55 UTG
 

Live $1500, blinds 400/800/100. I have 55 and 11.2K UTG 10-handed. Most of table has me covered. What is my play?

Re: 55 UTG
 

I can see different lines on this depending on reads and the table, but it's a borderline shove IMO. Once in a long time I'll see a person give away strength when looking at their cards, or notice a few people look at their cards and genuinely look displeased/disinterested, and it can make it a slightly easier shove or sway me towards folding, but with nothing to go on, I think it's a very borderline shove.

Sometimes if I'm playing with a bunch of people who know I should shove or fold, I feel like I can make the unusual play of raising and getting more fold equity than a shove, because all sorts of alarms go off in their heads and I'm representing a big pair that wants a call. They think "he knows he should fold or shove, we all know he should fold or shove... he *must* have a big hand and he wants a call!", and so against a table of these guys, I feel like I actually have more FE making a committing raise rather than just moving in.

Re: 55 UTG
 

This is a relatively standard fold unless the table is crazy tight

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a relatively standard shove unless the table is way looser than every live tournament I've played

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I'm not sure, but saying it's a standard fold is absurd with how nitty live players are

Re: 55 UTG
 

We're open shoving 55 UTG for 14BB's @ a 10handed table?

This seriously cant be good.

Re: 55 UTG
 

I think Folding>Raising 2.5-3x>Shoving

Re: 55 UTG
 

i fold

Re: 55 UTG
 

i fold. raise folding sucks. raise calling sucks more. shoving is prob slightly -EV.

Re: 55 UTG
 

wow fold

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
We're open shoving 55 UTG for 14BB's @ a 10handed table?

This seriously cant be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my point was just mainly that live players are incredibly nitty. As I said I'm not sure if this is a fold or not, it's pretty close which I'm sure is why betgo posted it.

Antes are huge though, 10 handed there will be 2200 dead in the middle, equivalent to about 750/1500 blinds with no antes so really we have an effective BB of under 8.

In live tournaments when antes are so large and players are extra nitty, I lean towards shoving I think. Raising is bad because you're UTG and live players just love to call stupid [censored] which you're always flipping vs. and you will be OOP and have no way to play the flop. Shove for FE or fold.

As I said with big antes and live nits I'm leaning shove.

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're open shoving 55 UTG for 14BB's @ a 10handed table?

This seriously cant be good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my point was just mainly that live players are incredibly nitty. As I said I'm not sure if this is a fold or not, it's pretty close which I'm sure is why betgo posted it.

Antes are huge though, 10 handed there will be 2200 dead in the middle, equivalent to about 750/1500 blinds with no antes so really we have an effective BB of under 8.

In live tournaments when antes are so large and players are extra nitty, I lean towards shoving I think. Raising is bad because you're UTG and live players just love to call stupid [censored] which you're always flipping vs. and you will be OOP and have no way to play the flop. Shove for FE or fold.

As I said with big antes and live nits I'm leaning shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it makes it right just because other pros do it, but I know multiple pros that play almost entirely live who push here. I only know one (and he's very good) pro who plays live that will routinely fold here. In *my* mind, that just goes to show that it *is* close and not an "obvious fold" or "obvious shove".

Re: 55 UTG
 

I actually raised 2.5xBB to 2K. How bad is that? Most of my previous early position raises had not been called.

Both blinds flat call. Both have me covered. The flop comes AAT with a 2-flush. SB checks, BB bets 1500.

BB seems like a typical somewhat straightforward live player. He had previously made a remark when there was a limp, a mid position raise, and I pushed with 66 and beat AK that that was a ballsy play with 66.

What do I do now?

Re: 55 UTG
 

Oh man, i was really curious what you had this hand...


i dont like the open at all, i think your 2.5x opening range there should be more like TT+, you're just stealing blinds really - and from UTG 10 handed.

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man, i was really curious what you had this hand...


i dont like the open at all, i think your 2.5x opening range there should be more like TT+, you're just stealing blinds really - and from UTG 10 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ray, being at that table, what would you have done? (shove/fold)

Re: 55 UTG
 

standard fold

Re: 55 UTG
 

M now = 11200/2200 = 5.1
M after blinds = 9700/2200 = 4.4

Your effective BB = 1467, you have 7.6 effective BB.

No reads, I shove 55 UTG here 100%.

Why are people folding ? I really don't get it.

Re: 55 UTG
 

you can see 1 more orbital. i hate shove though utg, and would rather raise like 8k and you might get A 10 to fold if your going o play it

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
standard fold

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your call range of an UTG shove from him here?

Re: 55 UTG
 

AK, TT+ ? maybe AQs?

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually raised 2.5xBB to 2K. How bad is that? Most of my previous early position raises had not been called.

Both blinds flat call. Both have me covered. The flop comes AAT with a 2-flush. SB checks, BB bets 1500.

BB seems like a typical somewhat straightforward live player. He had previously made a remark when there was a limp, a mid position raise, and I pushed with 66 and beat AK that that was a ballsy play with 66.

What do I do now?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold?

Re: 55 UTG
 

I would've looked at the first five dealt to me and folded without looking at the other. I can't believe some people are saying to play this hand. But I'm nit so flame away.

Re: 55 UTG
 

55 basically has the same value as 99 here, and every single one of you would shove 99 100%.

Re: 55 UTG
 

I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

Re: 55 UTG
 

I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.

The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh, should have explained in more detail.
You guys are saying how nitty everyone is live/at table.

I was just saying that you are giving everyone a calling range of 88 or 99+AQ+? until the blinds maybe a little more?

Just stating that 55 has pretty much same value as 99 because for the same assumptions that would make this a +EV shove (66,77,88 are folding) then the EV of shoving 99 is only slightly % points higher than shoving 55 and is basically irrelevant.

same obv goes for 22 obv

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think Stealthmunk is right. When you shove with 55 you'll only get looked up by 66, 77, and 88. When you shove with 99 they'll have tens every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh, should have explained in more detail.
You guys are saying how nitty everyone is live/at table.

I was just saying that you are giving everyone a calling range of 88 or 99+AQ+? until the blinds maybe a little more?

Just stating that 55 has pretty much same value as 99 because for the same assumptions that would make this a +EV shove (66,77,88 are folding) then the EV of shoving 99 is only slightly % points higher than shoving 55 and is basically irrelevant.

same obv goes for 22 obv

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why I asked Exit what his calling range is. If his range is TT+, AK then standard live player Nitty McFolderson is probably folding TT and AK LOL.

I also think raising and not shoving here is kinda bad because it creates the situation that you got into Betgo, live players [censored] love to call raises with marginal hands, and every single one of those hands has overs vs. you and you'll have no clue how to play post flop.

Re: 55 UTG
 

I would rely on my read/table image and relative chip stacks. Also, how deep are we, bubble approaching?

Rather than think about what we have, I think about what villian's calling range is and what they think we have.(do our cards really matter too much?!?) A thinking player will/should read a shove with our stack size as exactly what it is, most PP(admittedly 55 really pushes this) or Big Ace possibly something like KQ. If we wait for another orbit wouldn't a thinking player loosen up our shoving range to include any Ace and any two broadway??

The Ifs:
If our stack is more than 50% of everybody else's and,
If I'm not considered a maniac and
If there aren't any very loose gambler types willing call off with a wide range.

I shove this. We are getting short and need to accept more risk in order to chip up or we're gonna end up shoving weaker holdings with less FE or get blinded off waiting for a monster.

I've tried the 'look strong by just raising UTG because they know I should push/fold' tactic with very limited success. It seems that somebody always comes along and we're gonna hate almost every flop.

As stated before, this is very close and highly read/image dependent. I'm insta shoving 99+.

Re: 55 UTG
 

here are my reasons for folding
1) this is the same situation where the question is whether you would want AK UTG or 72 on btn.
2) Live players may be nitty, but this is a 10-person table and live players will sometimes call huge raises b/c they "just dont believe you"
3) This was stated later by betgo, but he shoved 66 in strange spot as well so he is more likely to get looked up by hands that beat or are in coinflip with 66 that they might not originally
4) Were any of the big stacks in the blinds? If so, I dont like the shove as much b/c they are more likely to call
5) Balto i understand where you are coming from, i mean how can someone call with a marginal hand when you are shoving from the 1-HOLE!!!!??? (Hellmuth reference intended). But you will get looked up by some strange [censored] in poker.
6) Arent there much higher +EV situations here other than a shove UTG? I mean the blinds wont cripple you enough that I think that you HAVE to shove here UTG.

Also, here is some food for thought:
Lets take 2 hypotheticals: 1) Tight-nitty table (2) loose table

1)
a) Your UTG steal(?) will work most of the time b/c they are so nitty they wont call. When you do get called you are usually waaay behind or at best a coinflip.
b) You are now co/hj/btn and folded around to you (more likely cuz they are nits). Your raise will take this down a very high majority of the time and the chances of the blinds calling your shove is a lot lower since its only 2 ppl instead of 9.
2)
a) You get looked up by any pp (most of which you are behind). You are getting looked up by KQ+ (maybe KJ) and are at best a coinflip in most scenarios. In this case its obviously -EV.
b) CO/HJ/Btn, you have to increase your ranges by a little, but you can still shove Ax and have a good chance to increase your stack v 2-3 ppl.

It just seems that in either a lively or nitty table, waiting till the blinds pass will allow you to increase your EV significantly

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.

The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.

[/ QUOTE ]


ok, so roughly, if everyone is calling TT+AK (i'm not saying this is true, but just as an example of a very tight table - then we'd be getting called 27.5% and winning blinds 72.5%. of the 27.5% we're called our equity is 31.3%.

Sooo 11.2k stack 2200 in the pot,

(.725 * 2200) + [.275*(24600*.313 - 11200)]
(1650) + [.275 * -3500]
1650 - 962.5
=
+687.5 chips/+.3M

I think thats the most optimistic we can be right?

I'm not positive that a fold is right - but it doesnt seem like a good spot to me - but i guess if it was guaranteed to be +.3M i'd shove, but i think its more of a best case scenario.

and edited on to compare, if calling ranges are changed to: AQ+,88+,

(.595 * 2200) + [.405*(24600*.342 - 11200)]
1309 - 1128= +180 chips, less than .1M

in this case i definitely think we should pass it up.

Re: 55 UTG
 

Even at the loosest table an UTG shove is not going to get looked up by *any* PP, unless it's a short stack. Even if they do, it's only around 30% that anyone has a PP better than 55.

When considering shove/fold, I think a lot of players place too much emphasis on position because they're worried about running into AK or a big PP. Position is important, but the likelihood of players having JJ+, AK is pretty low, less than 20% even for shoving into nine players.

Fold equity is what it's all about: they fear you have exactly what you have, a PP, against which any two unpaired cards is a dog and they will fold unless short. And if they have a PP, they typically have no clue regarding your PP range, and unless short most will over-fold, worried about being a 4.5:1 dog.

I don't worry so much about position here. My M is at the inflection point where where soon my stack utility will be taking really big hits and I will be hamstrung. My advantage is that I anticipate that reality ahead of my opponents and the poker gods have given me a PP at just the right moment. I must pursue my advantage.

Re: 55 UTG
 

betgo u sound like a 3 year old thats never played an mtt before. need chips to win then shove. why are you playing a pot from utg???????

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
betgo u sound like a 3 year old thats never played an mtt before. need chips to win then shove. why are you playing a pot from utg???????

[/ QUOTE ]

as bad as betgo is, you're 5 million times more terrible based on your first post in this thread.

i don't mean that to be demeaning, everyone has to start somewhere.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...mp;Board=tourn

this is probably a better place for you to start.

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
betgo u sound like a 3 year old thats never played an mtt before. need chips to win then shove. why are you playing a pot from utg???????

[/ QUOTE ]

as bad as betgo is, you're 5 million times more terrible based on your first post in this thread.

i don't mean that to be demeaning, everyone has to start somewhere.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...mp;Board=tourn

this is probably a better place for you to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

u still playing 50nl evg? your too funny. i played daily with betgo on stars. hu 4 rolz evg?

Re: 55 UTG
 

depends on table/avg stack/how near bubble or itm etc. obv but usully a fold in my book.

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
betgo u sound like a 3 year old thats never played an mtt before. need chips to win then shove. why are you playing a pot from utg???????

[/ QUOTE ]

as bad as betgo is, you're 5 million times more terrible based on your first post in this thread.

i don't mean that to be demeaning, everyone has to start somewhere.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...mp;Board=tourn

this is probably a better place for you to start.

[/ QUOTE ]

u still playing 50nl evg? your too funny. i played daily with betgo on stars. hu 4 rolz evg?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i haven't played 50nl since i first learned how to play 6-max.

and i don't really care if you play with betgo daily, everyone on this forum does.

if this is a dick-waving contest though, i'll bow out because i'm sure i'm no good compared to someone who knows "how many orbitals" betgo has left (???)

Re: 55 UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.

The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.

[/ QUOTE ]


ok, so roughly, if everyone is calling TT+AK (i'm not saying this is true, but just as an example of a very tight table - then we'd be getting called 27.5% and winning blinds 72.5%. of the 27.5% we're called our equity is 31.3%.

Sooo 11.2k stack 2200 in the pot,

(.725 * 2200) + [.275*(24600*.313 - 11200)]
(1650) + [.275 * -3500]
1650 - 962.5
=
+687.5 chips/+.3M

I think thats the most optimistic we can be right?

I'm not positive that a fold is right - but it doesnt seem like a good spot to me - but i guess if it was guaranteed to be +.3M i'd shove, but i think its more of a best case scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even in this most optimistic case the possibility of being called in more than one place is enough to make this a pretty clear fold.