Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

I wouldn't want my money tied up for this length of time, but just for the sake of discussion, I just found this bet on Pinny.

Purely on merit (you need a huge edge to actually tie up your money for this long)

<u>Under 7650 players 2007 WSOP main event -104</u>

Lori

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

i posted this in this topic 5 days ago

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

I took Over at +107 and can't see how it misses. Hate tying money up for so long but the max was only $250.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i posted this in this topic 5 days ago

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry scorer, somehow managed to miss that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Lori

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

The first line pinny put up that I saw had the o/u at 6650. The under was +250. It got knocked down to a +120 in about 10 min, then they pulled the line.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650.

But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650.

But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]


It was lower before and the under was having great odds. I saw it at 7500 earlier.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650.

But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know exactly what I saw. It was 6650!!! The under was quoted at +250. And it got hammered!!!

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Well, that's pretty weird because it's the over getting hammered now. I took Over +107, which moved to -116 not long afterwards, and it's now at -125.

I'm considering hitting Under +109 now (though I'm not sure if I can after max betting the over earlier?). I was sure the over was a complete gimme, but now you guys have me second guessing myself.

The numbers of entrants has grown every year since '71 except for one minor hiccup about 15 years ago. The trend would have to not only slow down but significantly reverse itself for the under to have a chance here. The legislation that just passed need not take effect until next summer, and may not put any restrictions on Neteller use, which would make its effects rather limited.

I was present at the most recent WSOP and from the vibe I got out there, there's no indication this movement is slowing down. Everybody was once again surprised at having underestimated the amount of players.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

If the 6650 and Under getting pounded are accurate, then there are 2 explanations left, I suppose:

1) Over got re-hammered super-hard afterwards when you didn't see it, and then the line re-adjusted.

2) Pinny is smoking crack.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

I think they wanted to move it to a -108/-108 style line.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Yes, that makes perfect sense - if the Over was at like -300.

The only thing I was pointing out was that the poster couldn't have seen the Under 6650 at +120, and then have Pinny pull the line and replace it at 7650. Must have been a big hammering of the Over between the time he saw it and the bumping to the new line.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that makes perfect sense - if the Over was at like -300.

The only thing I was pointing out was that the poster couldn't have seen the Under 6650 at +120, and then have Pinny pull the line and replace it at 7650. Must have been a big hammering of the Over between the time he saw it and the bumping to the new line.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't always accurate. Pinny will hang an errant line. Catch huge action on it and just pull it instead of adjeusting.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, that's pretty weird because it's the over getting hammered now. I took Over +107, which moved to -116 not long afterwards, and it's now at -125.

I'm considering hitting Under +109 now (though I'm not sure if I can after max betting the over earlier?). I was sure the over was a complete gimme, but now you guys have me second guessing myself.

The numbers of entrants has grown every year since '71 except for one minor hiccup about 15 years ago. The trend would have to not only slow down but significantly reverse itself for the under to have a chance here. The legislation that just passed need not take effect until next summer, and may not put any restrictions on Neteller use, which would make its effects rather limited.

I was present at the most recent WSOP and from the vibe I got out there, there's no indication this movement is slowing down. Everybody was once again surprised at having underestimated the amount of players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see it getting to 6000 with the inevitable huge slowdown in online seats. Given that we don't know the buyin yet, or even if Harrah's will be under the same ownership, I think that over is very ambitious indeed.

Lori

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Eh, whatev. I just took the +109 to complete the 16 cent scalp. Might as well have put the money in the bank.

The line immediately shifted, as it did last time. Seems like the line moves wildly even if you just breathe on it.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]


I can't see it getting to 6000 with the inevitable huge slowdown in online seats. Given that we don't know the buyin yet, or even if Harrah's will be under the same ownership, I think that over is very ambitious indeed.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with the rest, necessarily, but I think to call a huge slowdown "inevitable" is jumping the gun.

As I've posted in the discussion in the legislation forum, i don't think this is going to actually affect the numbers of online poker in the negative much, if at all.

We've yet to see what actual effect the legislation will have, beyond Party and a couple other sites pulling out of the US Market. I see nothing in the legilation that will make it difficult to get money to poker sites.

In fact, if it ends up moving all the traffic to Tilt and Stars, we'll probably see some pretty significant growth as people find even better tournament structures there compared to Party. Party was never the best place to win a seat anyways...

Not to mention the potential possiblity of a carve-out for online poker or legalization of US-run sites (Harrahs/etc) prior to WSOP '07 which would make this a slam-dunk over IMO.

All in all, because of the high levels of uncertainty over the actual effect of the legislation, and because it's tying up money for so long, I'm certainly avoiding this.


/my $0.02

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Under 6900 -106

Surely this is a great bet for anyone who can spare $250 for a year.

Lori

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Really still fancy this

Edit: Shame it's not available anywhere [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Well someone's in for an exciting time on Betfair, I just took down all their enormous prices on under 7000.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Im expecting the number to be higher than last year. What was it last year?

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

8800+

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im expecting the number to be higher than last year. What was it last year?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really curious as to why it should be higher. My original post was based on the premise that online sites would give people money rather than seats. Now that is actually fact, I'm pretty sure that it should be considerably lower.

If I'm missing something I'd love to know though, I'm into this one pretty heavy.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

you're fine i'd put under 7650 at -500

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im expecting the number to be higher than last year. What was it last year?

[/ QUOTE ]



coolmoedee - unless you know something that almost everyone else does not there is almost zero chance they will have more entrants than last year.

Party isn't in the U.S. anymore.

FullTilt and Stars are just giving their players the cash because they can't buy-in for them.
Many of the players who win their seats online will just keep the cash and not attend. This had never been an option for them before.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

You guys are putting way too much value on websites not having american's. All that means is there will be more Euro's in the tourney filling their spot. The entrants have gone up massively every year have they not! Just because some sites aren't allowing US players, this means nothing. I have been in the online poker industry for 8 years and this boom is still going and more and more people want a shot at the highest title in poker. Watch for the number to be bigger than last year.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are putting way too much value on websites not having american's. All that means is there will be more Euro's in the tourney filling their spot. The entrants have gone up massively every year have they not! Just because some sites aren't allowing US players, this means nothing. I have been in the online poker industry for 8 years and this boom is still going and more and more people want a shot at the highest title in poker. Watch for the number to be bigger than last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will bet you for as high as you can count that you're wrong. We can make the market on Matchbook. PM me.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

coolmoedee I want some of that action too. I will offer you 8-1 odds. I have about $2400 available to put up against your $300 that it won't be a bigger main event this year than last year. PM me if interested.

-Brendan

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Obviously you guys are the favorite as everyone is thinking like you and I'm not sure enough to put that much money on it. I would be suprised if there isn't more entries this year than last. Lets leave it at that.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously you guys are the favorite as everyone is thinking like you and I'm not sure enough to put that much money on it. I would be suprised if there isn't more entries this year than last. Lets leave it at that.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he's offering 8-1 odds, so you only have to be right 11.1% of the time.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Try offering him 1-8 instead, that seems to be more his liking [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

if you guys saw some kid wearing a helmet and a quarter fell out of his pocket, would you take that too?

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Let's just put it this way: Last year I knew exactly 2 persons attending the WSOP ME, this year they're renting a house for 15.

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's just put it this way: Last year I knew exactly 2 persons attending the WSOP ME, this year they're renting a house for 15.

[/ QUOTE ]

So around 66,600 then?

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

TheOffice, so what you are saying is last year you knew of $20,000 in dead money in the ME, this year you know of $150,000 in dead money in the ME. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Brendan

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
TheOffice, so what you are saying is last year you knew of $20,000 in dead money in the ME, this year you know of $150,000 in dead money in the ME. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect to know at least $400,000 in prize money. Whatcha think about that?

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

paging imben

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

this thread is hilarious

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TheOffice, so what you are saying is last year you knew of $20,000 in dead money in the ME, this year you know of $150,000 in dead money in the ME.

-Brendan



[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect to know at least $400,000 in prize money. Whatcha think about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

damn, that would be $420,000 between us, it's going over for sure!

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
TheOffice, so what you are saying is last year you knew of $20,000 in dead money in the ME, this year you know of $150,000 in dead money in the ME. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect to know at least $400,000 in prize money. Whatcha think about that?

[/ QUOTE ]

You suspect to know at least.....? Do you mean expect? I don't care if ya "suspect" the Pope to be buying in, this isn't gonna be bigger than last year's ME.

Also who cares if you know 100 people going? Want a cookie?

-Brendan

Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
 

Hmm, OK, brendan. That was not asked for and I'm not sure what made you respond in the fashion you did. Perhaps you need the cookie or at least a quick toss to calm down.

Good luck.