Bottom set on coordinated board
 

I can't figure this one out, hope you guys can help. This is my first post, so please be gentle...

Early in a live tournament in Europe(1k buy-in, 200 players), 3rd level (30/60), levels are 40 min. I have around 9,000 in chips.

Guy to my right in MP (similar stack, tight, solid as I could see so far) raises to about 200 (maybe 240, can't remember the exact amounts). I look down and have 10-10. I flat call the raise. Button calls as well. This guy was hard to figure out at that early stage, he was flat calling a lot of raises preF, and would always bet the flop if he led out or if it was checked to him. He had me covered. Flop comes

Ks Qd 10d

Guy to my right bets out 300. I raise to 1000. Button then comes over the top for 3000. Initial bettor folds and action to me. What's my play?

This is the first time I saw this guy raise a flop, and I didn't have a clear read on him, but obviously have to give him credit for a hand in the face of the bet and raise.

Raise, call or fold? It's still pretty early in the tournament.(Please feel free to comment on whether I should have raised PF.) I look forward to your comments. Thanks in advance.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

pretty sick spot. I'd throw out all other sets here because Id certainly see a squeeze with QQ or KK from the button 3-handed. Id say the reraiser's range is probably KJdd, AJ, J9..maaaybe some sort of 2-pair if he is an idiot. Im always finding myself calling the flop raise and praying for the board to pair, and or a scare card to hit to get a cheap showdown, but I think the right play is a fold.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

Hey guys, I didn't get many replies to this which makes me think that either a) I didn't provide enough info; b) this was a no-brainer; or c) everyone agrees with Great Kerblini (tks btw).

Please let me know which one it is. If it's a), I can try provide more, if it's b) or c), you can let me know because I struggled in this spot quite a bit.

Thanks in advance,

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

sick, it really comes down to how bad you think the guy is (would he get all in with 2 pair here). At this stage of the tournament tho readless, i probably fold the set of tens here. o and the flatcall is fine preflop

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

As a previous poster mentioned, I can't see this being KK or QQ. Decent chance this is AJ, but this can be soooo many hands that you're crushing (two pairs, combo draws) that there's no way I lay this down. I push while the pushing is good.

Also, I'm fine with the call preflop.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

I don't think that this is a sick spot at all.

I think that this is a pretty straight forward and easy shove. The button could be profitably calling pf with a pretty wide range and his flop reraise narrows his range to something like:

8d9d, AdKd, KdJd, AdXd, AJ, J9, AK(if he is not good), TJo, QJo, KJo, KQ, KT, KK, QQ... and there are probably more hands that I am missing.

The fact that it is marginally correct for him to call your with AdXd means that shoving is > calling and reevaluating... especially since you are out of position.

If you were in position this would be closer to being a call though I might shove anyway. Another thing that makes this closer to a call is if you think that you can pick up a good read on him... despite the live advantage this is sill a shove though.

In general, this early in the tournament, cEV approximates $ev so tournament life should not be a concern of yours... you should make the play that will net you the most chips in the long run.

This is a fine first post, it probably just got lost in the shuffle, and there is no problem with you bumping it up after a couple days and only one reply.

Welcome to the forums!

Steve

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

I rejam here. He makes this play with a combo pair+draw, straight+flush draw, and two pair here. He has AJ or J9s here sometimes also but on this board I think you have to put it in. If he snaps calls just ask the dealer to pair the board for you.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that this is a sick spot at all.

I think that this is a pretty straight forward and easy shove. The button could be profitably calling pf with a pretty wide range and his flop reraise narrows his range to something like:

8d9d, AdKd, KdJd, AdXd, AJ, J9, AK(if he is not good), TJo, QJo, KJo, KQ, KT, KK, QQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is wayyy off. This player 3-bets pf with AKs, KK, QQ. This type of player also does not reraise post flop with AKo (???) J10off (??) QJo(??)..nor do I think 89dd or AdXd or KJoff. If you think the player is bad why dont u put 2d3d in there too.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

I too get it all in here, but i expect to see AJ a lot, but that's okay because i have 10 outs and when he doesn't have AJ i'm ahead since QQ/KK rarely flat behind you in a live tournament.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

[ QUOTE ]
I too get it all in here, but i expect to see AJ a lot, but that's okay because i have 10 outs and when he doesn't have AJ i'm ahead since QQ/KK rarely flat behind you in a live tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

I'm like... never folding here because you can be ahead and even when behind it's not by much. Stove it vs. any reasonable range and you'll see.

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

Thanks guys, very insightful. I ran a fairly conservative range in pokerstove as suggested (1st time I use it so I'm not sure I did it right), and it comes nearly 50-50.

Board: Ks Qd Td

Hand 0: 50.556% { TcTh }
Hand 1: 49.444% { AdKd, AJs, KQs, KdJd, KTs, QTs, J9s, AJo, KQo, KTo, QTo, J9o }

Obviously this is on the conservative side (did not include AdXd or KdXd - but also not KK and QQ).

My question is, this deep and early in the tournament, is it not better to wait for a better spot than engage in what seems to be (mathematically at least) a coin flip at this point? I understand that with the money already in, I'm only puttnig 44% of what I could win, but is that small edge (50 vs 44) sufficient to gamble this early?

As you may have guessed, I folded (expecting to see AJ) and didn't get a hand/hit flop with a few exceptions and ended up busting 50th or soemthing. So maybe I should have pushed the small edge there.

This has been really helpful to me so far, I'm just trying to learn more. Thanks again!

Re: Bottom set on coordinated board
 

Why are so many people including combo draws in his range?

He's seen a raise, and a re-raise on the flop, so he's gotta think you guys are pretty strong, and then he raises, but doesn't push. Does he really want someone pushing back at him if hes got something like KJ on this scary a board?

I think the flop action makes this more likely to be a made hand that is afraid of the draws than a combo.

So I'd say range was more like AJ, KQ, K10...

That said, I think its probably a push, because against this range you are still pretty good and if the board pairs you wont know whether it has just saved you or [censored] you, and its going to hard to get AJ to pay your FH.