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Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
I'm pretty pumped about this week. Some guesses...
LSU -9.5 @ Bama Wisconsin @ Ohio St -13 Vandy @ Florida -14 Navy @ ND PK Arizona St @ Oregon -3.5 S Carolina @ Arkansas -4 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Kentucky v. Idle -6, O/U 58
If Kentucky doesn't move the ball, turns the ball over 6 times, doesn't play defense, gets punts blocked, and fumbles kickoffs, they could very well get knocked off by a resurgent Idle squad. Projections on the rest of the games to come later this afternoon. My brain hurts just thinking about trying to cap Navy/ND... |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Kentucky v. Idle -6, O/U 58 If Kentucky doesn't move the ball, turns the ball over 6 times, doesn't play defense, gets punts blocked, and fumbles kickoffs, they could very well get knocked off by a resurgent Idle squad. Projections on the rest of the games to come later this afternoon. My brain hurts just thinking about trying to cap Navy/ND... [/ QUOTE ] lol...we've all been there |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
exactly what time do lines typically come out at bookmaker? I know it is today...
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Between 3:30-4 PST
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech PK
Wisconsin @ Ohio State -17 Wake Forest @ Virginia PK Iowa -3.5 @ Northwestern Nebraska at Kansas -18.5 South Carolina @ Arkansas -2 Navy @ Notre Dame PK Cincinnati @ South Florida -6 Texas @ Oklahoma State PK Michigan -3.5 @ Michigan State |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
LSU -7 @ Alabama
Missouri -6 @ Colorado Arizona State @ Oregon -6 Rutgers @ UConn PK Florida State @ Boston College -7.5 Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -20 Oregon State @ USC -9 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -2.5
LSU -5 @ Alabama Navy @ Notre Dame -3 Arizona State @ Oregon -4 South Carolina @ Arkansas -4 Wisconsin @ Ohio State -14 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Lines are out:
VT +1.5 Indiana -6.5 Vandy +16.5 South Carolina +6 Stanford +3 Cal -13.5 Troy +15.5 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Rutgers +3
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Oregon St +13.5 (missed 14)
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
USCe +6
Oregon State +14.5 Navy +3.5 Oklahoma State +3 Rutgers +3 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Don't see much that looks good in the openers this week. I'd lean toward Georgia Tech at -1.5 and Alabama at +7, but nothing looks too far off. If Sewell's going to play, I'd like Virginia at +2.5 too, but I'm not sure if his injury was serious or not.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
I'm glad I'm on 3 you posted [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Wish I had the guts to trust my instincts and really pound USCe and Oregon State but oh well...got 3 and 2 units down respectively before the move.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
ULM +4.5
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
AzzuSt +7, 1u
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
I have problems trusting my instincts as well.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Jumping on these now...
ASU +7 Navy +3.5 Holding off on the rest. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
NC State +13
Alabama +7 Oklahoma St +3 Iowa St +14.5 Done now. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
with NCSU coming off a big win and Miami having the bye, I don't think the +13 is as good as it looks. Miami is probably 2 TDs better at home if Wright is healthy.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Didn't Navy give up 59 to Delaware, at home? How the hell are you all forecasting 'pick' at ND?
You remember the public is betting these games as well, no? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Oregon State is back to 14.5 if you guys want it. I'm not sure about it...
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Oregon State back to 14.5 - adding.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Didn't Navy give up 59 to Delaware, at home? How the hell are you all forecasting 'pick' at ND? You remember the public is betting these games as well, no? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] All I'm going to say is - we will find out if it is in any way possible for Notre Dame's offense to move the ball. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] P.S. Delaware might be better than ND. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Oregon State is back to 14.5 if you guys want it. I'm not sure about it... [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I'll bite OSU +14.5 |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Adding on Oklahoma State, now at 3.5.
Edit: And I am all-in at +4. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Does anyone like UL-Lafayette +31ish against Tennessee? I am leaning that way.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Didn't Navy give up 59 to Delaware, at home? How the hell are you all forecasting 'pick' at ND? You remember the public is betting these games as well, no? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] All I'm going to say is - we will find out if it is in any way possible for Notre Dame's offense to move the ball. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] P.S. Delaware might be better than ND. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I thought this was the 'forecast the lines' thread, not the team X is better than Team Y thread! ND beat UCLA, Navy gave up 59 to Delaware at home, of course ND will be favored by 3+ at home, this is a public market we're talking about... |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Didn't Navy give up 59 to Delaware, at home? How the hell are you all forecasting 'pick' at ND? You remember the public is betting these games as well, no? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] All I'm going to say is - we will find out if it is in any way possible for Notre Dame's offense to move the ball. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] P.S. Delaware might be better than ND. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I thought this was the 'forecast the lines' thread, not the team X is better than Team Y thread! ND beat UCLA, Navy gave up 59 to Delaware at home, of course ND will be favored by 3+ at home, this is a public market we're talking about... [/ QUOTE ] I guess I'm just not very good at thinking like Joe Public. Notre Dame is 1-7, none of the losses have been the least bit competitive, and they have been on nat'l tv constantly - how they can be that public is beyond me, although I guess I just don't know enough irrational ND fans. Same thing with USC - they haven't done anything lately (except against aforementioned awful ND) and they're still getting respect like the Leinart/Bush teams of old. I also figured plenty of Joe Publics might not even be aware that Navy played yesterday. FWIW I usually project my own "correct" line in these threads, without taking much into consideration what the actual opener will be, although I figure they should typically be pretty close (and they usually are). I do not waste any time trying to understand the thought processes of people who love betting on 1-7 teams that can't move the ball against anyone. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Bills217,
a big factor in ND/Navy is ND has had an extra week to prepare for the Navy rush attack. It's a dream schedule to have 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's scheme. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Bills217, a big factor in ND/Navy is ND has had an extra week to prepare for the Navy rush attack. It's a dream schedule to have 2 weeks to prepare for Navy's scheme. [/ QUOTE ] Valid point. Don't get me wrong, Navy is pretty awful too, I only have a unit on them - I'm just saying it boggles my mind that public bettors presumably still favor ND in light of the unmitigated disaster they have been. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Navy gave up 8ypp to the Blue Hens! ND doesn't have to be LSU to move the ball on them, and they had the bye week.
Anyone who thinks Navy should be a pick should be unloading a huge part of their BR on Navy ML this game then. Full Kelly would be 20%, half 10% of BR [using common ML estimates]. That's a massive advantage you can't pass up if you evaluate Navy as Even here. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Navy gave up 8ypp to the Blue Hens! ND doesn't have to be LSU to move the ball on them, and they had the bye week. Anyone who thinks Navy should be a pick should be unloading a huge part of their BR on Navy ML this game then. Full Kelly would be 20%, half 10% of BR [using common ML estimates]. That's a massive advantage you can't pass up if you evaluate Navy as Even here. [/ QUOTE ] I would probably be doing that if I was really that confident in my projections - they are educated guesses at best, especially when it comes to teams like Navy and ND that I am not super-familiar with. Edit: Indeed Sagarin has Delaware above ND, and Navy ~3.5 points better than ND in the predictor. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
If you 'discount' your projections by 75%, and use quarter-Kelly, you still get 5% of BR on Navy ML. Either you bet that or revise your projections, anything else is -EV.
You may be 100% right in your analysis, so don't throw money away. [I think ~3 is about right so I'll just avoid entirely.] |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
POTW: Rutgers +2.5 @ Uconn bet 2.2u to win 2u
waiting to either add another unit on Rutgers (hoping to get 3) or to bet the moneyline |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
POTW: Rutgers +2.5 @ Uconn bet 2.2u to win 2u waiting to either add another unit on Rutgers (hoping to get 3) or to bet the moneyline [/ QUOTE ] I'm hoping to get 3 after all the NYCers jump on UConn [huge win over former #2 USF] and they all saw Rutgers get shellacked by WVa. |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Naj- Sagarin has Navy as 1 pt fav after HFA. You'd have to look hard to find a computer that would rank ND even with Navy. Predicting it as PK is not crazy.
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Adding on Oklahoma State, now at 3.5. Edit: And I am all-in at +4. [/ QUOTE ] And now back at 3, whaddya know - thanks for the swing! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Naj- Sagarin has Navy as 1 pt fav after HFA. You'd have to look hard to find a computer that would rank ND even with Navy. Predicting it as PK is not crazy. [/ QUOTE ] This thread is making me want to put my entire net worth on Navy to show Naj how ballsy I am. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
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