Downswings.
 

(I apologise if this is the wrong forum, seemed the most appropriate)

There was a time, where I, like the majority of people frowned upon the idea that you could run bad for extended periods time, ranging weeks and months. Like others I assocciated that with, indeed, having bad luck, but more importantly playing sub par as a consequence.

That was 3 months ago. While I still hold this belief to be true, I changed my view on the length of runs that are based almost purely on bad luck. As it's easy to guess now I've been losing for 3 months. It's been around 85k hands, I'm down over 35 buy-ins (hard to say exactly, as it was different limits). I always try to be honest with myself so I naturally started reviewing my hands in PT. Unfortunately despite my efforts I couldn't find any visible spews. Naturally I make some mistakes, but nothing that would be clearly recurrent. I practise game selection, I consider myself a favourite in the games I play, I would be absolutely shocked if it was otherwise.

The reasons this is irritating is that I haven't heard of any good player having nearly 100k downswings stretches unless he was tilting, playing in bad games. Which would mean that I'm fooling myself by saying that I have been playing good, when in fact I am playing bad. This is the most logical assumption to make. However whenever I play a session nowadays and see the stuff that goes around and review it later on I just feel that I would be kidding myself if I told myself this is my fault.

And whenever you tell complain to somebody about this you can't really expect much. So you're sort of stuck alone with your problem, not really sure if you're doing something wrong or if what's going on is normal. That's poker I guess? I guess it would be a lot easier to cope with if there were some high stakes players that would tell you this is possible.

I just had a 2 week break, came back fresh, but 3 days later it just seems I'm getting spit on by the deck. Yesterday I said "[censored] it" and made the resolution to be playing the absolute best, more motivated and focused than ever, no longer than 2 hours per session. I will try to keep this up for as long as I can.

So are 100k hand downswings possible? Has anyone had something like that and honestly believes it was mostly bad luck?

Re: Downswings.
 

I think i had a very lond DS from January to March. But obviously i wasn`t playing my best game. I wasn`t spewing, but i sometimes read the action wrong and chasing draws too thin.
Perhaps i am just running hot for my past 100k hands, but i think my edge was still huge in this times.

Re: Downswings.
 

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The reasons this is irritating is that I haven't heard of any good player having nearly 100k downswings stretches unless he was tilting, playing in bad games.

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IIRC cts had a 100k BE stretch, dunno if he was tilting or whatever.

Re: Downswings.
 

Downswings happen. 100k BE stretch happens. And obviously, there has to be some tilt in there. But you just gotta keep your head up and believe that the better days are ahead.

It's important to be smart about your bankroll during the downtime because once you're out of moneys, you can't make moneys [unless you get in no-risk staking deals obv].

Re: Downswings.
 

everytime i go on a biggish downswing it is no doubt caused from tilt/bad play

therefore i believe these huge downswings are NOT inevitable like most believe. the problem is that its so difficult to reverse course during it

Re: Downswings.
 

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therefore i believe these huge downswings are NOT inevitable like most believe. the problem is that its so difficult to reverse course during it

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I think the problem is most people haven't had downswings like that. A lot of players on the top haven't even played a million hands (not to mention live players who play 10x less), it's hard to imagine that some of them should have a 100k hand downswing. Which makes me think there is long-term luck that could determine that one guy plays nosebleed stakes, the other grinds on 5/10.

Like for example, when I read the well with sbrugby I was under the impression he didn't realise how fortunate he was to be able to move up the ladder so fast without much difficulties. I'm sure the fact he got there is no fluke, since he's approach to the game is phenomenal, but how fast he did it had a lot to do w/ variance and I know he frowned upon that idea/got pissed when people told him that. While I have an immense respect for him as a player (moreso than for any other) I think he never faced a huge downswing and his views on variance were a bit skewed. Until now I guess. Must suck to have your first one in the millions.

I have a friend who was a well respected 10/20 25/50 winner with excellent tilt control. He has been losing for over a year now despite moving all the way down to 3/6. He claims that it's possible the run worse than 99,9% think possible. I think it's possible in a sense that if we're talking about a 100k sample, people haven't played really that much more overall (I'd assume less than 1 out of 10 have played over a million on this HSNL forum), so long-term variance might differ from player to player.

I hope this doesn't sound like a "I run worse than anyone" story, because I don't want it to be that way. I'm very much open to different opinions (especially from the best players this forum has to offer) and appreciate your posts.

Re: Downswings.
 

I had a 125K break-even stretch a couple years back (over the course of 3 months) and, at the time, I was one of the bigger LHE winners around. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that I don't know a single great player who hasn't experienced a breakeven stretch longer than he would have thought possible (before it happened to him, that is). Since I've switched to mostly NL, I also had a 70K breakeven stretch earlier this year. I disagree with greg above -- i DO think that such things are inevitable, even for the best players. That being said, downswings/breakeven stretches have a tendency to make people deviate from their A-games, and I think that *some* of the mediocrity is no doubt attributable to poor play / tilt, but it's not like it can account for the whole thing.

Think of it this way, had I continued to play my absolute best / not succumbed to any tilt whatsoever, it's possible that my 525 BB downswing in LHE, or the 15-BI bath I took playing NL might have been "only" 475 BB / 13-BI respectively. But the point is that they still would have been huge, ugly downswings. So don't beat yourself up over it (although by anyone's standards, 35 BIs is quite large and I'd look for some leaks in your game). Sounds like you're just running terrible (as long as you were satisfied that u were a winning player before, which u don't really make clear in your post).

Re: Downswings.
 

I just wanted to add that I had an 84 buy in up swing in May and won everyday except for one. In June I lost the first 9 days in a row and got absolutely crushed. I was down almost 45 buy ins in 50k hands. I think these swings will happen to everyone if they play Millions and millions of hands over their lifetime.

Re: Downswings.
 

My opinion is that -30BI or so over 100K is possible for even an excellent player. I don't really have the math to back it up; it's just based on having been around the game for a number of years and seeing virtually all good (and great) players I know, including myself, go through something in this realm.

What I can say with confidence is that most people lie about their results. It seems that in this internet poker era, people are slightly more honest about their own results, for 2 main reasons: 1)More level-headed, scientific-type players are now playing the game at a high level, and these types are a little more likely to be honest than the old, road gambler types IMO (due to a little less ego-related attachment to results on the part of the new school). 2)Datamining, online forums, etc. make it easier than ever before for others to keep tabs on how you are doing, so high-profile people are slightly less likely to lie, knowing they might be caught.

That said, here's an example of the type of dishonesty about results that you'll find here: a couple of long break-even stretches were mentioned above. How do you think the people going through that "break-even" period were doing about 10k-20k hands prior to the end of it? My guess is, they were doing much worse. So actually, when you hear about a 100k break-even stretch, that is likely to be a 70k stretch where the player was -5bbs/100 or whatever, followed by a 30k stretch where they were +12bbs/100, or something similar. Again, I know this is not scientific, but I think people who have a lot of experience with high-stakes, highly successful players will agree that there's less honesty with others when the going is rough.

This is no crime, since your results are your own business and nobody else's, but it can have negative effects on others, when you get something like a public consensus (i.e. the ideas on this board) reflecting that dishonesty. Play a lot of HSNL, and you will experience some things that will turn your stomach, whether you're a nitty grinder or a world-class LAG.

Re: Downswings.
 

Re: Downswings.
 

good post cero

Re: Downswings.
 

ummm, 85k hand breakeven isn't that bad.

Re: Downswings.
 

Yes it is possible and it is very easy to simulate various scenarios in Excel for your own expected WR and SD for a couple million hands. If you do this I promise you will see a lot worse stretches that what you are on now.

Re: Downswings.
 

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good post cero

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Re: Downswings.
 

tbh, i am a pretty big winner and i make so many [censored] dumb mistakes when i play. its not outright tilt its just sloppiness and pansiness (no way this dude is calling a crai but meh, better just fold and move on). while i agree that a lot of the current super stars probably have ran on the right side of variance, i think some of yall underestimate the difference between a solid winner and a truly great player. ofc a 18/15 tag with a true wr on 3 will go on sick losing stretches but is that really "sick variance" or is it in large part his own fault for making all these mistakes and not exploiting all of his edges in the best way he can?

this may sound like a sick high number pulled out of nowhere but it wouldnt surprise me if i learned that the mistakes i make when playing cost me 1-2 stacks of EV for each 1000 hands i play.

Re: Downswings.
 

i play mid limits and I was winning between 80-120 buyins a month between jan and april, and then May I lost like 40 buyins in the first 2 weeks of the month loool ( i ended up having an even month, after grinding like crazy)

When you play over 80k hands/month downswings are inevitable, how you handle them is whats important. Playing just a little worse can really hurt you.

loool, I lost 16 straight combo draws earlier this month, fulltilt was rigged against me for that week [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Downswings.
 

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i play mid limits and I was winning between 80-120 buyins a month between jan and april, and then May I lost like 40 buyins in the first 2 weeks of the month loool ( i ended up having an even month, after grinding like crazy)

When you play over 80k hands/month downswings are inevitable, how you handle them is whats important. Playing just a little worse can really hurt you.

loool, I lost 16 straight combo draws earlier this month, fulltilt was rigged against me for that week [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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lol @ 40 buy in downswings

Re: Downswings.
 

Hi,

Just for the background:

I moved from 1/2 to 10/20 (I moved up limits like every month approximately, doing all of them, ie, 1/2, 2/4, 3/6, 5/10, and 10/20).

Since I play poker I had only one losing month, which has been the one when I tried to move up at 25/50.

I played like 80K hands at 25/50, and lost about 110k $.

I am definitely convinced that my play was not optimal, I took too many marginal spots, I got outplayed , I tilted probably 25% of it etc.

I went back to 10/20 for 5 months, where I still show a consistent +6PTBB/100.

I also know another player who play higher than me, and plays better than me, never tilts, and never had a losing month ever yet.He just carefully chooses when to play, when he feels good, and mistakes from him are pretty rare.(I saw maybe 2 since I know him....)

So, I guess it's pretty difficult to answer to your question, but I think that if you play really seriously, stay focused, without tilting, and you spend as much time working on your game as you spend playing (reading, reviewing HH, discussing with friends, sweating stronger players...) 100K hands downswings due to only "bad luck" are probably very unlikely.

Re: Downswings.
 

thanks cero (:, I was just thinking that if you can't handle the variance OP maybe move down a level and get your win rate up?

Re: Downswings.
 

As a relatively new player the subject of downswing interests me greatly, because it exists I need to understand it to deal with it correctly.

I have read most significant 2plus2 articles on the subject and have concluded that 100k downswings are the result of play issues not luck issues.

Downswings do occur as does good luck and bad luck but in Poker we can measure the level of luck we have by calculating, when we lost a big pot, if we got the money in good or bad.

After each session win or lose record if you put the money in ahead or behind.

I would ask anyone who has had a break even or losing 100k to honestly review the sessions and calculate the % of time the correct decisions was made.

If this practice is maintained after each session the Large pots won or lost can be further categorized to include Tilted hands and Set-ups, to take it to this level we all also have to have an understanding of Tilt and what it is.

I would also be as profound to say that anyone who has experienced the 100k downswing never implemented the above at the time.................honestly.

Re: Downswings.
 

hahaha welcome to HSNL. Awesome first post.

Re: Downswings.
 

I use pokertracker to find out if a downswing is due to bad luck or bad play.For example i take the stats from the whole of last year(800k hands) and look at how many BB/100 i made with my premium hands.Then i compare this to the month where i am running badly.If i make much less BB/100 with those premium hands i think it is mostly due to bad luck.That is because i imagine that you play those premium hands the same most of the time,no matter how you run.

Re: Downswings.
 

coduresa from party 2k?? man blast from the past

Re: Downswings.
 

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I use pokertracker to find out if a downswing is due to bad luck or bad play.For example i take the stats from the whole of last year(800k hands) and look at how many BB/100 i made with my premium hands.Then i compare this to the month where i am running badly.If i make much less BB/100 with those premium hands i think it is mostly due to bad luck.That is because i imagine that you play those premium hands the same most of the time,no matter how you run.

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If you miss value bets because youre scared of running bad or the like that would be a form of tilt= decrease winrate.

Re: Downswings.
 

There were some really good things said in this post, especially cero's. I really feel like very few players can fully wrap their heads around the implications of "variance", instead of just thinking of it as a reason for their downswing.

I also wanted to add that I've only been playing NL cash seriously for about 14 months, but in that timespan I've definitely seen the game change. A year ago, the nature of the game lent itself to smaller variance with some good game selection. Nowadays if you are playing high-stakes 6m, you are rarely at a table with less than 3 other "capable" cash game players. They may have leaks, but they still force you to be putting your chips in the pot much more frequently. The new tables create far more variance and thus, larger downswings. In fact, I think the games nowadays can also create some upswings that may not have been possible a year ago simply because the chips were not "flying" and thus their weren't as many opportunities to get stacks, regardless of your equity.

Re: Downswings.
 

Another thing people don't understand about variance is that it lets "anything" be possible... its just a matter of *how* possible. You are not stating anything by saying, "its possible for a great player to have a 30 BI downswing." That has no substance, because its possible for *anyone* to have a 200 BI downswing. Albeit, it may be *near* impossible for a good player to have a massive downswing and it may be waaaaay out on the distribution curve, but its probability of occuring is still >0%. A more appropriate thing to say would be, "10% of all great players have a 30 BI downswing over a stretch of 100k hands." It's the "% chance of occuring" for a particular sized downswing that has meaning.

Re: Downswings.
 

Hey Lefort,

Lots of good points. Along the lines of what you were saying about variance making larger upswings and downswings more likely, I think people who run very good before they run very bad are conditioned to think of the running good period as closer to "normal" than the running bad period. This can be a dangerous trap if you expect things to eventually revert to a place you consider normal, but which is actually an unlikely hot streak.

Re: Downswings.
 

Yeah I totally agree. And to make matters worse, I think a very large portion of the player pool started out their poker careers running hot. Because otherwise, they would have busto'd a few times and quit before they "blossomed" into real players. I think this concept has been discussed before... kind of like a "survival of the luckiest" until people develop the knowledge/skills necessary to stay in the game, then from there we all get "normal" luck.

Re: Downswings.
 

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Yeah I totally agree. And to make matters worse, I think a very large portion of the player pool started out their poker careers running hot. Because otherwise, they would have busto'd a few times and quit before they "blossomed" into real players. I think this concept has been discussed before... kind of like a "survival of the luckiest" until people develop the knowledge/skills necessary to stay in the game, then from there we all get "normal" luck.

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QFT.

Re: Downswings.
 

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Yeah I totally agree. And to make matters worse, I think a very large portion of the player pool started out their poker careers running hot. Because otherwise, they would have busto'd a few times and quit before they "blossomed" into real players. I think this concept has been discussed before... kind of like a "survival of the luckiest" until people develop the knowledge/skills necessary to stay in the game, then from there we all get "normal" luck.

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QFT.

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Re: Downswings.
 

I don`t play High stakes, however I have played about 250k hands since I started playing online last year. I have never had a loosing month and moved up thru levels pretty fast. I had my 1st big loose beginning of august when PS introduced HU tables, since then I have played almost 50k hands and with the expection of 5k hands or so things have just run insane. First the downswing and then the breakeven stretch. The worst thing is that IMO I`m playing better then ever before and due to the downswing I`m even playing lower thenn my usual game. I always seem to be getting the 2nd best hand, and a some really bad suckouts. As you described I can`t find anything wrong with my game. I review the biggest net looses and wins I had for each session and it looks ok, beside some small mistakes. This can become absolutely frustrating, and I wish you good luck.

Re: Downswings.
 

You cannot compare HU vs.fullring variance(or even 6-max for that matter) on an even plane.

Its not even on the same planet!

Re: Downswings.
 

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I just wanted to add that I had an 84 buy in up swing in May and won everyday except for one. In June I lost the first 9 days in a row and got absolutely crushed. I was down almost 45 buy ins in 50k hands. I think these swings will happen to everyone if they play Millions and millions of hands over their lifetime.

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The bigger the upswing, the bigger the eventual downswing usually is. Running that well probably changed how you played, so when you ran average/bad again you played losing poker for a while.

Re: Downswings.
 

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Hey Lefort,

Lots of good points. Along the lines of what you were saying about variance making larger upswings and downswings more likely, I think people who run very good before they run very bad are conditioned to think of the running good period as closer to "normal" than the running bad period. This can be a dangerous trap if you expect things to eventually revert to a place you consider normal, but which is actually an unlikely hot streak.

Yeah I totally agree. And to make matters worse, I think a very large portion of the player pool started out their poker careers running hot. Because otherwise, they would have busto'd a few times and quit before they "blossomed" into real players. I think this concept has been discussed before... kind of like a "survival of the luckiest" until people develop the knowledge/skills necessary to stay in the game, then from there we all get "normal" luck.


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its disturbing how accurately these two posts sum up my first 4 months playing online poker seriously. ran like god in my first month and a half, built an oversized bankroll, and then ran like absolute [censored] for the next month, figuring that i was just running bad and ignoring all the leaks in my game.

thankfully ive managed to turn that around and become more realistic in terms of my skill level and how i approach playing poker. in hindsight i think that learning to deal with negative variance and being able to work through it and not tilt or give up is the most important and most difficult skill to develop. it definitely was for me.

Re: Downswings.
 

Tomson,

Very very long downswings are very very possible and almost surely will happen at some point. I have never allowed myself a downswing for such a long time as if I start running realy really bad I'll play as low as $200nl if that's where I need to play in order to find someone I can beat considering my terrible luck. But I have "run bad" and been horribly under expectation for 300k+ hands before. Variance can be sick. Of course it isn't all bad luck. And it isn't necessarily bad play either. What I call it is microtiliting. I think when you are running very bad for a very long time you don't necessarily play bad but mayb enot your best. I mean how could you? We are not all robots where we can just ignore the fact that we are getting [censored] on 5 tables at once in all in pots. So when that happens you may not necessariyl tilt and shove all in everywhere but you may not play the next few hands to your potnetial. So in effect running bad compunds the problem and a talispin occurs. Say if your expectation is 4bb per hundred. We all know that 2-3bb differential per 100 in a 100k hand stretch happens to everyone from time to time. In your favor and against. But let's say when it is against you you probably also microtilt like 1 or maybve 2bb/100 as a result. So you can be like 5 bb/100 off in a 100k hand stretch if you add the two toegther and there you have a long downswing. As long as you feel you are playing well then [censored] everyone else. Most people haven't experienced one and they are clueless morons and always will be until it happens to them. Take it from me. I have play over 4 million hands of poker and I feel like I am well qualified on this subject. I have had two very long stretches of running bad in my career. Ones where I was off by like 2ish BB per hundred ofer 300k+ hands. It happens, it doesn't happen often but it happens. I also know another really good player who makes over $1 a hand lifetime and currently has only made $50k in his last 180k hands. He says it has happened to him before too. Keep your chin up and my advice would be to swallow your pride and play a little lower. You can make a lot of money and you don't need to play 5/10 to do it. Just play a little lower and regain some confidence and then moce back up and tear it up. Good luck

Leatherass

Re: Downswings.
 

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We are not all robots

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I have play over 4 million hands of poker

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We're not all robots, but I'm pretty sure you are.

Re: Downswings.
 

Thanks Leather, I really appreciate your opinion.

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Just play a little lower and regain some confidence

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That's what I've been doing and probably will for the next 2 months at least.

Variance is a bitch.

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np

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Tomson, I dont have much to say aside from I remember you played a very solid game when I used to play alot with you (UB, about 8 months ago at 5-10). IMO you're defnitely a winning player from what i can recall. Id highly suggest what others said about moving down, even if you're bankrolled for higher levels. GL in future

Re: Downswings.
 

You guys always forget that it depends too much on your opponents, if you have more weak opponents (euro sites) than americans on stars or full tilt you are making more money when you have a run and losing less when you cannot make a pair because they don't know how to bet, etc.

Plus weak opponents are more likely to give you the right odds to play more draws or are easier to bluff.

Say brunson plays vs brunson, its hard to make money either way.