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-   -   $75 TURBO MTT (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=467203)

ForRealDD 08-02-2007 03:53 AM

$75 TURBO MTT
 
Our M is 3.8. Standard shove, or fold? This is a turbo tournament.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3129833151: $18,000 Guarantee (23871702), Table 32 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:45:05 ET - 2007/08/02
Seat 1: DallasRounder (21,811)
Seat 2: _ll_ausar_ll_ (34,949)
Seat 3: dolohov (32,220)
Seat 4: LUCKY FOX (25,241)
Seat 6: EVOGO2HELL (33,317)
Seat 7: boredddddddddd (59,741)
Seat 9: Grave Danger3 (55,923)
DallasRounder antes 300
_ll_ausar_ll_ antes 300
dolohov antes 300
LUCKY FOX antes 300
EVOGO2HELL antes 300
boredddddddddd antes 300
Grave Danger3 antes 300
LUCKY FOX posts the small blind of 1,200
EVOGO2HELL posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DallasRounder [Qd 8d]
boredddddddddd folds
Grave Danger3 folds
DallasRounder ??

Tackleberry 08-02-2007 04:14 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
I would shove. If you get called, you should have a good chance not to be dominated.

chh 08-02-2007 05:16 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
you have an M of 4, are in the BB again soon, 2 ppl have already folded and you have a somewhat decent hand and your stack could hurt the BB a lot... why even ask :P

08-02-2007 05:26 AM

Post deleted by Ryan Beal
 

kommunizt 08-02-2007 06:24 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
you shoved and lost.

standard.

levAA 08-02-2007 09:00 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
borderline but a fold.

its slight -EV

only on a very tight table this turns up to be +EV but still borderline.

chh 08-02-2007 09:09 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
this cant possible be a fold, we have only 2 more hands before we're in the BB again. I'm not saying it's +cEV, but it's a risk we *have* to take here

levAA 08-02-2007 09:21 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
this cant possible be a fold, we have only 2 more hands before we're in the BB again. I'm not saying it's +cEV, but it's a risk we *have* to take here

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand your argument, if it is not +EV it's a bad move. you have 9BB and a M of about 4, this means you are looking for spot to move in.
lower M means your opening requirements go down because the blinds get larger compared to your stack.
it doesn't mean that you should move your chips in in -EV situations.
if you pass the blinds and are in the same situation next orbit this becomes a clear push - cause your M is down to 3.

Tackleberry 08-02-2007 09:35 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
borderline but a fold.

its slight -EV

only on a very tight table this turns up to be +EV but still borderline.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you underlay this?

I made some very rough (!) calculation and it seems that it gets breakeven if all of the remaining opponents have a calling-range of 20% or higher. With 15% it already slightly gets +EV (~ 1k) and I donīt expect 15% to be overly tight ...

levAA 08-02-2007 10:07 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
borderline but a fold.

its slight -EV

only on a very tight table this turns up to be +EV but still borderline.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you underlay this?

I made some very rough (!) calculation and it seems that it gets breakeven if all of the remaining opponents have a calling-range of 20% or higher. With 15% it already slightly gets +EV (~ 1k) and I donīt expect 15% to be overly tight ...

[/ QUOTE ]

made the calculations with "SnG Power Tools" with tight, loose and a mix of opponents.
only with all the opponents being tight it becomes +EV - and here just about 0,2%

chh 08-02-2007 10:34 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this cant possible be a fold, we have only 2 more hands before we're in the BB again. I'm not saying it's +cEV, but it's a risk we *have* to take here

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand your argument, if it is not +EV it's a bad move. you have 9BB and a M of about 4, this means you are looking for spot to move in.
lower M means your opening requirements go down because the blinds get larger compared to your stack.
it doesn't mean that you should move your chips in in -EV situations.
if you pass the blinds and are in the same situation next orbit this becomes a clear push - cause your M is down to 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, with a very low M, like here, you can't just wait for huge +ev situations, because you're actually LOSING EV BY WAITING and a +ev situation might never come.
you're not looking for a definite +ev situation, you're looking to increase your stack to a point where you can actually play real poker again.
Besides, ppl will probably call pretty tightly here since your stack can still hurt most of them. However, as stated above, your fold equity will go way down after you pay another round of blinds

levAA 08-02-2007 10:43 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
well, with a very low M, like here, you can't just wait for huge +ev situations, because you're actually LOSING EV BY WAITING and a +ev situation might never come.
you're not looking for a definite +ev situation, you're looking to increase your stack to a point where you can actually play real poker again.
Besides, ppl will probably call pretty tightly here since your stack can still hurt most of them. However, as stated above, your fold equity will go way down after you pay another round of blinds

[/ QUOTE ]

i still disagree

basically as M goes down you get more and more situations where a push gets +EV, cause blinds increase compared to your stack.

but -EV is -EV and never turns up to be +EV.

the EV-calculations of course include the FE.

if you move in in -EV situations you loose money - it's really that simple.

lower M just means you get more situations you can play:
In this spot QTs for example is +EV - move in
72o is -EV - so skip it

you have to find the edges where a move is +EV and Q8s here isn't so skip it.

black666 08-02-2007 11:24 AM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
You have 4 people to go through ... that is a lot given the fact that half the table needs to find a spot to pick up blinds / double up.
Fold Q8s and shove any 2 in the SB or CO.

ForRealDD 08-02-2007 01:45 PM

Re: $75 TURBO MTT
 
[ QUOTE ]
you shoved and lost.

standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, but perhaps NVG would better suit you if you can't read and elaborate on a topic.


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