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-   -   When they call three streets and then open pot the river? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=505511)

registrar 09-20-2007 04:05 PM

When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
Ladbrokes $5+a Villain is bad. First hand, he open limped a2o from utg+1 and then voluntarily showed when the hand was checked down to the river. I haven't played on Ladbrokes for a while but I always found the default style very tight (no antes, see). There is a bet pot option.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1705.00
UTG+1: $2000.00
UTG+2: $1960.00
MP1: $2040.00
MP2: $1960.00
MP3: $2090.00
Hero: $1970.00
Button: $1970.00
SB: $2315.00
BB: $1960.00

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
6 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $60</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $90)</font>.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($130, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $90</font>, BB calls $90 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $220)</font>.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($310, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $155</font>, BB calls $155 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $465)</font>.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($620, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $620</font>, Hero tries to remember what this means.

BarryLyndon 09-20-2007 04:12 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
Registrar,

It can mean a whole host of things, including a level one player with a 9, a bluffy spew tard trying to represent a 9 when he missed his flush, KQ, just a missed flush, Q10, or a slow played FH with JJ. At 2:1, I think you have the best hand here enough to call and hope it's one instead of the other, especially considering that the hands he could be bluffing with + hands he could be "trapping" make 2:1 feel fine here.

PS: I bet closer to like 210 on the turn, since the 8 doesn't look like a card that helped.

Barry

cheburashka 09-20-2007 04:34 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
I'm not in the business of giving Registrar advice, so more for my benefit...

First, I would probably fold KJo pre unless I had a lot of reads on the table (my lowest open-raising hands here from CO would be KJs or KQo--please tell me if that's terribly nitty). Second, having hit a great flop with a (to my mind) pretty marginal hand, I would value bet the [censored] out of it to get rid of f*** knows what kinds of draws any villains might be on. 90 seems OK on the flop, but if there's still someone sticking around on the turn, I go at least 250 and maybe 300.

JoeyJoJo Shabadu 09-20-2007 04:36 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hero tries to remember what this means.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure looks like he flopped a straight. Slow play at an ABC level.

registrar 09-20-2007 04:43 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
About the turn, my feeling, although I haven't played the site for a while, is that he's calling a half pot bet with anything, including A-high, that's he's called flop and pf with and not folding a draw unless I bet 2x pot.

Of course, this plan, of keeping the pot small and outplaying him in position, somewhat falls down when he takes you by surprise by open potting on the essentially blank river and you get confused and fold.

black666 09-20-2007 04:48 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
I'd fold. A $5 donkey is not able to do deep level thinking. 99% of the time he plays his cards pretty straight forward ... so it's either a 9 where he hit gin on the river (J9, 98) or a slowplayed straight trying to get paid off big.

4CardStraight 09-20-2007 05:25 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
QdTd must be in his range here. of course so are a lot of hands with 9d. Ad,Ko, must also of course.

A bet pot after three calls is strong. It can of course be a whiffed draw. I think I would need to decide how often he bluffs this way. Maybe something like 1 in 5, so I muck, personally, all he needs is any old nine and hes ahead, and of course theres bigger hands out there too.

hrmmm. Ya know, from villains perspective, he can put you on ace king here, call with draws and blow you off on the river. Id have to think a small bet gets paid off by ace king an aweful lot here, so if he has anything he wants to showdown, you would really think he would bet smaller.

I'm changing my vote. call his arse!

4card.

BarryLyndon 09-20-2007 05:34 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
QdTd must be in his range here. of course so are a lot of hands with 9d. Ad,Ko, must also of course.

A bet pot after three calls is strong. It can of course be a whiffed draw. I think I would need to decide how often he bluffs this way. Maybe something like 1 in 5, so I muck, personally, all he needs is any old nine and hes ahead, and of course theres bigger hands out there too.

hrmmm. Ya know, from villains perspective, he can put you on ace king here, call with draws and blow you off on the river. Id have to think a small bet gets paid off by ace king an aweful lot here, so if he has anything he wants to showdown, you would really think he would bet smaller.

I'm changing my vote. call his arse!

4card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, add that to your list of reasons for calling. That's the biggest one, I should have said that - it's not only 2:1, it's that big river bet where they plan to hit, then they don't hit, then they say "well, that's what the TV pros do on the river, right*," then they bet the pot.

Not...to...mention that you have to factor in someone playing KQ this way a little bit. You get a lot of nervous PSBs from hands like this because it's TP2K and you HAVE to bet the river. Remember that you are exploiting mistake, and one mega common mistake $5 - $?? players make on rivers is to confuse showdown value for bet value.

*Wrong. TV Pros bet 1/3rd the pot on the river and get called down.

Barry

Frank Zappy 09-21-2007 09:56 AM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
If he's got a 9 or QT, wouldn't he CR or just shove?

It's a hand where you have to trust your gut because you can't tell anything from Villain betting pattern. He's calling Flop and Turn after PF raise with K and J on board holding only a 9?

That said, even though it looks and feels likes he got a 9 I think we pay him off.

donquay 09-21-2007 11:14 AM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
I don't think villain has a nine after calling flop and turn bets. At lower stakes an avg/below avg player will get super scared of a paired board (even if it doesn't make sense for their opponent to be calling down with bottom pair)...I think villain here is trying to exploit this "scare card"...I think the only way villain has a nine is if he called j9 or k9 in the bb.

J9/K9/QT are all possibilities but I find that lower stakes players don't like to slowplay when the flush draw is out there (they'll often overlook straight draws but often they'll bet to price out FD's)

anyways I think I'd call...a weak K wouldn't shock me (just because calling K3 sooted isn't a call many of us would make, it's not out of the ordinary at these stakes...oh yeah villain already has shown he'll open limp a2o...a sooted K would look great to him)

Sherman 09-21-2007 01:26 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
I'd always fold here in a cash game b/c this line is always a very strong hand by the river.

[ QUOTE ]
If he's got a 9 or QT, wouldn't he CR or just shove?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. He has no reason to believe that Hero will bet again. Most villain's think like this: "I have to slowplay." Then by the river, they realize that they are OOP and can't slowplay anymore. So they make a big bet.

[ QUOTE ]
First, I would probably fold KJo pre unless I had a lot of reads on the table (my lowest open-raising hands here from CO would be KJs or KQo--please tell me if that's terribly nitty).

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah. This is a raise here. I am open-raising a ton of [censored] in this CO with stacks this deep.


As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even. I'd say about 10% of the time he is FOS, and the rest he has us in trouble. So I'd really try hard to get myself to fold.

erc007 09-21-2007 03:01 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
Not sure what it means either...but i don't think that it means that we're beat enough times to fold. I don't think that 9c improved his hand. but who knows?

Unless you have 2-barrelled consistently, your line looks pretty strong, so why would BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8? A9dd is possible, b/c donks don't play their pair+FD hands aggressively.

TFGoose 09-21-2007 03:45 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8

[/ QUOTE ]

Because Hero may check behind on that river, and villain wants to make more money on the hand.

--TFGoose

erc007 09-21-2007 03:55 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB break his slowplay line here and bet the pot with a Str8

[/ QUOTE ]

Because Hero may check behind on that river, and villain wants to make more money on the hand.

--TFGoose

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx for the clarification [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]...i would expect a value bet to be 1/2-2/3 pot with a strong hand that wants a call, unless villain is levelling (doubtful given OP's read) - thinking PSB will look more like a bluff.

registrar 09-21-2007 04:02 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're good around this much. It's nuts or nothing obviously (with nuts being whatever excites him). FWIW, he bet pretty quick, but I also can't decide what that means either.

Sherman 09-21-2007 04:49 PM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river...we have to win 1/3 times to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're good around this much. It's nuts or nothing obviously (with nuts being whatever excites him). FWIW, he bet pretty quick, but I also can't decide what that means either.

[/ QUOTE ]

So since we are never raising for value against him and you think we are better than 33% to win, we have an EZ call...correct?

registrar 09-22-2007 06:20 AM

Re: When they call three streets and then open pot the river?
 
Every time I consider this hand I think differently. He's bluffing sometimes and he's making an ill-conceived value with worse bet a non zero %. It's not an easy call because we're good around 33% but to judge exactly is impossible. I would say that making a half pot bet on the turn on this site will be read as weakness. OTOH, the board's pretty scary to bet into.

So at the time, I wasn't sure. After watching the guy some more, I'm fairly sure that he had what he considered to be the nuts.


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