25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

First the hand

PokerStars Game #11702263380: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2007/08/26 - 13:08:28 (ET)
Table 'Dembowska' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: $tinger 88 ($4950 in chips)
Seat 4: louisianaboi ($2896 in chips)
Seat 5: sweetluvin7 ($3788.50 in chips)
$tinger 88: posts small blind $25
LittleZen: is sitting out
louisianaboi: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to $tinger 88 [9c 9h]
LittleZen leaves the table
sweetluvin7: raises $100 to $150
$tinger 88: raises $350 to $500
louisianaboi: folds
sweetluvin7: calls $350
*** FLOP *** [2s As 4s]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: checks
*** TURN *** [2s As 4s] [9d]
$tinger 88: bets $750
sweetluvin7: calls $750
*** RIVER *** [2s As 4s 9d] [Ts]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: bets $2538.50 and is all-in
$tinger 88: calls $2538.50


Now my thoughts - I'm putting him on a weakish ace here. I think this range is skewed toward suited aces because he may fold weak offsuit aces preflop. I think he'd check back Ax7s on the river or at least bet smaller, and I really don't see KsJx or something taking this line. Thus, I call. Thoughts?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Who said he would turn Ax7s into a bluff

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

I meant just a weak Ace (misread OP's thought).

If he does infact have a weak ace and shoves this river, we cannot consider it for thin value...

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

How much do you know about the guy? It's 3-handed, he doesn't have a full buy-in, is he a regular?

I'm not sure that I agree with the range you're putting him on, i mean would he 4-bet KK-JJ with possible spades preflop everytime here? If not, is it not likely that he checks the flop w/ that kind of hand.

What about AxQs, i could very well see him checking that hand behind on the flop cause if he's ahead you are probably drawing very thin.
If he puts you on the kind of hand that you have, checking behind on the flop would seem to be the correct thing to do.

That said, I'm not saying that i think you were wrong to call, altough it's probably marginal. He could very well have the kind of hand that you're putting him on and since your line looks really weak it might be a good opportunity for him to bluff.

What kind of hand do you think he needs to have to make a valuebet of this size? As i said, i think it's marginal but I'm leaning towards a fold here.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

he's a regular and capable of lots I think, sorta donkish but I think he can turn Ax with no spade into a bluff.

KOD,

when you say he will check back with moderate showdown value, do you consider A7 no spade a hand with showdown value?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]


when you say he will check back with moderate showdown value, do you consider A7 no spade a hand with showdown value?

[/ QUOTE ]of course

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


when you say he will check back with moderate showdown value, do you consider A7 no spade a hand with showdown value?

[/ QUOTE ]of course

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't it?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

i dont know the dynamic of the game, but i doubt he ever has A7o here. likely made hands for him, are big Kx suited, KKs, QQs, and maybe JJs. If he has a bluff its going to be a suited ace, or maybe two kings or two queens with no spades, that he decided wasn't going to be good enough of the time to show it down. i wouldn't pay it off unless there was some history, in spots where they can't have "air" -- they have to have a hand with some showdown value minimum, i just don't give them credit for turning it into a bluff unless i see how they play first.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a bad idea to turn a made hand into a bluff when you still have a good amount of showdown value (which I think A7dd does).

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a bad idea to turn a made hand into a bluff when you still have a good amount of showdown value (which I think A7dd does).

[/ QUOTE ]Obv. sometimes it's more +ev to bluff than to just check down w/ showdown value.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a bad idea to turn a made hand into a bluff when you still have a good amount of showdown value (which I think A7dd does).

[/ QUOTE ]Obv. sometimes it's more +ev to bluff than to just check down w/ showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think this concept is unfamiliar to kod

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Yeah fair enough. Fwiw I agree with everything in Prev's post.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

played a lot w/ sweetluvin and I agree iw/ kod

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

since he probably bets almost every hand that beats you (esp with only 1 psb left), this call seems like an unfavorable parlay to me, even if he is "capable" of turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
since he probably bets almost every hand that beats you (esp with only 1 psb left), this call seems like an unfavorable parlay to me, even if he is "capable" of turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he shoves with Ax7s?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

call fold whatever. its purely situational and only you know whats best given the context of the session.

in mathematical terms we all know a fold is best.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
y'all know thats jman right?

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty sure it's not, he's got a similar stars name tho



... as for the hand, i think i actually like this line.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

jman is mrsweets, sweetluvin is a jerk

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

I think this depends on how light he is capable of value-shoving this river. If it's purely the nut flush or a bluff, then I think you can make this call if he is capable of turning different made hands into a bluff. If he is shoving Qs/Js etc it becomes pretty hard to make this call profitable.

I think overall I would fold the river though.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
since he probably bets almost every hand that beats you (esp with only 1 psb left), this call seems like an unfavorable parlay to me, even if he is "capable" of turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he shoves with Ax7s?

[/ QUOTE ]

well i don't know the guy, but i think he should, lots of people would, and he might. but even if it's like 50% that he shoves with the 7s, by the time you get to the 9s or Js, it has to approach 100%.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Results Stinger???

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

he had QsQ, one of the only made hands that makes sense imo...that being said he's probably not turning an ace into a bluff as much as I thought so I don't like my call

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

i think he has (or at least should have) Kxss some ok % of the time

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played with him some as well and I totally agree with this. When I read Stinger's initial logic it made sense and I tended to thin kcalling was OK. But the more I think about it I really think that a hand like ksx is very possible and even likely. Or a pair with a spade in it. I actually don't like a call here the more and more I think about it. Certainly not a no brainer fold here for sure though.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Would sweetluvin call with a hand like A7o? I tend to think that's pretty poor play to call reraises with bad offsuit aces. And considering the As comes on the flop the only way he can turn a bad ace into a bluff (to get you off AK, AQ, etc..) is by calling with Axo preflop, taking a reasonable line to the river, then shoving to get u to fold a small % of your range (big offsuit aces with no spade), when he can still beat a huge part of your range.
That said I think you've outthought yourself on this one, and I think it's a fold. His check behind on the flop also lends itself to him having a big spade in his hand (though perhaps not the Ks)