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-   -   Should I have folded AA here? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=548842)

rodders133 11-18-2007 07:17 AM

Should I have folded AA here?
 
Full ring 5/10c
Folds to me in mid position, I have AcAh and raise to 40c,
SB calls,
Flop is 5d Kh Kc,
SB checks,
I bet 40c,
SB calls,
Turn is Qs,
SB checks,
I check,
River is 9d,
SB goes all in $6.36
I have $7.50 and fold.

A friend was watching me and said I should have called, and have since been doubting my decision.

I realised I showed weakness on the turn when I checked behind him so I suppose a bluff from him could be possible?

insyder19 11-18-2007 07:25 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
fold

ChrisV 11-18-2007 08:06 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
Easy fold. Think about your opponent's thought process. He is not thinking here "Hey he checked the turn, but he probs has AA, I'll bet 18 million times the pot and make him fold it".

rodders133 11-18-2007 08:45 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. Think about your opponent's thought process. He is not thinking here "Hey he checked the turn, but he probs has AA, I'll bet 18 million times the pot and make him fold it".

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive my ignorance but I dont understand your reply. Are you saying I should have called or folded?

PJS 11-18-2007 08:55 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy Fold . Think about your opponent's thought process. He is not thinking here "Hey he checked the turn, but he probs has AA, I'll bet 18 million times the pot and make him fold it".

[/ QUOTE ]

Forgive my ignorance but I dont understand your reply. Are you saying I should have called or folded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Rodders,

I've just highlighted his recommendation.

PJS

Gonso 11-18-2007 09:04 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
It's a very easy fold, there's nothing you can really beat here except maybe AQ and a bluff. He wasn't drawing to straight or flush on that flop, as played it looks like you are up against a king at the least, more likely a boat.

PokerKhan 11-18-2007 09:27 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
I disagree with the other posters. His most likely hand is a pocket pair below the kings - probably a mid pair like 77. If he had the King or a FH, why would he go all in after you showed weakness? Why not make a value bet that you could call? He is trying to scare you off the pot. Easy call.

rodders133 11-18-2007 09:35 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with the other posters. His most likely hand is a pocket pair below the kings - probably a mid pair like 77. If he had the King or a FH, why would he go all in after you showed weakness? Why not make a value bet that you could call? He is trying to scare you off the pot. Easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

My only assumption was that if I had a K and he had a boat like someone else mentioned, he thought he would get a call

Viper278 11-18-2007 11:08 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
I have a tendency to think since he waited for the river to go AI. I narrow it to 3 hands, 3 kings, full house, or a straight with J 10 connector. It's not unreasonable to think he made a straight in this situation. I would have folded here as well.
The only reason I feel that he went all in. He was hoping you had 2 pair or 3 of a kind and you would call. Other wise he is not getting all the money out of his hand. Now, my thought process could be all wrong, just my opinion.

raze 11-18-2007 03:47 PM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
It seems very sloppy to be a bluff; I think he's going for big value here with a strong hand a lot of the time, so without any reads I like a fold.

More importantly IMO, you unfortunately have very little information to go on here, and it's a tough and fairly rare spot, so I would suggest it's not a very big mistake to call or fold here and for you not to worry about it too much.

Lansingg 11-18-2007 05:55 PM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
Probably a good fold

ChrisV 11-18-2007 11:55 PM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with the other posters. His most likely hand is a pocket pair below the kings - probably a mid pair like 77. If he had the King or a FH, why would he go all in after you showed weakness? Why not make a value bet that you could call? He is trying to scare you off the pot. Easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You realise he's going allin for nearly 4 times the pot right? People don't move in for 4 times the pot on bluffs when they might be winning the pot anyway.

The key to this hand is to look at the difference between hands that fold to a pot size bet and hands that fold to the massive overbet. The only hands that will call a pot size bet and fold to a larger bet are AA, AQ and maybe QJ. With such a small number of hands folding to the larger bet, it doesn't make sense for him to risk so much to run his bluff. It does however make sense for him to make the huge bet with a crushing hand; you only need to have a hand that can call the massive bet (say JT or 99) a few times to make up for the value you lose by folding out AA and AQ. Plus he probably doesn't put you on AA or AQ since at this level a lot of people will wrongly bet the turn with those hands.

GeeBeeQED 11-19-2007 12:16 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
You could all be correct about this villian thinking the hand through and playing reasonably. I think the first thing to be considered (and nobody's mentioned) is how small this game is. This villian could have ATC here. How much credit can you give a player in this kind of game?

I still like the fold and the balance of the advice. I'd have liked a bigger bet post flop than 40 cents. That to me sounds like it's in the spirit of a slow play or a weak fearful value bet. I'd suggest betting the pot here. A call from this level player could still mean anything but I'd sure feel much better about laying the hand down later as it played out if our villian had called a reasonable bet. The .40 was wasted as it doesn't tell you anything, a good player would call this with probably any pair thinking you might have raised with AJ/AQ preflop and was putting out a cont bet. But, how many penny players understand what a C bet is? I'm I being foolish for even mentioning it?

Checking the flop would have been interesting too. This level player can not resist checking a flopped set like this. Can you give the player a set because he checked? NO, it's the weaker play to check here. I like betting much better. But, be careful how much you try to read into a penny player. I say you are wrong less on average if you assume here the player is not thinking much at all, just playing "his" hand as he sees it.

Dave

thrasher789 11-19-2007 12:17 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
Players at .5/.10 tend to be so horrible I have no idea if it was a good fold or not. For some reason I'm leaning towards calling here thought just becuase if he wanted to get called for value I don't think he would of pushed UNLESS he thought you might percieve it as a bluff and call. Hard situation without knowing the villains tendencies.

ChrisV 11-19-2007 02:19 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
if you're up against the sort of player who will jam in 4 times the pot on a bluff, you ought to have some kind of read on him. readless there's just no way this is a bluff.

runout_mick 11-19-2007 02:40 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hard situation without knowing the villains tendencies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why our default should be to fold until we know more about him.

I also agree with raze that this situation comes up so infrequently that a call isn't too bad either, especially if we're planning on putting in a decent length session and will likely be able to use the info we get here later.

thizzlethizz 11-19-2007 03:34 AM

Re: Should I have folded AA here?
 
www.itsatrap.net ! easy fold. don't go broke with 1 pair in small pots. tell your friend he's dumb for making a smarter person like you doubt the decision to fold that hand. you're risking like $5 to win $6 and you're not sure if you're good or not? when in doubt fold, even easier when it's a tiny tiny pot.

edit: oh yeah at .05/.10 I've seen some silly stupid [censored]. So I wouldn't put any pocket pair out of his range either but this pot isn't big enough to account that anyway.


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