27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Villain is pushing ATC for sure here & will be doing so the next hand because the table is wicked tight. He'll shove in every opportunity he can. Not going to have much opportunity for a +EV play the rest of the way. I haven't looked this up yet, but I assume it will be a bit -EV. We will pwn the bubble if we win this hand. Can we ever call and take a slightly -EV play here? I'm asking in application to a smaller -EV situation if this one isn't actually that close.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t1785)
SB (t5043)
Hero (t2892)
UTG (t3780)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t5018</font>, Hero ?

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Bubbling in this spot sucks, I think I just fold this away and let the SB shove shove and let blinds eat away the button, looking for one of my top hands. However if the shortstack were to double up we are in a world of hurt, and this may have been our best spot to double. Still in this type of situation i am folding to cash and hoping to be able to make some moves ITM.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Interesting post. I think what you are asking is whether it would ever be correct to make a -EV play for the current hand with the possibility of picking up greater EV on future hands. Maybe you could call this "Implied EV". Great question, and one I'll have to think about some...

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

This would be more interesting if button was deeper as is it's a pretty easy fold imo.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Clear call

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

plz explain how this is a clear call Shillx, not trying to call you out i would just like to hear your argument for the play.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
plz explain how this is a clear call Shillx, not trying to call you out i would just like to hear your argument for the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't run it but this has to be +EV or very close to it in a freezeout situation. Just from looking at it, it seems like a top 10% spot and A8s is the worst hand in the top 10% range. So I'm guessing it is like 0% +/- 0.1% and we figure to make a good amount down the line if we double up. I have no idea how low you can go here but something like A8o might be a fun decision.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

It's a clear call if you've never worked with ICM tools lol.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

If he's pushing ATC every hand the only opportunity you will get to open push is UTG. He's got no real incentive to call a push from shortie when he's pwning the bubble. If you double up here you will be pwning the bubble. Those three factors add some EV to a call that isn't captured by ICM and it's close anyway.

Call.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

OK, i cheated. Just plugging this into sngpt shows calling to be neg .2%, or 50 cents. You are going to donate 225 chips next hand so calling is not that bad. I guess in game I fold but after looking at I think you can go either way. The times you do win this you will be able to get a lot of extra EV than shown by sngpt becasue of the bigstack.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

unfortunately this is a fold. im a station so id prob. call in game knowing hes on ATC

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

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It's a clear call if you've never worked with ICM tools lol.

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That was a response to Shillx? LOL.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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Agreed!

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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Agreed!

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This is one of those hands where the future matters - ICM doesn't incorporate that. It's not clear either way, but it's definitely not a clear fold.

To answer this definitively you'd need to do a simulation - run the bubble a few thousand times with the big stack pushing every hand and doing his best to keep shortie alive with everyone else acting as ICM suggests.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

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Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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Agreed!

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This is one of those hands where the future matters - ICM doesn't incorporate that. It's not clear either way, but it's definitely not a clear fold.

To answer this definitively you'd need to do a simulation - run the bubble a few thousand times with the big stack pushing every hand and doing his best to keep shortie alive with everyone else acting as ICM suggests.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I think if you do this simulation calling would be better.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

TFG implies in the original post that he understands that ICM would say this is slightly -EV...clearly if thats all he wanted to know, he wouldn't bother posting this.

that said, the stacks are pretty perfect for making this call, given bubble implications.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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Agreed!

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This is one of those hands where the future matters - ICM doesn't incorporate that. It's not clear either way, but it's definitely not a clear fold.

To answer this definitively you'd need to do a simulation - run the bubble a few thousand times with the big stack pushing every hand and doing his best to keep shortie alive with everyone else acting as ICM suggests.

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Good point. I think if you do this simulation calling would be better.

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That's my instinct - it's definitely a better call than ICM would suggest, and there are three factors which contribute to that so the difference is probably quite substantial.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

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Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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lol patdown ill give you 2:1 on your bankroll that shillx would score higher than you an a bubble quiz. Let me know!

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lol whatever. Folding must be correct b/c SNGPT says so!

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lol patdown ill give you 2:1 on your bankroll that shillx would score higher than you an a bubble quiz. Let me know!

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll take some of that action. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

FWIW I like this call more and more because if we double we can pwn the bubble.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Until people start calling our ATC shoves with A8s

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

I'd call this for sure.

Ryan

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

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FWIW I like this call more and more because if we double we can pwn the bubble.

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That was the point of the OP(not that you didn't know that). We have 2 very tight + 1 thinking opponents so we will certainly pwn if we win this. I actually didn't realize it was so close when I came across this spot. Plus, we're almost always getting 3rd(if we don't bubble) if we play along with the shorty as he blinds away.

I think calling could be optimal but it probably depends on the 1st chance we will have a chance to shove profitably UTG(amongst other future actions &amp; actions by other players besides the big stack). I'm out for a bit, so I'll come up with the right ranges when I get back. In the mean time anyone can play around with it.
Stacks will look like this if Big stack steals this + the next 2 pots:

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing I find interesting here is that EV Fold in this spot (0.222) is slightly larger than our initial EV Fold (0.217).

And it has got to be +EV to push ATC from here. (assuming the bigstack will call tight to keep the bubble alive.)

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

I've played around a bit, but on most sensible ranges its +EV to shove 90%. I think the shorty could be calling a bit wider than I think though so we shouldn't be pushing ATC. I'm not sure exactly how wide the big is calling either. I doubt he is trying to conserve the bubble since he knows I am shoving very wide right here. I think about 60% is right. So we probably should be folding the initial spot and taking this one.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

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The thing I find interesting here is that EV Fold in this spot (0.222) is slightly larger than our initial EV Fold (0.217).

And it has got to be +EV to push ATC from here. (assuming the bigstack will call tight to keep the bubble alive.)

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At this point if the blinds increase to 300/600 the BB will look you up pretty light.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

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I've played around a bit, but on most sensible ranges its +EV to shove 90%. I think the shorty could be calling a bit wider than I think though so we shouldn't be pushing ATC. I'm not sure exactly how wide the big is calling either. I doubt he is trying to conserve the bubble since he knows I am shoving very wide right here. I think about 60% is right. So we probably should be folding the initial spot and taking this one.

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Sorry to repeat myself, but there are three non-ICM factors that favour a call:

1. He has an interest in preserving Shortie (within reason) because it keeps the medium stacks tight and handing over their blinds. He should also have a high aversion to doubling Shortie up because then all three opponents will have to open up a bit.

2. You are directly to the right of big stack, so you will likely only get to open push as UTG each orbit. Shortie can open push both his button and his small blind. We're not a favourite to win a last longer comp.

3. If we double up, we pwn the bubble.

I think you have to play this one forward a lot more than the first UTG hand you get.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Yeah, definitely a lot of reasons to call, hence the post in the first place but I wanted to take a closer look to see how much better it is than folding with respect to all future considerations. You can't just look at only the positive reasons for making the original call if you are going to look at the future.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

For those that call normally, what's your calling range?

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

I think about 60% is right.

What planet are you people living on? I would be shocked if I could push more then about 13% here.

If you run hot and are able to push at will then yeah fold the A8s. But when all your shoves get called and you have to find a hand, that A8s spot looks pretty good.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

lol, shillx. I was just playing around with SNGPT, do it yourself. That's just something in the middle because it's tough to gauge their ranges.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Oops, had it on 300/600 because it would of gone up.

I got 45% vs
SB &amp; BB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
BTN: TT+,AQs+,AKo

which could certainly be too tight, but wanted to point out the mistake.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, definitely a lot of reasons to call, hence the post in the first place but I wanted to take a closer look to see how much better it is than folding with respect to all future considerations. You can't just look at only the positive reasons for making the original call if you are going to look at the future.

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Well that's my point - you didn't look at all future considerations. You looked at whether you might be able to push UTG. Not the same thing.

If it's 50/50 to get an OK push my next UTG hand, I'm definitely calling here.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oops, had it on 300/600 because it would of gone up.

I got 45% vs
SB &amp; BB: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
BTN: TT+,AQs+,AKo

which could certainly be too tight, but wanted to point out the mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think those setting are a bit too tight. For the button you used preset "1" and very few call that tight when the BB hits 600 (unless there is a micro stack at table). It would also be nice for setting "3" if KQo were added because people love this hand and will call more than 44, 55, A7s, or KJs.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

OK, using your stacks from before:

Hero (t2142)
BTN (t3030)
SB (t1235)
BB (t7093)

I used the following call ranges:

button 66+,ATs+,AJo+
sb 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+
bb 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

And I get Push hands: 33+,A7o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+,QTs+,JTs (18.1%)

This looks pretty decent to me. Two other factors. You are in the bb next hand which would make you want to push a lot wider. The sb is short and will probably push a lot and the bb will have odds to call meaning you should tighten up. These two offset and I think that would be a pretty decent push range.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

to OP I think its a clear call

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

Those ranges are better, but they were being insanely tight so there's no way exactly of knowing perfect. Regardless, unless you could push very wide here it definitely makes sense to call in the original hand.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

i call for sure if he s on atc which he seems to be.
has anyone run those kind of simulations of bubble play if anyone plays according to icm? i would be very interested in the results.

Re: 27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?
 

A very interesting discussion.

According to SNG-W calling will be -0.94%, and it suggest call% range of 8.3 (66+,AJ+,ATs+,KQs)

As I see it, we need some pretty good reasoning for a -.94 call here.

You almost have to believe the other small stacks will play perfect bubble play for this to be a call, wouldn't you?

I mean, we give up on a lot of EV with a call. Add to that the EV we can get by letting the other stacks make mistakes.

I will fold this one on that premise alone. But the points are valid, and did I have a slightly better hand (and thus a smaller -EV situation), I would call to gain the pawnage you are talking about.

I just doesn't think the typical level of bubble play in the 27's justify us giving up that much EV.

EDIT: I mistakingly put in A8o... with A8s we get -0.22% and therefore a much better scenario. I could call here maybe... If I thought the opposition were as good as me, I would call for sure.