Week 3 NCAA Picks
 

Made the one thread for early discussion, here's a new one now that actual lines are out, anyway, here's what I'm on thus far:

Tennessee +8.5 at Florida (Risk 2.2u to win 2u)
Boston College at Georgia Tech -6.5 (Risk 2.2u to win 2u)
Notre Dame +10 at Michigan (Risk 1.65u to win 1.5u)
USC -8.5 at Nebraska (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)

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FTR, I also like UCF +20 and Alabama -3, but I don't anticipate those moving against me. I think I like UTEP +6.5 too, but that will need further analysis.

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Tennessee opened at 10.5 FWIW...almost hit it, but I just don't think Tennessee is very good. Ainge is a good player, but besides that...

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Alabama already -3.5.

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Yeah, I tried to get Tennessee at 9.5, but the stupid Bookmaker interface screwed me out of it. Not happy to see Alabama at -3.5 though, guess I shouldn't have waited there.

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Vandy -5.5
Arkansas +3.5
BC +7.5
Auburn -13.5
Washington +4

As always all picks guaranteed wrong or your money back.

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Adding:
Louisville -7 at Kentucky (Risk 1.26u to win 1.15u)

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Texas -20
Ohio State -4
Navy -5.5
TCU -8

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Temple +30.5
Colorado +4

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Definitely liking the LOU pick.
REALLY like ND +10.

Probably not liking the TEN pick. In agreement with Bills that TEN simply is not that good.

I need to get $$ on some other sites.
Waiting for Bodog to put up their crappy lines is killing me. I'm a sucky enough sports-bettor even without having to sacrifice all that value.

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BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit
GT -6.5
Troy +11
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit.

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I don't understand how Mich can be favored by 10.

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Louisville -6.5 @ Kentucky 2 Units
Georgia Tech -7 v Boston College 2 Units
Washington +4.5 v Ohio St 1 Unit
Illinois -12 v v Syracuse 1 Unit
Notre Dame +8.5 @ Michigan 1 Unit`
Florida -8 v Tennessee 2 Units
USC -10 v Nebraska 3 Units

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POTW: Utah +14 v UCLA bet 3.85u to win 3.5u

2-0 POTW this year
(G tech +3 @ ND: 33-0 G Tech)
(Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: 28-17 Mich St)

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I don't understand how Mich can be favored by 10.

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only thing i can think is that it's (finally) a different offense they're facing..ND runs a pro-set, while appst. and oregon ran that spread option with running qb's..

however, people must not have seen the 10+ missed tackles PER HALF over the last 8 quarters by mich's d..

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I am making very few picks this week but for sure I will be taking Michigan. I am simply waiting it out as Notre dame is getting most action on my betting site so far. -8 right now but am waiting see how far it drops down. I am probably only one on the board who will be picking the game this way.

So far picks I have put down are:
Washington +4
Bama -3
West virginia -16

all 1 unit plays.

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Purdue -19 1/2 3u
BYU -7 1u

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What do people think about Hawaii -17 v. UNLV?

I know Hawaii blows on the mainland, and that they underperformed last week while UNLV overperformed...basically Hawaii -17 has I'M A SQUAREDONK WHO LOVES PUBLIC ROAD FAVES written all over it but at the same time...that is not a lot of points for a Hawaii game, esp. when you consider UNLV was just 26.5 point dogs to Wisconsin at home...?

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just a note: Hawai'i is staying on the mainland all week

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basically Hawaii -17 has I'M A SQUAREDONK WHO LOVES PUBLIC ROAD FAVES written all over it

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P.S. That goes for Louisville this week too, you bunch of donks. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I wish I had cozied up to my Cats at 7.5 when I had the chance.

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WVU -16 1.1u to win 1u

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god, would anyone actually lay 10 points with michigan this week? that makes me wanna throw up

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god, would anyone actually lay 10 points with michigan this week? that makes me wanna throw up

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ND did have something like 10 straight 3 and outs last week, so I'm pretty sure the bookies just threw their hands in the air said [censored] it, then pulled a number out of nowhere.

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haha i guess so but my god....im a michigan fan too and i wouldnt lay 10 points to save my freaking soul

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Apparently, not very many people liked laying 10 on Michigan since the line got knocked down to 8 already. I feel very happy with the number I got on the Irish. Oh, I kinda like Hawaii this week too. The matchups work in their favor and they wouldn't have played anywhere near that bad last week if they'd been properly motivated. I think practicing in Houston away from any distractions should keep them focused too.

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BYU -6 for 1 unit
Huskies +4 for 1 unit
GT -6.5
Troy +11
USC -8.5
Miami -32.5 all 1 unit.

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Utah +14, 2u
ND +8, 1u
ArizSt -27.5, 1u. Dennis Erickson still likes to put a ton of points on the board, can't see them falling behind 14-0 [and they still covered] again.

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god, would anyone actually lay 10 points with michigan this week? that makes me wanna throw up

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ND did have something like 10 straight 3 and outs last week, so I'm pretty sure the bookies just threw their hands in the air said [censored] it, then pulled a number out of nowhere.

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Well, Notre Dame is 119th in rushing offense and total offense, 117th in scoring offense, 107th in passing offense, 102nd in passing efficiency, and 119th in sacks allowed. Michigan, meanwhile, is 109th in rushing defense, 95th in passing defense, 116th in pass efficiency defense, 108th in total defense, and 101st in scoring defense, so somnething has to give, but who knows what all that mediocrity adds up to when Notre Dame has the ball? On the other hand, Notre Dame is ALSO 100th on rush defense, and Michigan has Mike Hart, and that has to work out well for the Wolverines.

Of course if Michigan has to pass... it's the #100 pass efficiency NOW FEATURING A BACKUP QB, against the #32 pass efficiency defense. If Notre Dame just puts 9 in the box all game things could be pretty pathetic when Michigan has the ball too. I guess it'll come down to turnovers and special teams, but neither team has been impressive in either of those areas either *watches Penn State's punt return contend for the Pontiac Game Changing Performance, then remembers two blocked field goals by Appalachian State, then sees neither team is averaging more than 20 yards per kick return*

Crapshoot of the week?

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I don't know how anyone can bet the Notre Dame/ Michigan game
good luck figuring out either squad

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West virginia -16

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LOTW

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I don't know how anyone can bet the Notre Dame/ Michigan game
good luck figuring out either squad

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ND lost to two good teams, one on the road to a ranked team, in front of 110k fans that was a 7-pt game midway thru the 3rd Q; Mich lost to one 1-aa team, and one average P10 team, both at home and is missing their QB. Yet ND is getting more than a TD.

I'll take my chances.

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I'll take my chances

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Seems like the right side to me Naj(if there is one in this game). I'm surprised you missed the 10 though.

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Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking.

ND did actually put up something that vaguely resembled a battle against a pretty good Penn State team. Michigan doesn't even seem to be close and they're in a much worse state of disarray and crappy morale.
I think Weiss still has his team reasonably positive whereas it's my suspicion that Carr may have lost a lot of respect in that disasterous situation there.


For some reason I guess the people are buying into the idea that Notre Dame is absolutely awful. I really don't think they are quite as tragically bad as some seem to think.

Also for some reason people seem to think that Michigan still has something. And I really can't begin to figure out why after watching their defense.
Decent losses on the road to quality teams would be one thing. But they are losing at home and looking horrible doing it.

I'm all over ND on this one and can't imagine why anyone would want to take Michigan at -8 much less -10.
It just doesn't make sense to me.

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FTR, I do think Michigan has more talent and is the better of the two teams. However, there's no way they should be getting more than a TD at home. If I were to make a prediction, it would be something like Michigan 31-26.

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I don't know how anyone can bet the Notre Dame/ Michigan game
good luck figuring out either squad

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Seems like a solid reason to take the points.

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i thought Henne would play and the line would stay at 10 or higher, obvs. 9 doesn't really come into play anyway...10 could of course.

edit: got down at 9.5 at sia. Eff it, I'm unleashing the Dragon!

+280 or better ml looks tasty as well at this point. Had a small nugget on the Oregon ml last week and may try again.

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how anyone can bet the Notre Dame/ Michigan game
good luck figuring out either squad

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Seems like a solid reason to take the points.

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You agreed with me again.

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the NFL wong teaser thread last year made me wonder: does anyone go for wong teasers in college? if not, why?

I had teased Texas and Minnesota, as well as Nebraska and Auburn (ugh). Crossed the 7 and 3.

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More variance/scoring in college games due to less knowledge about the teams and a shorter play clock. If you could find games that crossed the 7 and 3 with totals of 40 or below between Top 40 teams, they'd probably work fine though.

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I don't care how good the defenses ND faced are...they still have negative rushing yards after two games. You'll have to make it pretty damn amazing for me to bet on a team with that

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TCU -8 looks like a very strong play this week, or am I missing something?