Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

I've been meaning to post this hand for a while but never got around to it. It is from the main event of EPT monte carlo.

It's the early in the first level so dont have a concrete read on the villain but by the way he handles his chips and the bit of chat he has made he does not seem like a very advanced or thinking player. I have been somewhat aggressive but nothing crazy and have not yet showed down a hand.

Blinds 25/50
Folds to me on the button I make it 175 with black KK, villain immediately raises to 675 out of the small blind, I decide to call.
Flop: qqj rainbow villain reaches for some chips then checks. I check behind.
Turn: 7, completes the rainbow. Villain bets 800 i call.
River: 7...

A) If villain checks are you value betting, if so how much?

B) If villain bets ~1600 call or fold?

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

A) Yes, ~1000. You'll likely get paid off here by a jack and occasionally 88-TT.

B) I'm pretty sure you have to call this since you have no read on him and he appears to be a donk, my guess is he has TT. Then again I don't play live much. I still think it's unlikely he hit a 7 because he re-raised pre, it's doubtful he had A7 there. He might have AQ but I still think you have to call here.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

I really dont think a jack is a very big part of his range at all, In my estimatio he is not the type to raise AJ in the early stages and definetly not KJ. Keep in mind that this is an older gentlemen who is really not that likely to be getting very out of line preflop.
Postflop however I dont really know what to make of...

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

Bet less PF,
Bet the flop to keep ur range wide
Raise the turn to 2000 since u checked the flop.
Fold the river.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

re raise with KK preflop. with aces you can sometime call to disguise your strength but with kings you don't know where you at when an ace flops. (if he has aces so be it)

I will certainly value bet if he checks. he wouldn't check the river if he had Q or 7 full. especially after your call on the turn.

now if he bets the river say 1600 it's a tough decision but I'll still make the call because there are too many hands you are beating.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

Why bet less PF? This is early stages of tournament, make it 200 to go since blinds so small relative to stack.

I just don't see how villain has a J here much of the time, unless its JJ. I agree with locutus that the turn is a great spot to turn up the heat. If villain has TT or something, you probably aren't going to get much more out of him anyway, and it might enable you to get to showdown cheaply. Obv you fold to a raise, and fold to a sturdy river valuebet

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet less PF,
Bet the flop to keep ur range wide
Raise the turn to 2000 since u checked the flop.
Fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

I think it's a pretty easy bet if checked to and a pretty easy call if he bets.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

ok, i can probably see how some are saying its an easy bet if checked to. But I completely disagree about an easy call. You really think that a player like the one i described is gonna bet 1010 on the river to try to get value from smaller pairs? What hands do you guys expect him to be turning over if he bets the river that we beat, besides AK for a bluff?

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet less PF,
Bet the flop to keep ur range wide
Raise the turn to 2000 since u checked the flop.
Fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd go 200 preflop
Flop check is good
Turn call is good
Call a river bet and value bet if checked to

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok, i can probably see how some are saying its an easy bet if checked to. But I completely disagree about an easy call. You really think that a player like the one i described is gonna bet 1010 on the river to try to get value from smaller pairs? What hands do you guys expect him to be turning over if he bets the river that we beat, besides AK for a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

But can't the same be said for hands that beat us? By your analysis, he can't have a seven, as he wouldn't get out of line with A7 or 77. If he wouldn't do this with AJ he definetly wouldn't do it with KQ. So the only queen he can have is AQ, which, still, is getting out of line pre-flop for a straightforward player like this, based on your read. I don't think he'd raise this much with queens and we can't just put him on quads so I'll discount this for now.

So the only hands that beat us are JJ and AQ. AQ is less likely since it's a big raise pre, which I doubt he'd make with AQ as a standard player who doesn't think too deep.

So, the only likely hand is jacks that bets here, whereas TT and 99 might make this bet, as well as AK. I think tens and nines are very likely with the big re-raise, he wants to win the pot pre-flop by getting you to fold. So, 3 hands that you beat, ~ 1.5 hands that you lose to, 2 hands if you really think he's strong here. Therefore, with the odds given, easy call IMO.

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

aa also beats us as does qq

Re: Live Monte Carlo KK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
aa also beats us as does qq

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but do those hands raise that much? Isn't a player without much thought going to try to raise for value here with QQ+ and try to pick up the pot by raising more with 99-JJ, AK?

Does his flop check really look like aces though? Again, to a non-thinking player he has top two pair... why not bet here? It's not like he's trying to slowplay with rockets, two queens are out there. And he won't be thinking about pot control.

I edited queens in right before I saw your post, this is very unlikely because of two queens on the board already, but is consistent with the flop check. However, you can't fold just because he might have QQ here.

But, keep up the arguing, I'm here to learn, anything making me think more is good.