POTW college football
 

Going through a bad strech the last two weeks. I need your guys picks of the week this week to get me back on track. What are your picks?
Right now i like:
Oregon -12
@ Arizona

Maryland + 7.5
@FSU

Oklahoma -8
@ Texas Tech

Florida Atl
@ Florida -34

Missouri -7
@ K State

Re: POTW college football
 

Definitely Florida Atl +35 (buy +1 pt)

Re: POTW college football
 

I'd stay away from Ore/ari. I've been watching pac10 games all year and while Oregon offense is that good, Arizona offense is pretty good too. Oregon defense is NOT that good. My initial instinct was to bet arizona on this one, but sagarin numbers have convinced me to simply stay away from the game. I'm likely to bet the other side of Kstate/miz. In fact, the only bet I think you have the right side of is Maryland @FSU, but I don't really like that bet as I think FSU has underperformed all year according to their talent level.

My POTW was Ball State tonight. Two other games I have particular fondness for are Utah St. (ML and points) and No Ill +15.5. I have trouble seeing Navy's defense allowing their rather impressive offense to beat anyone by more than 2 TDs.

Re: POTW college football
 

[ QUOTE ]
Going through a bad strech the last two weeks. I need your guys picks of the week this week to get me back on track. What are your picks?
Right now i like:
Oregon -12
@ Arizona

Maryland + 7.5
@FSU

Oklahoma -8
@ Texas Tech

Florida Atl
@ Florida -34

Missouri -7
@ K State

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With all due respect, I think you'll continue to struggle as long as 60% of the games you like involve road favorites.

Best of luck,

hd

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I know road favorites aren't the right way to go, but i am just looking for 1 game and i didn't see that many great lines this week.

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Why aren't you guys on Missouri? They have been playing well the last few weeks and K State is terrible. Just look at the Nebraksa game. K-State has played good at home, but the only good game they played at home was Kansas. While Missouri is 3-0 Ats on the road this year. I know that there is a possible look ahead to Kansas, but i don't think this will happen because they can't drop a game if they want to get into the Big 12 chapionship game.

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Why aren't you guys on Missouri? ...I know that there is a possible look ahead to Kansas,

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Laying 7 on road to decent home team that almost beat Kansas? Can't imagine. Is it a lock?

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Don't think it is a lock per say, Missouri beat a good home team @colorado 55-10. Not saying i am taking this pick, maybe its one of those to good to be true.

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You convinced me. Definitely not a lock but there's plenty of value there. I also like Cal -7 @ Wash minus Jake Locker

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I know that road favs aren't the best way to go, but every week there are 2 or 3 games where you could get great value. Such as last week Air Force and Kentucky.

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Of those games you listed, I really like Oregon -12. I bet about 70% dogs, but I still really like the Ducks this week. Arizona's being given more credit than they deserve because of their 3-4 conference record when if you include MOV and their non-conference games, they're actually the 2nd worst team in the Pac-Ten. This should be similar to the Stanford game Oregon won by 24 or the Washington game that UO won by 21.

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Iggy, I'm betting Oregon, but I gotta say as a Duck fan this is the most dangerous game remaining on Oregon's schedule. Our defense likes to give up big passing plays and Arizona's qb is a pretty decent passer. As to the Stanford and Washington games ... you actually saw those games, right? The one where Stanford led in the second quarter, and the one where Washington matched the Ducks score for score until the 4th? It would have been very, very easy to Oregon to fail to cover in either of those two games. That said, Oregon's beat the spread this season every single game except Cal, and I think the Ducks win by more than 12 more often than not here.

(If I could stomach betting against my own team, I would parlay the Arizona ML with the over, as I think that's the only way Arizona ever wins here.)

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at -11 and falling the Ducks must be even better value!

edit: no opinion, but I'll take +12 while it lasts since something is def moving the lines.

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Exactly Naj,

I love my zona +12.

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Iggy, I'm betting Oregon, but I gotta say as a Duck fan this is the most dangerous game remaining on Oregon's schedule. Our defense likes to give up big passing plays and Arizona's qb is a pretty decent passer. As to the Stanford and Washington games ... you actually saw those games, right? The one where Stanford led in the second quarter, and the one where Washington matched the Ducks score for score until the 4th? It would have been very, very easy to Oregon to fail to cover in either of those two games. That said, Oregon's beat the spread this season every single game except Cal, and I think the Ducks win by more than 12 more often than not here.

(If I could stomach betting against my own team, I would parlay the Arizona ML with the over, as I think that's the only way Arizona ever wins here.)

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Well, the Oregon/Stanford game wasn't on TV anywhere except Eugene. I remember because Oregon was one of my larger bets that week and I was trying to follow the score on GameCast while I watched a movie.

Still though, wasn't the general story of the game "Oregon lets down after getting an early lead on the road, then blows Stanford away in the 2nd half when they realize they could be in danger of losing? That was the week before the Cal game too and I think that motivation was a definite issue.

The Arizona game is on national television, coming off a bye, and I think the Ducks should absolutely be motivated to give 100% effort.

With all that said, this line isn't moving on air, and it doesn't appear to be moving on public money either. I feel way less confident about Oregon covering 11 with this line movement than I would about them covering 14 if that had been the opener and had held all week.

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Shouldn't Kent be better then Pick against Temple. Take away 3 points for being a road team and I would think Kent should still be at least a FG favorite.

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Shouldn't Kent be better then Pick against Temple. Take away 3 points for being a road team and I would think Kent should still be at least a FG favorite

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Why? They are both 3-7 overall against similar schedules and Temple is 3-3 in conference vs 1-5 for Kent.

FYI- line opened Kent -2.5 and has been bet down all week.

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Why aren't you guys on Missouri? They have been playing well the last few weeks and K State is terrible. Just look at the Nebraksa game. K-State has played good at home, but the only good game they played at home was Kansas. While Missouri is 3-0 Ats on the road this year. I know that there is a possible look ahead to Kansas, but i don't think this will happen because they can't drop a game if they want to get into the Big 12 chapionship game.




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KSt is not good but they are not terrible either and I would expect them to play hard this week at home after being embarassed last week at Nebraska. Kinda like how Nebraska played hard at home last week after being embarassed at Kansas the previous week.

Add in the possible Missouri look ahead factor and I'll pass on laying over a TD on the road. Missouri in a close one imo.

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Oh, yeah, I sometimes forget how horrible the PAC-10's TV deals are. You're right about the overall feel of the Stanford game ... was probably just a trap game for them.

About Oregon's effort: They are definitely prepared for this game. I'm not worried about them looking past Arizona. Last year's loss at Autzen was awful and I guarantee every single player remembers it. I was listening to Bellotti on the air this week and it seemed he had really imparted his players with a sense of what this game meant.

As to the line movement: I don't think the books have any idea how to handicap Oregon's games this season. The fact that the team is 8-1 ATS this year is evidence of that (yes, they've wildly outperformed expectations but shouldn't the lines have started reflecting this by the time of the Washington State game, at least?) So I'm not worried about the line shift at all.

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I don't see how Oregon is gonna be anymore motivated for this game than Arizona. Arizona has everything to gain and Oregon has everything to lose. How many times have we seen this same scenario play out this year? Its at Arizona, they are on national tv for the first time in how ever long. Both are coming off byes. Motivation can not be used as a factor in betting any team in this game. Honestly, I see this game something like 42-31. Furthermore, with several of the points you brought up, a late back door cover does not seem unlikely here.

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Oregon has to go out and CRUSH people if it wants to play for the national championship because the computer is going to probably put the winner of the Big 12, (Kansas or Oklahoma) ahead of them because they would have beaten the other highly ranked team.

This factor should be considered, and its why I am on the Ducks.

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Ok, just because you guys are driving me nuts here. Lets look at something regarding the "stupidity of the books." Oregon has been favored all but 1 game this year. Now, right now on SI. I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

Anywho, So far this year, oregon has only had this much of the public on them 1 time against stanford. Every single game they have been favored in this year the line has moved to increase the spread not decrease it. 63% of public against ASU it moved 1 point. 46% on them against USC still moved .5. Against Washington they only had 39% and it still moved from -11 to -12 (I played Oregon here by the way). 76% against WSU moved 2 points. 54% against cal moved 2.5. 90% stanford (but lower on the ML somehow) moved 1 point. You get the picture. Now, are the books so [censored] STUPID that after getting beat all year (8-1) as someone pointed, even though they moved the line increasing the spread, that they are all of a sudden going to decrease it for no good reason. Give me a break. If the books are that stupid, then we would all be millionaires. Just as I have said a million times before, if I lose this, then so be it, I wont make a peep and Ill take my 5 unit loss just like I did on Vandy. However, I will never ever believe Im smarter than the books.

Runner Runner,

You argument is weak here because all teams like Ohio State, BC, USF, etc, etc. Was win against inferior opponents, not even "CRUSH" them, yet they arent in the title picture.

Listen I want Oregon to win this game. I have them at 90-1 to win it all, which I posted on this forum at the beginning of the year, go back and look. I've known they were nasty since day 1 and have bet on them several times. However, I don't pretend to be smart than the books, just smarter than the general public.

BTW, DOWN TO 10.5 at Cris, hit it up.

Re: POTW college football
 

Bodog was still showing it as +12, but dropped it to +11.5 when I logged in. Still went ahead and put 2u on Arizona. I agree with rush66's logic here for the most part.

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I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

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Is auto-fading BSPs in NCAAF as +EV as it appears to be with the NFL?

Re: POTW college football
 

Bob,

In my personal opinion it is successful, but not as successful as the NFL, because I feel that the bookmakers put the most effort into the NFL and shade lines more effectively as well.

FWIW, This line is down to 10 at Pinny and 10.5 at most place. Though some can get 11.5 at SIA and if you get the juicy line at Bodog you can get that too, so if nothing else you can create a middle. I see some people claiming this line move is because of Dr. Bob, Lang, and some other touts. I could see this from bob, however I haven't seen Lang move a line 3 points ever. More importantly, the line opened at 13 on Sunday and was hit down to 12 on Sunday within a few hours of opening(well before any play releases). It ended up on 11 yesterday, which was before Lang's release. Dropped to 10 today. That those numbers for what they are worth but the majority has been on Oregon all along.

As I said before I feel this game will end up around 11ish, with perhaps even a back door cover, which is most likely in my opinion. I do know if you got 12 or better on arizona you got a great number. If you can find a 9 out there somewhere on Oregon, Id be tempted to take that. I saw 12.5 at SIA for about 8 minutes today, before someone slammed it back down...I wish that were me.

Re: POTW college football
 

Disclaimer: Oregon homer who isn't actually betting on the game here.

I think there are a lot of reasons to stay away from this game, including uncertainty about Dixon, and questions about consistency for both teams (yeah Dixon has looked great this year, but don't forget last year, reversion still isn't impossible, while Arizona has been way up and down). If you want to be a square and include "motivation" as a factor, I think it's just as up in the air, both teams have reasons why they might be fired up and reasons why they might come out flat.

All that being said, I can't quite figure out why the line is plummeting this fast. Those were reasons to lay off the game in the 12-14 range, but at -10 I don't know how your pick could be anything but the Ducks. I don't think I'm smarter than the books, and I realize there must be a reason for this line movement, but in this case I can't figure out what it is.

Also, the line I *really* like in this game is Oregon -3 for the first quarter. I think that of the time Arizona does cover a significant number will be due to either a bad second quarter (ala Stanford) or a backdoor. I think that out of the gates, Oregon is much more likely to win the first quarter than any other individual quarter, and will be *very* shocked (in the sense that I think it only happens 40% of the time the bet doesn't push) if they're trailing, tied, or up 1-2 at the end of the first quarter. I definitely think Oregon in quarter 1 is the most EV play this game has to offer at the moment.

Edit: Oregon First Quarter Results (YTD)
Houston: W 14-7
@Michigan: W 11-7
Fresno State: W 21-6
@Stanford: W 21-3
California: W 3-0
Washington State: W 17-0
USC: W 7-0
Arizona State: W 14-3

I don't know what the 1Q line on each of those games was, but they covered 1/4th of the game line in all of them.

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I already have a ton of Oregon but at 10 I am tempted to add again.

Even if I got bad numbers before, it is really hard for me to make any sort of case for Zona at 10.

Re: POTW college football
 

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I see 77% of people on the spread, 97% on ML (crazy), and 82% with this in a parlay. Now, the books have dropped the line from 13 to 11. The books are really stupid ya know, since the public wins and the books go out of business.

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Is auto-fading BSPs in NCAAF as +EV as it appears to be with the NFL?

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24-11 ldo, but I'll take the free 2pts on SIA anyday. [added and added ML, but unposted so uncounted.]

Re: POTW college football
 

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Oregon has to go out and CRUSH people if it wants to play for the national championship because the computer is going to probably put the winner of the Big 12, (Kansas or Oklahoma) ahead of them because they would have beaten the other highly ranked team.

This factor should be considered, and its why I am on the Ducks.

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Doesn't Arizona come equipped with a 'crush' switch?