=== OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Rules: absolutely anything goes in here, no matter how off topic, as long as it doesn't violate the site's terms and conditions or the general tone of this forum (i.e. still be respectful to each other). But you can talk about any subject you want in here... . Discuss anything you want!


Previous chatter thread (active 8/21 - 10/31/07)
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=11761433

-P

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

why do so many posters in this forum feel the need to sign their posts?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Dunno. I've always done it since I first came here (even under my original name)

-P

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

ballingness


-Un-banned

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

you were banned?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

mogwai wrote:
[ QUOTE ]

Hmm, quick math shows that this is actually really bad. If the pleaser pays 6:1, then you need both games to win with prob. > ~38%. Even in the best case, with both games going from +7.5 to +13.5, each games winning prob. goes from 50% to about 29%. Somebody can double-check me on this, but it looks like these bets are even more -EV than I thought.
For 3 teams at 17:1 it works out about the same. You still need each team to have a winning % > 38%, which just isn't going to be possible in the NFL.

It might be worth looking into the numbers for college, where you have more large spreads and the push frequencies for the key numbers are lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummmmm... do you or anyone know anywhere that does NCAAF pleasers?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Al Gore to announce he is running by November 1st. No -600. $300 to win $50

[/ QUOTE ]
Ship it. Still gotta love bodog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice. Any reason on earth that Gore is being given about a 10% chance to actually win the Democratic nomination on Matchbook? You can bet on him not to win the nomination at -1100.

It would seem that his chances to win should be much, much smaller than that. His chances to even run for President seem like they should be smaller than that. What am I missing?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]

ummmmm... do you or anyone know anywhere that does NCAAF pleasers?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I just started running the numbers for these and there are some spreads that could be *very* profitable for NCAAF. Unfortunately, it looks like the books don't do them. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If anyone knows of a book that does, please post and let us know.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Bet Jamaica has them:

Pleasers (NFL / NCAAF)*NEW*

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Gonna start dicking around w/ sportsbetting. Does anyone have an excel template/spreadhseet that they use for football/basketball? Would be great. Did a little search but 2p2 search sucks and i'm not that good at it anyhow.

PM me or just respond here if you do.

-John (since everyone signs their posts here)

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

let someone else track them for you, for free

sagestats dot com

disclaimer: I'm unaffiliated with that site just think it is good. delete if TOS violation. that is all.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet Jamaica has them:

Pleasers (NFL / NCAAF)*NEW*

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah they've got them but two things:
1-keep an eye on the spreads. I saw two +5.5 games(SCar & Memphis)with pleaser odds of -.5. Those were the only two I saw that were off though.
2-they are only paying 5-1 on them. It should be 6.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gonna start dicking around w/ sportsbetting. Does anyone have an excel template/spreadhseet that they use for football/basketball? Would be great. Did a little search but 2p2 search sucks and i'm not that good at it anyhow.

PM me or just respond here if you do.

-John (since everyone signs their posts here)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there was one in the FAQ last time I looked. I haven't used it personally, but it probably does what you're looking for.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet Jamaica has them:

Pleasers (NFL / NCAAF)*NEW*

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah they've got them but two things:
1-keep an eye on the spreads. I saw two +5.5 games(SCar & Memphis)with pleaser odds of -.5. Those were the only two I saw that were off though.
2-they are only paying 5-1 on them. It should be 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting.. yeah the 5:1 is gonna make things difficult. We need 40.9% winners to break even. The 3-teamers at 13:1 need 41.5%. I'll have to look at the data some more tonight, I think there were some small ranges that had a higher % than that, but I don't know whether they were significant.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Anybody feel like running a handicapping tourney ala Fezzik's?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

check the 3+1 threads on here

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

good call B00T, is it an ongoing thing?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet Jamaica has them:

Pleasers (NFL / NCAAF)*NEW*

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah they've got them but two things:
1-keep an eye on the spreads. I saw two +5.5 games(SCar & Memphis)with pleaser odds of -.5. Those were the only two I saw that were off though.
2-they are only paying 5-1 on them. It should be 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting.. yeah the 5:1 is gonna make things difficult. We need 40.9% winners to break even. The 3-teamers at 13:1 need 41.5%. I'll have to look at the data some more tonight, I think there were some small ranges that had a higher % than that, but I don't know whether they were significant.

[/ QUOTE ]

there are a few spreads where the 6 pt pleaser has run good enough to win at 5 to 1. However, these are all instances where the spread itself has been significantly off from 50/50. IE, if one thinks there is something to that historical data, just bet those spreads as the edge is larger.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

wsex.com has cfb pleasers

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
wsex.com has cfb pleasers

[/ QUOTE ]

Do they pay 6:1 or 5:1?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

anyone able to transfer to a sportsbook? all my loot is tied up in a cashout. have $500 on stars. well its a little late anyways. will send first PM.

Go bears, yeeeeeeeeeeeees they can't win they can't lose BYE weeks kick ass

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Anyone who is going to be in AC this weekend and wants to trade real monies for online monies... please contact me!!!

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

my book does ncaaf pleasers!!

too bad i think its ridiculously -EV

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

ummmm....just want to say I bet on SEA and that reverse on the spot in OT was perfect

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

WSEX Pleasers are 6:1. Hit a 3 team pleaser (<3 to Houston, Dallas and GB) to salvage my weekend. GO VARIANCE!

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

I'm a square.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Bodog Western Michigan +3 +105
Matchbook Central Michigan -3 +100 (-102 after commission)

EDIT:Got better as there is about 4k at matchbook behind Central Michigan -3 +102

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Anyone got a play for the Contender finale fight tonight? I like Codrington but couldn't get as good of a line as I was hoping for. 1 unit at -185.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got a play for the Contender finale fight tonight? I like Codrington but couldn't get as good of a line as I was hoping for. 1 unit at -185.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell of a first round, both guys knocked down within the first 1:30. This one's definitely worth watching.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

There is a really tiny arb available for Dancing with teh Stars betting:

Males wins Bodog +145
Melanie wins Matchbook +350
Maria wins Bodog +500
Jennie wins Bodog +550

The corresponding probabilities add up to less than 1 meaning it is arbable, but I am not sure how to calculate the correct proportion to bet on each. And since the bodog bets are capped at 50$ I bet it is worth less than a dollar. But generally does anyone have a link to an arb calculator for more than two bets?

I think the value here is +145 male wins at bodog. There are three woman and two men left. Matchbook likes the men as teh two favorites and strangly bodog offers +100 on one of the men to win it.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Sexy pleaser bet:

Risking:$20.00To Win:$6000.00
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 10:00 AM
[207] JACKSONVILLE-1½-110
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 10:00 AM
[209] DENVER-2½-110
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 10:00 AM
[213] CLEVELAND+3½-110
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 10:00 AM
[217] ATLANTA-2-110
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 1:05 PM
[223] CINCINNATI-2-110
(NFL)11/11/07 @ 1:15 PM
[229] DETROIT-4½-110

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Centris,

This will work

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Thanks Hedgie,

Now that I think about it the algebra to get it is easy if tedious. Four unknowns four linear equations not too tough. The arb is worth 6 dollars and you tie up 116 for the next month or so while the show is on. If anyone cares it is Male 50$, Mel 27.22$ (matchbook), Maria $20.42 and Jennie $18.85.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Just getting into sports betting. Anyone tried out WSEX's "sidelines" software tool that has the lines running on your desktop? If not do you use any similar program that makes monitoring lines a bit easier?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just getting into sports betting. Anyone tried out WSEX's "sidelines" software tool that has the lines running on your desktop? If not do you use any similar program that makes monitoring lines a bit easier?

[/ QUOTE ]

its easy to write a program in excel to get the lines from sbrlines or other places as soon as they update

i wrote one in about 4 hours to do that with minimal programming skills to compare the lines looking for arbs

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

NFL knockout pool: I've used PIT, CHI, BAL, DAL, NE, SD, WAS, NYG, NO. What looks good for Week 10? Thanks for any advice, I'm probably leaning towards SEA over DET or GB but would love to read discussion.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

SEA is playing SF. Take them.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Do Sportsbooks care if you have an arb or middle both sides with the same book?

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do Sportsbooks care if you have an arb or middle both sides with the same book?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is unfortunately "it depends".

If you're using Pinnacle, the answer is no.

Re: === OFFICIAL November -- December 2007 CHATTER THREAD ===
 

Going to AC tomorrow. Contact me or naj if you want to buy us booze.