is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

cause i pass the 7 and 10 and 11 mark

same goes for -11.5/-12.5

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

Assuming we are talking about the NFL here, the 11 is a fairly uncommon number and gaining the 6 is much better, though still not +EV.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11. Whether or not 9 is more common than 10, is irrelevant as you are crossing a bunch of less common numbers. 6.5 to 11.5 crosses 7,8,9,10,11. .5 to 6.5 crosses 1,2,3,4,5,6. You probably gain more value with .5 to 6.5 than 6.5 to 11.5. Six points is always big, but the greater advantage comes with the lower numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, but games that have a line of -6.5 will have a higher distribution of 10 and 11pt games than games that have a line of -2.5

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.

Where do you people get your information?

FWIW In GENERAL don't tease these, a straight bet or some other bet is going to offer more +EV. There are times to teaser them particularly if you need additional legs in teasers to round robin or w/e, but in GENERAL, don't.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

uh, where do you get your information? I was speaking with no knowledge of facts - just an understanding of mathematical distributions. I'd be eager to look at a graph using real data points.

kyro,

You are, of course, correct.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

ty

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh... 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are definitely not as common as the 10.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

hedgie,

I almost included that link in my post too. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without actually looking at the data this is probably one of the worst teasers you can possibly make. If you have a +12 team or w/e, teasing up to 18 is an awful idea, you should be trying to either a.) Find a good price on +10.5 + or b.) Find derivative bets on that team such as 1H +7.5, other team under points, etc.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
rude, most games are close. I don't have this in front of me, but I imagine if you were to look at a bell curve of final score margin of victory, the most common results would be closer to zero. While you do see spikes at 3 and 7, I imagine that 1,2,4,5,6,8,9 are all more common than 10,11.

[/ QUOTE ]

All this data is in the Smart Pro Football Handicapping PDF linked in the FAQ

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, looking at page 131. 13 is just as common as 7. Teasing over the 13,14,17 should be more powerful than teasing over 3-7? Or is it that the SD is smaller when the spread is smaller?

[/ QUOTE ]


Page 131 is postseason. You want regular season.


Look at Page 147, Regular Season Overall Margins of Victory.

3: 16.11%
7: 9.77%
10: 6.45%
6: 5.66%
14: 4.39%

If you want to see it graphically, look at page 82, overall margin of victory for regular season (Figure 5.1)

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

Uh, just so you guys know, I would NOT be using the numbers Performify gave as true push %s for those spreads.

It looks like for instance the 3 is counting 3 on both sides, and doesn't selectively look at games lined around 3.

Take it for what it is.

Re: is there value in teasing +5.5/6.5 teams 6pts?
 

Correct, Ganchow's Push Frequencies post linked above are the push numbers.

The numbers I gave above are pure margin of victory for the NFL, which is what we were talking about here ("bell curve of final score margin of victory")