Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Overbetting is when you make a bet or raise larger than the size of the pot, sometimes significantly. This is a move that isn't used frequently at lower stakes, but I wanted to have a discussion about it. These are just some initial thoughts and while many of the uses depend on the situations and players involved, I'd appreciate comments on when you use this overbet tactic.

No Limit Holdem gives us the opportunity to apply significant pressure to our opponents by using large bets to try and make them make incorrect decisions.

Commonly, the overbet is used in situations such as:

1. The River Overbet - You've made it to the river and believe that you have the best hand (most times the nuts) and the villian has the 2nd nuts or a hand that can easily call more than the size of the pot.

2. Flop Bet, 3-Bet AI - A common line with a set or big draw against a preflop raiser OOP who we believe has a big overpair is to lead and move AI over a raise.

3. Preflop - Frequently people find spots to ovebet AI preflop with big pairs or ace-king.

Now, while these spots are fairly common, I think they often only represent one angle on overbetting--one where you are certainly ahead.

Yet, overbetting in other situations is far less common. Sometimes this is for good reason. Arguably that we only get calls from hands that beat us and fold out weaker holdings. However, removing this tactic from our playbook really hamstrings things--particularly against opponents who are semi-competent, but on the weak-tight side.

The first example that jumps to mind comes from my own play. Say I am the preflop agressor and cbet the flop with a one-pair hand on a fairly drawless board with someone check-calling me. It's not uncommon for us to try and utlize pot control on the turn and check behind so that we can call a reasonably sized river bet or value bet if checked to. However, if this bet is 2x the size of the pot--I may find myself getting squirrly. Did the guy go for a turn CR and miss, now trying to make up for it?

Just wanted to get the ball rolling for a broader discussion than just hands, but certainly we can use examples to articulate further.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

This play is so sick as a bluff too. You kind of have to take a guess as to opponent tendencies taking into account the flow of the game too. I would basically never overbet unless you feel very confident in your read of their hand and whether or not they will call. Its far more likely you get looked up if you didn't raise preflop and do something like c/r the flop and then have a flush draw brick so think about that too. I have a hand from last night where I think an overbet was a decent play. Yes, I realize that I had the best hand a portion of the time, but he hardly ever has a hand that can call outside of KQ imo. Not the best hand for this, but just the last one that I could find.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($194)
Button ($75.35)
SB ($38)
BB ($198.80)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($404.35)
Hero ($218.15)
MP2 ($243.85)
MP3 ($590.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($19) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, MP3 calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>, MP3 calls $32.

River: ($111) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $164.15 (All-In)</font>

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Not much time, but I often use it against calling players when I have the goods. They still tend to call a 1.5x to 2x bet.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Most of my overbets are on the river. This is because my opponent has already called me twice, so my overbet stands a decent chance of getting called (if it's for value).

And you don't need the nuts to overbet for value. You just need a better hand than what he'd call with. Generally anything better than top two pair is way ahead of anyone's calling range (this is dependant on the board texture of course, two pair on a 4-straight board is not so good obv).

Overbetting works best when your hand is deceptive. For example if you're chasing a flush draw, and get there on the river, overbetting is usually bad against anyone observant, because it's obvious the flush got there. But if instead you had bottom pair and a flush draw, and hit trips on the river instead of the flush, your hand is deceptive and overbetting might be a good idea.

Just some random thoughts...

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

he i overbet very often.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
8 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $1013
UTG+1: $1000
MP1: $987
MP2: $2384.25
CO: $945
Button: $1110.50
SB: $190
Hero: $995

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/6s.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/7s.png
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to $40</font>, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/6d.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/3s.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/6h.png ($125, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets $80</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $220</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/8c.png ($565, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $735</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 calls all-in $727</font>.
Uncalled bets: $8 returned to Hero.

River: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/qs.png ($2019, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $2019)


Results:
Final pot: $2019
<font color="#ffffff">Hero shows 6s 7s </font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP1 doesn't show Td Th </font>

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

You guys will think I'm levelling but I'm not.

You should overbet any time you are 99+% sure that you will get a fold or a call (one or the other) depending on the strength of your hand.

Not doing so is a huge leak, and a common leak.

I was better about it like a month ago but anyone who played with me can attest that I overbet in some spots they may have found bizarre.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Eazy, can you give an example?

We are rarely 99% certain of what our opponents will do, but I certainly understand your point.

As we've seen, the typical overbetting scenario is when we are very sure we are ahead. Anyone have other scenarios where overbetting might be good when we do not have the best hand? It is very villian/flow dependent, but I'm trying to think of other spots where I am uncomfortable calling a large bet.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Not sure how a busted flush draw can call you???

[ QUOTE ]
This play is so sick as a bluff too. You kind of have to take a guess as to opponent tendencies taking into account the flow of the game too. I would basically never overbet unless you feel very confident in your read of their hand and whether or not they will call. Its far more likely you get looked up if you didn't raise preflop and do something like c/r the flop and then have a flush draw brick so think about that too. I have a hand from last night where I think an overbet was a decent play. Yes, I realize that I had the best hand a portion of the time, but he hardly ever has a hand that can call outside of KQ imo. Not the best hand for this, but just the last one that I could find.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($194)
Button ($75.35)
SB ($38)
BB ($198.80)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($404.35)
Hero ($218.15)
MP2 ($243.85)
MP3 ($590.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($19) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, MP3 calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>, MP3 calls $32.

River: ($111) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $164.15 (All-In)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not much time, but I often use it against calling players when I have the goods. They still tend to call a 1.5x to 2x bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should clarify. The goods doesn't necessarily equal the nuts. The goods can be TPTK versus certain opponents. Yes, I balance this out with some overbets with air.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure how a busted flush draw can call you???

[ QUOTE ]
This play is so sick as a bluff too. You kind of have to take a guess as to opponent tendencies taking into account the flow of the game too. I would basically never overbet unless you feel very confident in your read of their hand and whether or not they will call. Its far more likely you get looked up if you didn't raise preflop and do something like c/r the flop and then have a flush draw brick so think about that too. I have a hand from last night where I think an overbet was a decent play. Yes, I realize that I had the best hand a portion of the time, but he hardly ever has a hand that can call outside of KQ imo. Not the best hand for this, but just the last one that I could find.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($194)
Button ($75.35)
SB ($38)
BB ($198.80)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($404.35)
Hero ($218.15)
MP2 ($243.85)
MP3 ($590.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls $8, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($19) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, MP3 calls $14.

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>, MP3 calls $32.

River: ($111) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $164.15 (All-In)</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I said that I have the best hand a portion of the time, but I'm pretty sure he didn't have a FD given my read and stats although I could be wrong.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I overbet mainly on the river. Often it is when I make a FH on the river and there is a flush or straight possibility on the board.

Sometimes I will play a made hand like a flush draw. If the draw misses, I then make an overbet on the river. Which reeks of missed draw, trying to steal pot.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

berge,

the natural bluff overbet would be the third barrel on the river. we'll often see "call down to reasonable bet sizes" advice here, and it likely mirrors a lot of common nl thinking with moderate made hands. if we call pf, donk the flop, and donk the turn, then on certain boards and vs certain villains a big river overbet will be far too much for guy to showdown less than top two.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I also tend to overbet the flop when playing vs short stacks.

Initially its for value, but once i get a read on how capable they are of folding it can be in bluff spots as well.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I like this post berge.
So here is a hand I played last night. I guess it wasn't quite an overbet b/c he didn't have me covered but I would have done exactly the same thing and it illustrates the same ideas.

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.85</font>, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Another reason to overbet is to negate a disadvantage in position or information by getting all-in or at least committed. That is, if we act first or if our hand is better defined than the villain's, we might prefer to get all the money in rather than play the next street.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.85</font>, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this is a terrible play as a bluff. You have the best hand here like 80% of the time. Why would you think he has AJ/AQ? Limp-call, check flop, check-call half pot on turn? He's either blocking with a King, or has the flush which he doesn't fold. I think it's extremely unlikely you bluffed him off a better hand than yours.

Oh also, your line is completely unbelievable. You rarely check this flop with twopair+ or a flush draw. This is a better value bet than it is bluff.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I turned my hand into a bluff here b/c I was almost certain that he had either AJ or AQ and I didn't want to passively take the showdown. This is a spot I have been thinking a lot about lately and I was pretty happy with my play, so I'm glad you brought this up.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $29.50
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $43.70
MP1: $213.25
MP2: $77.40
CO: $60.85
Hero (BTN): $73
SB: $36.05

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.75

Flop: ($11) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $6.50, MP2 folds

River: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.85</font>, UTG folds

Results: $42 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $40 (+$21.25 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this is a terrible play as a bluff. You have the best hand here like 80% of the time. Why would you think he has AJ/AQ? Limp-call, check flop, check-call half pot on turn? He's either blocking with a King, or has the flush which he doesn't fold. I think it's extremely unlikely you bluffed him off a better hand than yours.

Oh also, your line is completely unbelievable. You rarely check this flop with twopair+ or a flush draw. This is a better value bet than it is bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]


You make valid points but I don't think they change the effect of the hand very much. Maybe I misspoke when I said I'm "turning my hand into a bluff." I agree he has a KQ or some K here relatively often. I don't make less money than if I called though, so the raise isn't worse than calling.

Against this particular villain though I was confident AJ made up a very large portion of his range, and I also knew he wasn't calling a huge raise on the river.
As for "[either having King or flush]" I guess we just disagree but I think table dynamics/image made AJ and AQ to a lesser degree quite likely and flush quite unlikely.


I have been looking at hands like this lately b/c I will usually call b/c I feel the flush calls and I am ahead often. However, I have decided with a strong read a shove to fold out AQ/AJ is greater EV. Obviously reads are of paramount importance in a spot like this.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

[/ QUOTE ]


lol, you're joking right with your first statement?

Firstly, it's not $180 to win $50- our odds are significantly worse! It's $160 to win just $25.

If we are generous and assume he has a seven 5% of the time (tight players don't see a flop with A7 UTG, and 67 is also unlikely and he would probably have raised more on the turn) and calls without a seven 25% of the time (for a split) then our Expected Value is (70% * $25) - (5% * $160) = approx +$10 (and that's being generous!)

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Smart Money: I like the bluff, but I think you can get away with a smaller overbet.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Smart Money: I like the bluff, but I think you can get away with a smaller overbet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Good point. There is an optimal overbet calculated by:

(p(villain folding) * $25) - (p(villain holds a 7) * $overbet)

If we bet too little, it decreases the probability of the villain folding a split pot, but it also reduces our loss when we are beat and vice versa.

However, when the probability of the villain having a hand that beats us is very small (as in this example) then it pays to keep the overbet large.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Here's another example from the same session:

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $191.90
Hero (BB): $203.70
UTG: $90.20
UTG+1: $177.70
MP1: $222.40
MP2: $176.10
CO: $70
BTN: $33

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
6 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $8</font>, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $16</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $32</font>, SB calls $16

River: ($92) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $157.70 and is All-In</font>, SB folds

Results: $92 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $89 (+$43 NET)


The villain actually folded an Ace here. (During the next hand he typed in the chat box that he had "made a sick fold.)"

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A less common, but effective, overbet is when the river ensures the pot is [almost certainly] split but you represent a stronger hand.

Here is an example from this afternoon where the [tightish] villain almost certainly has an Ace but the probability of him having a 7 kicker is very slim- making the overbet a +EV move.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $204.35
SB: $196
Hero (BB): $188
UTG: $203.85
MP: $291.70
CO: $405.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $10

River: ($53) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $162 and is All-In</font>, UTG folds

Results: $53 Pot ($2.65 Rake)
Hero mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $50.35 (+$24.35 NET)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty bad unless you actually have a 7. i agree you will be folding out a lot of chopping hands, but i don't think the pot is anywhere near big enough to make this kind of play. you're risking 180 to win 50, and the times you are called you're often getting smoked.

that being said, his turn bet does polarize his hand towards ace high straights.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think it is a good bet to make on this board as your hand will specifically be the complete nuts if you overbet this board. I really think its a matter of multilevel thinking.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I like overbets for semi bluffs a lot. Here is an example from a live game I was playing:

Preflop I had around 390 in chips, the opponent had around 500. This was 1/2. I was on the button and he was BB

Folded to me with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I raised to 12.

BB raised to 30. I called.

Flop came ($62) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] He bet 30 and I called.

Turn: ($122) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He bet 70 and I moved all in for 270 on top.

I think that holdings like big slick have some fold equity here, as well as Aces, and surely queens. 7/8 is definitely in my range, as well as 10s or 9s, or even 10/9. At least this is what was going through my head I'd appreciate critiques.

I think that the big key to this play, however, is to never do it twice to the same opponent.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

The villain actually folded an Ace here. (During the next hand he typed in the chat box that he had "made a sick fold.)"

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure he actually folded his pocket queens because he thought you had aces.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's another example from the same session:

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $191.90
Hero (BB): $203.70
UTG: $90.20
UTG+1: $177.70
MP1: $222.40
MP2: $176.10
CO: $70
BTN: $33

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
6 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $8</font>, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $16</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $32</font>, SB calls $16

River: ($92) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $157.70 and is All-In</font>, SB folds

Results: $92 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and WON $89 (+$43 NET)


The villain actually folded an Ace here. (During the next hand he typed in the chat box that he had "made a sick fold.)"

[/ QUOTE ]

the two hands aren't very similar. I like this one a lot, and it's fine. he rarely ever has a 2 here and if he's good he should be c/c all the time.

in the first example, is there a converter error? on the river there is 53 in the pot, UTG covers, so you are betting 162 into a 53 dollar pot. maybe i'm missing something here...

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]

in the first example, is there a converter error? on the river there is 53 in the pot, UTG covers, so you are betting 162 into a 53 dollar pot. maybe i'm missing something here...

[/ QUOTE ]

You already have 50% equity in the pot (as 95% of the time we are looking at a split here) so if the hand is checked through then we will pick up half of the current pot.

We are trying to steal the other half, ~$25.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Here's an example of overbetting for value- basically I was pretty sure shortie had a a straight and wasn't folding because he was comitted, and the bigger stack either had a straight or he didn't, but he was likely calling/folding regardless of my bet size. I think I had to raise here because a diamond or board pairing could dampen my action, and any raise is going to be threatening given the re-raise already in front of me, so might as well go for it all. Plus, a push has the bonus of looking slightly absurd.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $13
UTG+1: $37.50
MP1: $139.35
MP2: $21.30
CO: $23.95
Button: $17.45
SB: $46.20
Hero: $50

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $5.25</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $49.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 calls all-in $33.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 calls all-in $15.55</font>.
Uncalled bets: $12.5 returned to Hero.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($80.6, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $64.4, Sidepot 1: $32.4)


Results:
Final pot: $80.6

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I have overbet the pot PF with AA or KK OOP (say in the blinds) against a bunch of limpers. This is at uNL of course. I have found that I thin the field down to 1 or 2 callers (you always get at least 1 at uNL) and they are usually calling with hands like a smaller pair that has the least chance of running me down post flop. Or you find someone who is a little deeper than your pf-raise and shoves into you with like 88. I looked for a while to find one of these in my PT I am going to bed and maybe ill find an example later. As far as SPR's go this makes playing these hands OOP so easy...its just a shove on the flop at this point.

This is only for uNL I havent even tried it at 25NL only at 10NL.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

All the time I see people overbet shove with AA PF when they are 3bet. This accomplishes stacking KK and not much else, but I see more and more players do it.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an example of overbetting for value- basically I was pretty sure shortie had a a straight and wasn't folding because he was comitted, and the bigger stack either had a straight or he didn't, but he was likely calling/folding regardless of my bet size. I think I had to raise here because a diamond or board pairing could dampen my action, and any raise is going to be threatening given the re-raise already in front of me, so might as well go for it all. Plus, a push has the bonus of looking slightly absurd.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $13
UTG+1: $37.50
MP1: $139.35
MP2: $21.30
CO: $23.95
Button: $17.45
SB: $46.20
Hero: $50

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $5.25</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $49.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 calls all-in $33.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 calls all-in $15.55</font>.
Uncalled bets: $12.5 returned to Hero.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($80.6, 0 player + 3 all-in - Main pot: $64.4, Sidepot 1: $32.4)


Results:
Final pot: $80.6

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but this hand is 100% standard and doesn't illustrate the OP's point one bit. Clearly one of them had the J, possibly QJ as well, and the other had like J,x w/ fl redraw and assumed HE was freerolling you.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I said my hand was a bad example, but I didn't mean that you all had to post ones where you overbet in really stupid spots too. Sorry for leading y'all down that road.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

I agree. Yours was a bad example.

But well done for trying.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I said my hand was a bad example, but I didn't mean that you all had to post ones where you overbet in really stupid spots too. Sorry for leading y'all down that road.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think people have pretty much covered the entire spectrum, so basically it's never good to overbet the pot apparently.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
but this hand is 100% standard

[/ QUOTE ]True, but I've seen plenty of players play spots like this differently, so even if its the correct way to play the hand, people miss it. Since people miss it, I figured it'd be hepful to post. If it was unhelpful, then my bad.

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't illustrate the OP's point one bit

[/ QUOTE ]Actually, I just realized that I misread OPs post, so I apologize [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I said my hand was a bad example, but I didn't mean that you all had to post ones where you overbet in really stupid spots too. Sorry for leading y'all down that road.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL!

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
All the time I see people overbet shove with AA PF when they are 3bet. This accomplishes stacking KK and not much else, but I see more and more players do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 3 bet AI w/ AA from the SB last weak against an UTG raiser and got called for 100BBs by AKo. This is 100NL. People just don't expect you to overplay AA like this, as long as you don't do it everytime, it works in good spots.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

Overbets on the flop were covered here.

Basically, overbets on coordinated flops are people protecting made hands.

Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think people have pretty much covered the entire spectrum, so basically it's never good to overbet the pot apparently.

[/ QUOTE ]
So, um, why aren't we all playing pot limit?

I think about this question a lot. If overbetting is bad, or is only good once in a rare while, then why not play PL? If we're playing NL, shouldn't we be taking more advantage of the N part of that?

A lot of the strategy we've all been raised on advocates the classic 2/3 to 3/4 PSB, because it has the advantage of being a good bet size whatever we're trying to accomplish. But I think that in embracing that, we've lost sight of when to risk the overbet. I know that I overbet with what I think is the best hand on the river, and sometimes with air on the river because of that. But flop and turn overbets--which I do live fairly regularly to play a big pot when desired--seem a lot less successful online, so I basically avoid them. I think that's a large leak in my online play.