5/10 turn shove?
 

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO ($1014.00)
Hero ($918.75)
SB ($1148.00)
BB ($1355.25)
UTG ($1267.33)
MP ($1102.00)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $130</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $95.

Flop: ($275) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $215</font>, CO calls $215.

Turn: ($705) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, Hero? $574 left

Final Pot: $1852.50


villain is 18/14/3, pretty good i guess, cant remember much specific history with him
no timing tells
how oftne if ever should i be shoving turn?

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

i shove here every time.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

Shooooove it

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

How aggro preflop is hero?

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

19/17 or so i guess he will have me at, this is at start of a session though

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

I don't think its as easy as a shove as a couple people have said. Esp. on prima, yall get looked up with any king and maybe even QQ or JJ. I think you should have some type of read on this player to shove here, otherwise, it seems kinda wreckless. I def. think there are times to shove the turn, but i think you should have some type of read for doing it.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

What are we folding out if we shove other then naked heart draws? Kx is calling here for sure, and as stated above it wouldn't surprise me if JJ/QQ called it off.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

with image i shove too, i dont see many kx's getting this far from a 18/14, i feel like he folds kj-kt pf and a good amount of the time kq as well

i mean if he has qq and jj here and calls then so be it, but if you do the math im pretty sure it'll be +ev...coordinate his pf range(ak(4bets?) aq,33-tt,does he 4bet jj/qq always?) w/his calling range on the flop(88-qq,ak) and i think the shove is good, plus it balances out when we do have ak and want a call. Also, since i think he'll 4bet ak alot preflop your ace outs should be good and if he has a small pair your q outs are good too so you wont be drawing dead if he makes a hero call

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

I should also mention that by "image" i mean the fact that you're 19/17 and you have virtually no history of 3betting him light bc its the beginning of the session, which means if hes competent he can have your pf range at {aqs, ak, aa,kk-99}...but that may be giving you a bit too much credit bc you're on the button, so he can talk himself into a wider range that includes (aqs,ak,aa,kk-99,89s+,"air") and your turn shove range at {aqh, ak, aa, kk,air}

i just think given your range it makes it hard for him to call with all but the best of his range

am i off here or do others agree..

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

been a couple hours, wondering if anyone has any comments on my hand ranges here and i feel like this is a fairly common situation that i'd like a decent answer to

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

I like a shove here, he'd get it in pref w/ AK so u only have to worry about KQ basically.

Shove like 80% here vs this villain, depening on ur table image

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like a shove here, he'd get it in pref w/ AK so u only have to worry about KQ basically.

Shove like 80% here vs this villain, depening on ur table image

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus KK,AA to worry about. Meh, I usually give up here tbh after getting such a big flop bet called by someone like that. If there was a bit more history it could change the turn betting frequency, but I'd be more like check 80% than shove 80%. Maybe that's ultra lame, don't know.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

yeah very true cop. this is very player dependant and I think this kind of opponent (assuming u have a good amount of hands on him) often slowplays his AA/KK and also calls his TT-QQ. He'll probably call a 3bet w/ TT+ here, maybe, but probably not KQ? So we worry about 2 hands, AA and KK and gets TT-QQ to fold out, which all certainly may peel the flop. (he gotta fold right?). So 3 of 5 hands will fold, so it seems like a good bet.

Furthermore I like a 3bet to 120(pot) more than 130 for a variety of reasons.

1. he more often 4-bets his AA/KK when u 3bet smaller
2. your squeezes get cheaper
3. he calls with a wider range, which puts u in a better spot since u have a strong hand and posistion

thoughts!?

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

If villain would have been a straightforward TAG this is a insta bet, isn't it?

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

i thought so too

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

This play is pretty borderline I'd say, but good for metagame. Running the math:

Pot Size = 705
Left to Shove = 574
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls = 920*2 = 1840

Equity when called:

Hand 0: 05.742% { AdQc }
Hand 1: 94.258% { AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, AKs, KJs+, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs }

The range is sort of weighted to reflect that he 4bets AA/KK some of the time PF, only calls QQ/JJ 50% of the time, only AKs included since he 4bets AK so often PF, and folds KQo PF half the time. This doesn't matter so much for our equity, which will always be around 5.7%, but rather for what percentage of his range is calling the turn shove.

Let X = P(Fold)
Shove EV(0) = 705X + (1-X)(1840*0.057-574)
X = 40%

His calling range represents 2.1% of total combos. That means he needs to make it to the turn with:
2.1%/(1 - 40%) = 3.5% of hands. So if he's peeling 99-QQ (folding QQ/JJ half the time) as well as the rare flush draw, this brings his range to 3.6% and makes the shove barely profitable on its own merits.

It definitely is very close, but we need to bluff in this spot some % of the time to balance out our strong hands, so I like shoving this a significant portion of the time.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

I've not followed this through - though nice work on putting some numbers on this - but what do you mean about being roughly break-even? I mean, if hero checks he still has some value in the hand. Not a huge amount, granted, but def some.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

Yeah, that's math for the value of a shove only. If he checks behind, he has say around 8-10% equity in a 705 pot for something like EV=60-70, but then calculating the EV of all the rivers with the potential reverse implied odds/ability to valuebet aces and get paid off etc. makes it too hard to tackle.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i take out kjs here as well as kqo from his range, and i also add a a small weight of Sc's 15% of the time (like 89s+) bc theres no way any competent player ONLY calls 3bets with such a tight range

[/ QUOTE ]

A guy played 18/14 might very well do just that. play say 99+, KQs+ imo

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

shrug, i guess i just give ppl some credit for balancing their ranges more than that

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

there's also equity from checking behind and spiking an A/Q and winning the pot. i think shoving here is pretty close but it's probably best.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

Yes, villain's range is wider when calling preflop. But the range in stove are the hands he calls the flop with AND calls the turn with. Sure, he may be calling 89s PF, but he's not peeling that flop, and if he does have a flush draw he's not calling your shove with it now.

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

who is villain?

Re: 5/10 turn shove?
 

I put him on AK. Save the 5 hundo and move onto the next hand. KQ is also a possibility. Anyways he called the $215 and it looks to me like he's gone into check call mode.