot equity under the most optimistic of scenarios (plus some small chance we suck out). Getting 14:1 you could call if you are a rosy-eyed optimist, and assume villain autoraises even 99-JJ and non-club KQ on this flop, and that SB has total trash.

BTW -- to answer your question directly, 9 of the 36 ace hands also have a club. So 19 total club hands out of 61 total.

[ QUOTE ]
call me crazy but early in a session I'd probably made a call here EVEN if I thought it were -EV partly because I dont want anyone who is paying attention to start making moves against me. I want to keep everyone in line playing dumb, nice and predictable poker cos thats +EV for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 1 SB investment in your image.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

[ QUOTE ]
I used 6% for UTG and 40% for the other villain. I don't think I could raise it though since our implied odds must be very negative and I think we are behind more often than we are ahead. I am probably calling down until I see a club or a king.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're mistaking UTG's equity for hero's

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

[ QUOTE ]
so if we have 15% equity
and 14:1 pot odds ~~ 6,6% then we can call flop probably

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that this isn't necessarily correct, but what major assumption does your 15% equity rest on?

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

we win this until river 15% of times
and we have to invest at flop only 6,6 of the current pot (1SB)
but at turn we still need invest (1BB) and also at river where we have to invest (next 1BB) - its true
so we have to more invets then 1SB at flop to win it 15% of times

can anybody analize this clearly ? (im not sure i make good thinking)

so fold or call this flop ??? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

Did you stove this? I am certainly capable of error but during the discussion I repeated the stove calcs several times and can't find my error if I am making one.

EDITED TO ADD: SO SORRY. I found my error. I was using preflop equity because I hadn't entered the board cards DOH. Non of my opinions hold up here [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] sorry

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

[ QUOTE ]
we win this until river 15% of times
and we have to inwest at flop only 6,6 of the current pot
but at turn we still need inwest and also at river where we need more inwest - its true

can anybody analize this clearly ? (im not sure i make good thinking)

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ, what I was getting at is that you used villain's pf range to asses your equity post-flop. Is that same pf range of hands still realistic based on the board and the action?

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

ye, action at flop makes range much more narrow

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I think u should fold. An A is a big part of a TAGs range here. U probably drawing to one out maximum.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

I fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I call and c/f unimproved on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you are doing this because you think you're behind and can draw to the best hand, it's not a good plan.

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

clear fold, this hand is poor and you're likely behind + reverse implied odds and virtually no chance to improve...

Re: QQ and a monotone board
 

calling a raise is a loser here--one of them probably has an A, or any club is getting there 1/3 times. We effectively only have one out. This is the easiest bet/fold ever.