Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

ok so after dropping 72 bets in an hour at 1/2 and 2/4 to the most ridiculous stuff imaginable, i decided to move up to 5/10 and either busto or robusto my roll on this site. i am definitely playing lag and a bit aggro (i had another 2p2er sweating me and i don't think he'd say i was playing bad/tilty here but definitely a bit more aggro than normal).

here are two spots i got into with AK. what do you guys think? on each tell me good, bad, okay, etc, and whatever other info you want.

my image is lagtag (about 32/25 7 handed for this table session) and everyone else are lp donks ranging from 40/10 to 50/3).

5/10 online playing 7 handed

hand 1

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font> ??


hand 2

5/10 online also 7 handed

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font> ??


thanks guys. how many outs do you estimate i have on each hand?

edited to add the angry face icon.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

Very quickly. Hand 1 - bad spot to bet out.

Hand 2 - Peel dont raise.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

dont like either

check hand 1

call hand 2 (intending to call down ui and get 2.5BB from AJ/KJ)

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

* grunch*

Hand 1: I doubt betting is good. The hands we see fold are the ones which we beat- and the hands that call will be drawing to a winner or tie. I assign 4 outs to a straight and 1 out for each OC because of the drawy board - so 6 outs total.

Hand 2: I like the raise if it is for a free card. Again I think we got about 6 outs.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

1.
Betting out might clear some A outs from A9/AT, just maybe. K-outs we probably cannot clear as KQ isn't folding ever and KT/K9 have a gutshot. There's RIO on offer for our A/K outs. If our image is a LAGTAG and the villains are paying attention folds aren't as likely if you image was tighter.

It is pretty unlikely we have the best hand or equity edge here (somebody could stove this please) as that flop hits a lot of limping hands and hard. We are very unlikely to get a free card on turn with three villains still left to act behind us - even if they are passive.

I don't like the bet. Check and re-evaluate based on odds. Go aggro when you have a hand vs LP-donks.

Outs, J outs are obviously good and might offer good implied odds from donks having a K. However, I doubt all four Jacks are still in the deck. A and K outs are heavily tainted. 5-6 outs is my guess.
---

2.
It's a small pot, we probably aren't in the lead after BB donks and we are possibly pushing out SB with a worse hand than ours. However, raising for free card has its merits here vs. these passive villains.

I give Jacks 3.5 outs, overcards 2.5 (reverse domination, straights) + 1 for BDFD. 7 outs.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
hand 2
(intending to call down ui and get 2.5BB from AJ/KJ)

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think this is good vs loose passive donks?

I think a made TP-type hand is by far the most common hand here a passive villain would donk with.

Call flop yes, check outs on turn yes, but I wouldn't plan to show this down UI.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

at 5/10 i honestly believe this is AJ and exactly AJ like 70%+ of the time, another 10% this is KJ

babar pm me spoiler plz

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

Well if you can really put them on such a tight range with confidence your line is fine.

My level is 2/4 - 3/6 online and there I'd have to assume the donk from a passive villain most of the time means a made hand.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

:grunch:

Hand 1: Bad spot for a c-bet imo. That flop is too coordinated and it's a 5-way pot. There's a decent chance you'll get raised as well when you'd rather see the turn cheaply.

Hand 2: Just peel. I don't see what raising accomplishes.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

*Grunch - lol, just figured out what this meant *

Hand 1 - Board waayyy to scary to c-bet esp. with 5 players. I check, a king probably gives someone straight. I estimate 6-7 outs.

Hand 2 - check behind. fold river if hand doesn't improve. I estimate 11-12 outs.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

*grunch*
Hand 1 is a terrible flop for you.. two pair at the least is very likely here. since your hand doesnt have good equity at all(i consider it to be a marginal hand).. i would check and wait to see what develops behind me.

hand 2
I think that raising the flop is probably ok.
If he's a passive player that calls down alot, then I would take the free card on the turn..
I gave about 7 outs for hand 2.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

both are modest spew

dont play tilty imo

hand 2 isnt as bad as hand 1 tho

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

I just skimmed the other posts. Think I agree with the consensus that both plays are wrong. They're both the kind of plays I tend to make when tilty - easy to do I reckon but slight losers. As we're looking for folds in both cases, I think they're obv slightly worse if you have a generally LAGTAG image, and obv slightly worse if you are playing LP guys who like to call.

Hand one:
IMO just too many opponents to make the bet work. In a way I think the board has landed in the limpers' likely range. I think you could get folds out of underpairs and assorted crud, but too many will have some piece for us to take the pot down, or even to trim the field down to HU. I'm looking to check-call here. I'm guessing 6.5 outs on average.

Hand two:
Yeah, I would just call here. I think SB will often fold anyway and the BB might have given you a free card anyway if he is one of the LPs. I'm guessing 7.5 outs on average.

-----------------------

Mitke,

[ QUOTE ]
However, I doubt all four Jacks are still in the deck.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in this concept. But at the flop, before we bet, how can you say it's likely less than 4 jacks are left in the deck? 3 LP limpers, and LP limpers often have a jack?

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

afaik lagtag isn't the way to beat lp donks, except when you get to limits where even the donks need to be tricked. Furthermore, LP is a great adjustment vs lagtags...

hand 1: check flop y0

hand 2 iskinda interesting, you can't clean up outs by raising so i probably just call. you might get a free card though, so it's a toss-up.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mitke,

[ QUOTE ]
However, I doubt all four Jacks are still in the deck.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in this concept. But at the flop, before we bet, how can you say it's likely less than 4 jacks are left in the deck? 3 LP limpers, and LP limpers often have a jack?

[/ QUOTE ]

Allday Everyday, I think calling it a concept might be asking too much..

To answer: yes, that's what I was thinking: JT,J9,J8s,QJ,KJ, etc. is stuff I think a lot of LPs like to (open)limp with. Hence, my comment and perhaps a slight discounting of J outs.

Thinking it a bit further, there isn't much of a reason to assume that before we see how they react.

Further, thinking like this might lead to counting us to have too little outs and lose value in some spots. I'd be willing to discuss though if there are any spots where you actually should discount your outs because you assume some of them migth be in your villains hand?

E.g: EP raises, we cold-call with KQs in MP, another MP 3-bets (and maybe BTN caps). Flop comes JT2r. Can we assume to have 4 outs to the ace?

(This is going woefully off-topic though.)

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

Hand 1: bet and call one on the way back, pot is big enough to draw to just the gutter not to mention the possibilities of the A and/or K being good.

Hand 2: I think your hand here is strong enough to just call here and suck people in for xtra bets. Two overcards that are most likely clean and BDFD plus a gutter.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
(i had another 2p2er sweating me and i don't think he'd say i was playing bad/tilty here but definitely a bit more aggro than normal).

[/ QUOTE ]
Full disclosure: c'est moi. And I did, and still do, think you were way too aggro in these hands. We were talking about another hand where I recommended a turn check/raise and you argued against it because you wanted a showdown and not to get taken to 3-town. I think a similar situation applies here, because both of these flops have the potential to hit your opponents hard, and right now you have squadoosh.

I like the second better than the first, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. It forces SB into a bad decision if he's got a gutshot, and allows you to take a freebie if the turn blanks. The downside is that donktastic BB might three-bet you here, and you're [censored].

The first is just spewtacular, since at 10 BB the pot is too big to get anyone to fold whom you want out, and anyone who does fold is drawing thin anyway. Disadvantages to checking are that it turns your hand face-up, and increases the chances that you'll face two cold from a bet/raise behind you. But those are minor concerns; you don't want to put two bets in on this street anyway.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

yea on hand 1 i figured it's 10:1 already just for my gutter, and maybe my overs outs are somewhat good, so i didn't mind betting and felt i could withstand a raise, with good position to c/r everybody if i hit broadway on turn or riv

hand 2 i felt like i had a ton of outs and would definitely take the free card if warranted

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

I actually like the raise in hand 2. I think it fits in with some examples Stox gives in the "A high" chapter (sorry, i don't have the book here right now). You got TONS of outs, even if some are tainted.

Now hand 1 is not nice... "still got to cbet cbet everything in limit"... [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

I read your post and the hands. More words than you usually type in 10 posts combined.

I looked at your hands and read the posted responses. I have nothing to add to them.

Since you are one of the player/posters I genuinely respect I went back and reread several of you responses to posters regarding tilt. Your posts demonstrate a good understanding of the phenomena and cogent advice on dealing with it effectively. As I knew it would.(search tilt witin the last year) BIgBadBabar poster)

I didn't find any instance where you had advised anyone to fight tilt by angrily moving up in stakes. As my hero BBB might say WTF??? You have, however, frequently advised posters to take a break and or go way down in stakes to play through it.

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

bona, good post

basically since i'm not playing for a living any more (which i hope to write about in my 5k post) i'm more willing to take shots, and also the game was good. this site's roll started with a rb payment that i'd forgotten about, so i treated it as found money that i wasn't afraid to lose.

in general you're right that i understand tilt well and the ways to safely counteract it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

you're also right that it's usually not a wise course of action to move up when on tilt, and of course i freely admit that.

thanks for looking out.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
at 5/10 i honestly believe this is AJ and exactly AJ like 70%+ of the time, another 10% this is KJ

babar pm me spoiler plz

[/ QUOTE ]
it's AJ maybe 1-5% of the time.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

meh 95%+ of the time i guess on these im right, this time im wrong. whatever.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
meh 95%+ of the time i guess on these im right, this time im wrong. whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

83% of all statistics you read on the Internets are made up.

Re: Babar angry, at 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
meh 95%+ of the time i guess on these im right, this time im wrong. whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

83% of all statistics you in top scientific journals are made up.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

García-Berthou, E.; Alcaraz, C. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2004, 4, 13

New Scientist summary

Re: Babar angry, goes to 5/10 (2 AK spots)
 

hand one ... i don't mind the bet
if you check on this flop it can likely get raised and reraised (but less likely to be 3bet) ... i would rather bet and call one then check and be forced to fold

kind of hard to determine outs at this stage (no?) ... but you have 4 solid outs - and if raised and 3bet behind you that's all

hand 2

depends on villain ... i could just call here as we are likely behind but have a big draw and redraw (and if this other guy sucks then his "outs" could get us some more monies)... i play it either way though