*** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

BUF @ NYJ 4:05 PM
HOU @ SD 4:05 PM
JAC @ TB 4:05 PM
WAS @ NE 4:15 PM
NO @ SF 4:15 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

The only one I got is NE/WAS Over 48.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what I'm thinking. I think San Diego's mind will be partly focused on the fires, and when dealing with a 3-4 Houston team that's trying to really make a push in this league I don't think it'll be an easy game for them.

With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury, and everyone's mind on their homes and families in the San Diego area, coming against a Houston team who's mad at their loss last week (as well as knowing they came within a TD of Indy in the 3rd week) will be nothing short of a tough game.

I don't how the spread got so high, but getting +365 on the Houston moneyline, I had to take them for the upset. I just don't think they'll let this game through their grip.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury

[/ QUOTE ]
As an SD fan, I'll trade Parker for Chris Chambers any day of the week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

1u BUF @ NYJ -2.5
1u HOU +10 @ SD
1u JAC +3.5 @ TB
1u WAS +17 @ NE
1u NO @ SF +3

had to buy .5 points in some games like 49ers and Redskins.
(pinnacle)

Good luck all, enjoy the games!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Trying for a middle on the WAS/NE game. I've got:

WAS +17 -115 5.75u
NE -15.5 -110 5.5u

4 outcomes:
1) NE wins by 18 or more - lose 1st, win 2nd, -0.75u
2) NE wins by exactly 17 - push 1st, win 2nd, +11u
3) NE wins by exactly 16 - win both, +22.5u
4) NE wins by 15 or less or loses - win 1st, lose 2nd, -0.5u

The bet is +EV if the probability of case 2 or 3 occurring is > ~8%. From the analysis I've done, I think this is true.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

The Jets at -2.5 looks amazing to me. A few weeks ago they were -3 @Buffalo. The Bills have not played a single road game since. So either the Bills were the value pick of the year in that 1st game or there's a big overeaction to them playing some competetive ball at home.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Just wanted to post my teaser here:
Buffalo +9
San Francisco +9
Washington +23
(Risk 1.89u to win 3.41u)

I was trying to do as close to a Wong as possible, but Bodog won't let you tease the Cle/StL or the Ten/Oak game. Since their 3-teamers pay significantly better than their 2-teamers and the teaser already had some extra value from SF getting +3 when market value was +2 and Washington was getting a point better than market value as well, I decided to throw the Skins in there.

I think that the Redskins would be a good value play just betting them ATS and since it's so hard for an NFL team to win by more than three scores, I think there's actually some decent value in moving it across the 20 and 21. There isn't enough of a sample size to test it accurately since so few NFL teams are ever favored by more than 15.5, but I think with the spread this high, there's some value there.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

i just lost AA AI PF to KK for 400 dollars

so i'm gonna gamble it up

i have like 5 teasers

6 Team Teaser #91014066
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(206) Chicago Bears +½ Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (205) Detroit Lions
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL WEEK 8
(207) Indianapolis Colts -1 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(209) New York Giants vs. (210) Miami Dolphins Under 54 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(215) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (216) Cincinnati Bengals Over 42 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(221) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (222) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26 Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(226) New England Patriots -11 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins
(Teased 6.0 points)
Risk $50.00 to win $300.00

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

7 Team Teaser #91013933
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(205) Detroit Lions vs. (206) Chicago Bears Under 51 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL WEEK 8
(207) Indianapolis Colts -1 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(209) New York Giants vs. (210) Miami Dolphins Under 54 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(215) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (216) Cincinnati Bengals Over 42 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(217) Buffalo Bills vs. (218) New York Jets Under 44 Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(221) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (222) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26 Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(226) New England Patriots -11 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins
(Teased 6.0 points)
Risk $50.00 to win $500.00

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

5 Team Teaser #91013860
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(205) Detroit Lions vs. (206) Chicago Bears Under 52 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 7.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL WEEK 8
(207) Indianapolis Colts Pick Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers
(Teased 7.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(209) New York Giants -3 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (210) Miami Dolphins
(Teased 7.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(215) Pittsburgh Steelers +3 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (216) Cincinnati Bengals
(Teased 7.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(226) New England Patriots -10 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins
(Teased 7.0 points)
Risk $50.00 to win $175.00

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

5 Team Teaser #91013589
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL WEEK 8
(207) Indianapolis Colts -1 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(209) New York Giants -4 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (210) Miami Dolphins
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(215) Pittsburgh Steelers +2 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (216) Cincinnati Bengals
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(221) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (222) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26 Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(226) New England Patriots -11 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins
(Teased 6.0 points)
Risk $50.00 to win $225.00

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

so as you can see, all my bets count on the pats beating the redskins by 11, which i see easily happening at home for the pats

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

1 unit on each of 3 late games:

HOU+9
SF+2
WAS+16 (Hesitantly - I keep picking vs. NE and losing...)

As usual, I'll be tracking results on my website.

Good luck to all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Are the Redskins an enormous BSP pick? Line on bodog has moved from 17 to 15 1/2 over the last few hours

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

They had the line at 17 all yesterday and last night when everywhere else it was already down to 16 or 15.5, so they probably had a ton of money come in on Washington.

As far as BSP, I get the impression that everyone thinks NE will win, but that the line is pretty damn high and this may be the week NE fails to cover. Lots of mentions of "looking ahead to the Indy game".

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as BSP, I get the impression that everyone thinks NE will win, but that the line is pretty damn high and this may be the week NE fails to cover. Lots of mentions of "looking ahead to the Indy game".

[/ QUOTE ]

Understanding that theory, the Pats never seem to get caught in the "looking ahead" trap.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are the Redskins an enormous BSP pick? Line on bodog has moved from 17 to 15 1/2 over the last few hours

[/ QUOTE ]Please give me some of what you've been smoking...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?

[/ QUOTE ]
Im thinking just the opposite. Im betting SD will be very motivated/angry and go out there and play hard. 2U SD -9.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
WAS+16 (Hesitantly - I keep picking vs. NE and losing...)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sooooooo why do you keep betting against them? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e9.../bradymoss.jpg
All day baby!!!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are the Redskins an enormous BSP pick? Line on bodog has moved from 17 to 15 1/2 over the last few hours

[/ QUOTE ]Please give me some of what you've been smoking...

[/ QUOTE ]
? Talking about on Bodog, should have specified.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

non fiction your avatar actually happened to me in 5th grade


ouch

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are the Redskins an enormous BSP pick? Line on bodog has moved from 17 to 15 1/2 over the last few hours

[/ QUOTE ]

Bodog line remained higher than any other sportsbook(15.5 compared to most at 14.5)+ lines moving that fast aren't because of the public= public still riding the NE gravy train.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WAS+16 (Hesitantly - I keep picking vs. NE and losing...)

[/ QUOTE ]
Sooooooo why do you keep betting against them? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e9.../bradymoss.jpg
All day baby!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty funny moment between Moss and Brady after the first TD, Brady looked to be explaining why he ran it instead of hitting the open Moss, Randy was like, whatever man I don't want to hear it and he gave Brady/cameras a big, insincere thumbs up!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

wooot, NO is def on pace to cover -2.5 and pats are in good shape to cover o48, that would cover all my afternoon games and win me my parlay

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

2nd half NE -3.5 for 1 unit

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

I knew I should've bet NE.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

and there goes my parlay, +15u today, too bad im just starting and betting really small for my br:(

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Thank god Jacksonville was able to hold that up. That was a nailbiting last minute for my underdog parlay card