NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Villain: 10,5/6/2 (86)


Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $27.37
BB: $50
Hero (UTG): $72.35
CO: $49.75
BTN: $78.35

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.35 and is All-In</font>


If this is his c/r range: JJ+ and sets
And this is his "call the push" range: KK+ and sets

Then the EV of pushing is +$1,95

Is that too much variance?
Is my handreading too pessimistic?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Forgot that he may not call in the blinds with AA-KK, so then the EV is negative, because he have more % set-combinations.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Well you were at the table and therefore know the player better than I do, but you don't think he'd c/r combo draws like QJs, AdJd+? And you think he's folding an overpair to your shove? A lot of tight preflop players have a tendency to get married to their hand postflop, so I don't think you should immediately assume he's folding JJ and QQ to your shove.

I would play the hand the same way you did, though.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

He'll have combo draws here a ton as well

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

i'd never fold. if villlain plays AXs preflop then i'm happy getting it in on the flop. and if u think QQ and JJ are in his range then pushing flop is probably good. and the board is somewhat drawy outside of hte flush draw...

but i wouldn't hate calling. and pushing over safe turn cards.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

bombs away. you're ahead of all but a set and he can have QQ/JJ here. flop c/rs don't bother me much, esp on drawy flops, because u'll see alot of worse hands. turn c/r's however are a different ball game.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

I changed his ranges a bit:
__________________________________________________ ______
His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws.

And 30% consistent with: KK

He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds)
__________________________________________________ _______

EV = -$1,53

If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55

You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?).

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
I changed his ranges a bit:
__________________________________________________ ______
His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws.

And 30% consistent with: KK

He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds)
__________________________________________________ _______

EV = -$1,53

If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55

You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?).

[/ QUOTE ]

i think ur math is wrong.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Ok, I can test the calculation:


How many combinations do he hold?
KK............2
QQ............6
JJ............6
TT............3
88............3
44............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=25


How many combinations do he fold if i push?

JJ............6
TT............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=11


How often do he fold?

11/25 = 44% of the time


What does i win if he folds?

Pot+Bet+Raise = 16,25


What is the fold EV?

$16,25*44% = 7,15


What is my Equity if he calls?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.114% 46.11% 00.00% 7761 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 53.886% 53.89% 00.00% 9069 0.00 { KcKd, KcKh, QQ, TT, 88, 44 }


What do I win if he calls?

My cbet + pot + his stack = 55,25


The EV call(win)?

(1-Fold%)*55,25*0,46 = 0,56*55,25*0,46 = 14


What do i loose if he calls?

His stack - my cbet = 45


The EV call(loose)?

(1-Fold%)*45*0,54 = 0,56*45*0,54 = -13


Total EV:

EV Fold + EV Call(win) + EV Call(loose) = 7,15 + 14 - 13 = +8,15


It was close. I understand what the difference was now. I used the % number at the hold'em distribution window at pokerstove instead of counting combinations.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

And as I have experienced, this post killed the action at this topic...

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Anyways.. What would you done with KK in this spot?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

This is a somewhat read specific situation and becomes easier the more hands that you have played with vill. Has he three bet you or anyone at the table in the session? Does he flat call PF with any big hand that you have seen go to showdown?

These factors are important for the fact that a hand like QQ, KK and possibly JJ may three bet you pre flop and then take the lead on a drawish flop like this. 88 44 and usually TT may not take that same line and just flat call PF especially with this persons number. Also many of the larger drawing hands here such as AdKd KdQd QdJd play much the same way.

I don't like the push and pray on the flop. I call and re-evaluate the turn. This flop isn't the end of the line and there may still be some value to be had. You're deep enough to call and play a turn. IMHO a shove is -EV every time.

The Reese

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
And as I have experienced, this post killed the action at this topic...

[/ QUOTE ]

your math is still wrong because he doesn't fold AK or AQ diamonds. And u definitly shouldn't be pushing if u think he folds QQ and JJ.

Why would u push if he only calls u with better?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

fwiw, +$8 EV is huge.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

Honestly I might fold against this guy. 10/6/2 is basically set mining and a 2 af is ridiculously low for someone who only plays top 10% of their hands.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

I think hes calling range preflop isJ/10+
A/10+
When he re-raises you on flop ill put hem on virtualy same range,so with this range he have allmost 60% fold equity,i think he fold anything but JJ+ and set's,but even if he calls with A/Qd+-it is so small % of hes range,so we dont realy care(about 1% of hes range)
So 2 calculate best play you need 2 calculate EV and choose higher EV option

2 save you big lines of numbers ill put end numbers for each play

EV(for all-in)=+16.21bb
EV(on call)=+9.86bb

So all-in is clearly best move here

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And as I have experienced, this post killed the action at this topic...

[/ QUOTE ]

your math is still wrong because he doesn't fold AK or AQ diamonds. And u definitly shouldn't be pushing if u think he folds QQ and JJ.

Why would u push if he only calls u with better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold equity and induce mistakes if he calls with flushdraws or worse overpairs.

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think hes calling range preflop isJ/10+
A/10+
When he re-raises you on flop ill put hem on virtualy same range,so with this range he have allmost 60% fold equity,i think he fold anything but JJ+ and set's,but even if he calls with A/Qd+-it is so small % of hes range,so we dont realy care(about 1% of hes range)
So 2 calculate best play you need 2 calculate EV and choose higher EV option

2 save you big lines of numbers ill put end numbers for each play

EV(for all-in)=+16.21bb
EV(on call)=+9.86bb

So all-in is clearly best move here

[/ QUOTE ]

how did you calculated the EV(on call)?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think hes calling range preflop isJ/10+
A/10+
When he re-raises you on flop ill put hem on virtualy same range,so with this range he have allmost 60% fold equity,i think he fold anything but JJ+ and set's,but even if he calls with A/Qd+-it is so small % of hes range,so we dont realy care(about 1% of hes range)
So 2 calculate best play you need 2 calculate EV and choose higher EV option

2 save you big lines of numbers ill put end numbers for each play

EV(for all-in)=+16.21bb
EV(on call)=+9.86bb

So all-in is clearly best move here

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

u win 16.25bb 71.4% of the time and loose 6bb 28.6% of the time

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

what makes no sense,math?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
EV(on call)=+9.86bb

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did that come from?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

EV(on call)=(7.25+9)*0.714-0.286*6

71.4% its your equity
16.25bb pot u will win when u call
6bb you have 2 pay 4it

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
EV(on call)=(7.25+9)*0.714-0.286*6

71.4% its your equity
16.25bb pot u will win when u call
6bb you have 2 pay 4it

[/ QUOTE ]

But there are 2 more streets. Is it ever usual to look at a such call-number?

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

you can calculate ev till the showdown but this will take alot time and be mostly inacurate(because of implied odds evolving)

So usualy when calculating ev you will do it for each move or each street

Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
So usualy when calculating ev you will do it for each move or each street

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you have that from?

I only calculate EV on bluffs and (evt. multiple) actions that reach showdown like ie. semibluff push.