Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

This happened about a week ago. I'm just getting around to posting it now so I don't recall exact stack sizes/details. But this is close enough:

Nightly Stars 100k tourny, like 970 started, 40-45 players remain. Blinds are either 750/1500 or 1k/2k. I have 80k and am 7th in chips.

I just got moved to this table like 3 hands ago. I have almost everyone on my table covered.

I'm in the CO w/T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG folds. UTG+1 shoves for 68k. ????? No reads...haven't seen him before.

What do I do here? If I call and win, I'm the chip leader by a good margin. If I call and lose I'm on the road to busto. If I fold I'm still in v good shape but will feel like a [censored].

??

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I'd say dont risk it, only because your in good shape and that type of move could be anything. Your probably ahead but the chance that your not + the overcards he could have makes it too risky IMO.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

i can see villian doing this with a small pair
most players pushing that have over 15BB usually have a low to medium pair

so i dont mind a call here

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I he raises to 8K, I shove to make use of the FE. But here to cold call an all-in for most of my stack, I am only happy seeing 99 or less so I fold here most of the time.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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i can see villian doing this with a small pair


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I don't play many donkaments. Is this what we usually see by an open push by an unknown with a decent stack? If this was early in the tourny I'd likely turbo-call that [censored]. But this is with 40ish players left. I'm not sure what to make of it.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
i can see villian doing this with a small pair


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I don't play many donkaments. Is this what we usually see by an open push by an unknown with a decent stack? If this was early in the tourny I'd likely turbo-call that [censored]. But this is with 40ish players left. I'm not sure what to make of it.

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It's not 99 as much as it is JJ and it's AK more than anything else IMO.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

folddddd

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I find this more often a big, non-A, pocket pair more often than it is a small PP.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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folddddd

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Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Yep. This is JJ/AK so often. Scared to play a flop.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Looks like a fairly clear fold to me.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Villian is definitely afraid to see a flop. Often it's going to be JJ, QQ, AK. Occasionally AQs down to A10s. Occasionally 22-99. It might even be KK not wanting to see an A flop. I think the key factor in the decision is not having any reads on villian. Wait a couple of rounds and see if he's trying this too often. If so, snap him off.
In this spot, fold the 10s. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Just a hypothetical Q - what if OP had JJ? Still a fold?

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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Just a hypothetical Q - what if OP had JJ? Still a fold?

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not sure but i'd call with QQ

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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Just a hypothetical Q - what if OP had JJ? Still a fold?

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I'd probably call.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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Just a hypothetical Q - what if OP had JJ? Still a fold?

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I'd probably call.

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Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

easy fold. With QQ I insta-call. With JJ, I find a fold.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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Just a hypothetical Q - what if OP had JJ? Still a fold?

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Without a solid read, my calling range here is probably QQ+. My end game is more of shove game than a call game.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

If you are a bad player you should call and gamble. But since I guess you are good player you should fold and outplay/outpush your opponents.


Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Texas Hold'em, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
TsTc

Hand 2:
Range of hands: AA , KK , QQ , JJ , TT , 99 , 88 , 77
AKs, AQs, AKo

Hand | 1 | 2 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win | 48126 | 49962 |
Draw | 1912 | 1912 |
Lose | 49962 | 48126 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 49.08% | 50.92% |
------+--------------+--------------+

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

He has AK like 75% of time, IMO, still not sure i could bring myself to call here.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I think you guys are all crazy and your weighing of hands is weigh off. I feel TT is the absolute margin and its very hard but prob +EV call and JJ is an instacall.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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I think you guys are all crazy and your weighing of hands is weigh off. I feel TT is the absolute margin and its very hard but prob +EV call and JJ is an instacall.

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There are too many variables. Somebody here did a reasonable range calculation and TT is about 50/50.

However, I factor in the following: My stack vs. the all-in stack size, all other stack sizes, the blinds, how active the table is, how loose the other players are, how tough the other players are, your own table image, whether you are playing for first or to make the most money, etc.

I think these factors can swing your EV one way or the other. It's very situational. Those programs like PokerStove that calculate EV can't take all of these other factors into consideration.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

the range wasn't reasonable at all. Although it held probably all his possible hands. The range is hugely weighted towards the hands that we beat and hugely skewed away from the hands that beat us. The times that this is QQKKAA is so slim and the times that this is AK is huge. JJ is prob in here a lot which is why with JJ its super insta call but TT looks pretty solid here from my view

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Fold I'd call QQ and JJ is close. The thing is a lot of people never go deep in these things so they get really excited and don't want to bust so they do stupid stuff like shove KK/AA here.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I would fold... I don't like calling my whole stack at this stage to what is a coinflip at best (even though there's a slight possibility he's got a lower pair). I wouldn't risk it, but that's just me!

with JJ I'm having a harder time folding, but I probably would fold as well, QQ I'm probably calling without much hesitation

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

villian has like 34xBB
M prob around 17

the thing that makes this play so strange is that he doesnt need to go All In with QQ+ AQ+
i mean if it were me i would just wanted to get value out of those hands instead of getting the blinds
with that range i would still want a caller and face a flop

i cant see why AK wouldnt want to see a flop here
counting on villian to be a decent player making it to last 40ish
ofcourse this could be Aj+ and JJ+

but except for JJ or lower pair i couldnt see what player that made it this far would just open push with an M of 17 with a hand he can make enough value with just playing


thats why i said i would expect a smaller pair here

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

Good reasoning behind this...

Although I personally sometimes play this the same when I'm holding QQ+, just to throw in some variations, hoping to get other players to think I'm holding a smaller pair... But I think in general, you may be very right, this might well be some 55-1010 or similar... Anyway, I stick to my point, I don't fancy calling here for half my stack...

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I tanked and folded, a short stack behind me called with somethingorother.

Villian had 55 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Yeah I guess it's a fold overall. Yet this is one of those times where I wanted to call REAAAALLLY bad because I obv I wanna make it deep and also have a big stack going towards the final table. But 55? Wtf?

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

I remember a situation I was in a while ago in a big sunday and I made the call with 1010. He had go ole AK like I thought but I was looking to accumulate some chips. Spiked an ace..oh well. I agree with whoever said this is gonna be AK ALOT and some 88-jj.

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

lol ok here it goes

"i told you so"

hehe j/k

Re: Two Tens facing an open shove (Stars 100k)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can see villian doing this with a small pair


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I don't play many donkaments. Is this what we usually see by an open push by an unknown with a decent stack? If this was early in the tourny I'd likely turbo-call that [censored]. But this is with 40ish players left. I'm not sure what to make of it.

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It's not 99 as much as it is JJ and it's AK more than anything else IMO.

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this has been my experience