channeling my inner TWP
 

preflop is def not standard. open raiser is a 30/20/2 lag. i only had like 35 hands on the button, he ran 14/10/2 or something, so i assume he is taggish. bb is a total donk. spewtastic, eh?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($395.90)
Button ($600)
Hero ($791)
BB ($952.42)
UTG ($600)
MP ($1114.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $22</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $22, Hero (poster) calls $19, BB calls $16.

Flop: ($88) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $63</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $150</font>, Hero calls $769 (All-In)

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

Uhhmmm... I'm pretty sure you're misusing "TWP" here. IIRC that applies to PF only. Maybe I missed something???


jrbick

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uhhmmm... I'm pretty sure you're misusing "TWP" here. IIRC that applies to FPS only. Maybe I missed something???


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I like this. I like this because you are isolating vs the button. MP has to fold a bunch of hands here (JJ-99ish maybe) IMO because of the presence of the button. But since he figures to have like 77-99 here almost always and will have to lay it down.

Oh, and it helps with shania if you play a three like this- which I believe I would if I went for a check raise.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

um, why?

i understand you said its not standard for you to cold call preflop here, but why did you chose to flatcall preflop AND THEN decided to take this crazy ass line on the flop?

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

if u want to open up ur game do it logically. mp bets into 4 ppl, regardless it's a decent board to do so on...now button raises his lead, and u push over that with what will presumably no outs if called by button, although i could see you being somewhat live vs pfr. any idea if mp will even fold like jj here? i would think buttons range is weighted towards two overs and a fd type hands and 66-99 although i could see him having A3s/55. i just think the chance of them both folding is unlikely and when you do get called you are [censored]. this is going to be sick good for metagame tho if called, and i guess this is kinda dependent on if u think mp cb's dry here and if he folds jj type hands but i still don't think it's +ev.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

a few musings:

the sizing of buttons bet indicates 88-tt almost always imo.

my line is super strong.

i also dont do this without the Ac.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

dude, this is ugly. button likely has a strong hand, so i only consider this w/ some type of tell on him (timing tell or if i know he wont raise a monster on the flop). reraise pf. fold flop.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

Yea, I do this occasionally.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

lets give them hand ranges. what can they call with?

what will they put me on?

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

If they're good, it shouldn't matter whether they have 66 or QQ. But since they're likely not quite that good, I'm going to say that MP just has to tighten up his range and will almost always lay down QQ here IMO, simply because of the strength of your line and the button left to act.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

Preflop - I like a PSB, $90?

Flop - insane spew

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

you people don't like to bluff

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
you people don't like to bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

because nobody ever folds

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I thought it was horrible at first, but now I like it.

Gets a little thinner if bb is very very bad since now button could be raising just enough to get it hu with donk if he would call with anything. Rest of the time button never has a hand that can stand a push.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

phil:

You are representing no hand at all. I can't think of any hand that plays it the way you did except 46c. Now most TAGs at this level, myself included, will see this bet while playing 8 tables and just auto-muck - but if Villain stops to think about the hand and realizes you're representing no hand, you might get looked up with more than you think. Thing is, a bluff here is just so insane that I doubt you get looked up.

EDIT - oh, and I'd never post this hand. I can't help but think you're going to be doing this play with the nuts in the coming days, too. Thing is, it's such a rare spot that advertising here won't make a difference.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

ehhhh. too expensive, and i wouldn't be too surprised if a big pair looked you up. The massive shove smells a lot like a draw too.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

gross

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
If they're good, it shouldn't matter whether they have 66 or QQ. But since they're likely not quite that good, I'm going to say that MP just has to tighten up his range and will almost always lay down QQ here IMO, simply because of the strength of your line and the button left to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

keep in mind its tough making me fold, but I would insta-get all in with QQ. I would rationalize; bigger pairs wouldnt want a 4way pot, and since i open loose, definately rr/isolate, so if they're making a weird 3bet with AA/KK that they didnt reraise, good for them. as for 55, I think w/ a raiser and this board, EVERYONE just calls there, they give people with 2 outs (like me w/ an overpair) a chance to make a mistake, and they still will stack trips turn+. so, it leaves me fearing a 3, and since I only would credit A3 out there (for them calling pf, and it would have to be suited) I 'gamble' that they're semibluffing, pushing a weaker made hand, etc.

people fold overpairs to oeasily imo

the problems with OPs move is that its v possible he just shoved drawing dead (like trips or boat) even AA has him basically dead. so when he's called, he has no equity, and I just dont think people fold all that much

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

http://www.fuzzyco.com/bare/nyif/Images/big/balls.jpg

I think this should work a lot, but it sure is expensive when it fails.

A quick look at equity:
Assuming we only get called by very strong hands, our equity when called:

Board: 5c 3c 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 09.2424 % 08.95% 00.29% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 90.7576 % 90.47% 00.29% { KK+, 55, A3s, 43s }
I use A3s and 43s to represent all chances of a 3

If we add a few weaker hands, things still look pretty bad:
Board: 5c 3c 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.4976 % 17.35% 00.15% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 82.5024 % 82.35% 00.15% { TT+, 55, A3s, 43s }

Your equity drops even more if MP ends up calling, and then button feels priced in with a draw:
Board: 5c 3c 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 05.2946 % 05.16% 00.14% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 63.9649 % 63.76% 00.21% { KK+, 55, A3s, 43s }
Hand 3: 30.7404 % 30.64% 00.10% { KcJc, 6c4c }

Not to mention, there's still a guy left to act, which I will ignore, for simplicities sake.

Giving us a generous 12% equity:

We're betting $769 to win $300, laying 2.56:1.

When called, we lose:

88% * $769 = $677 when called by MP

and

88% * $579 = $510 when called by Button

Given that MP could easily be CBetting, and Button raised, and has more committed, we'll say button is twice as likely to call, giving us an average loss of:

($510*2 + $677)/3 = $566

when called.

Thus, the bluff needs to work:
$566 - 566X = 300X
$566 = 866X
X = 65%

If button is aggressive, but can make laydowns, I would say there's a decent chance that this would be profitable, but beware of donks, and people who have reason to be suspicious of you.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I like it but I wouldn't push all-in. I think a min-raise is better, or something. And why should this move only work preflop? The whole idea is that the LAG has a wide range, the TAG has a small overpair, and neither of them can call when you show sooooo much strength on a scary board. You called out of the blind, you can easily have 55 or a 3, so they have to fold. After all, who bluffs here????

BTW, strassa had a similar hand not too long ago on a QQx board, same action, I believe. He also pushed and other people also told him that they preferred a smaller raise, IIRC.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

i kinda like this, but I would like it a lot more if the board wasn't suited. They could put you on a flush draw or call with one. If they're batshit crazy maybe they call you with JJ and under, and then you have outs. There is a lot of money out there to steal, this move is gonna work a lot. Also when they call with KK or wake up with 55 or A3, you look like a [censored] and I can't imagine them wanting to fold a hand to you again.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, strassa had a similar hand not too long ago on a QQx board, same action, I believe. He also pushed and other people also told him that they preferred a smaller raise, IIRC.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, they told him to just fold, b/c a raise was NOT enough and the donk wouldn't lay down anything.

I think he was trying to bluff in spots that are just too stupid to bluff in (ie the raise was too small, not too big)

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

As I recall, the only question about the hand was that there was a real donk who would allegedly call there with an underpair. However, everyone folded, so who knows. In any case, I think the concept is sound. Relatively.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

how about this thought:

mp can't call with a non-nut flush draw.

if mp folds, button cant call with a flush draw (which is unlikely anyway given his raise size, i think).

i think a large part of my range here IS the NFD (and a3/43/53/63/yougetthepoint).


bobbo: i fully expect to get looked up by QQ+.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

yes, everyone always looks everyuone up with QQ+ no matter what the board/action. but the point is that no one has QQ+ here because BN would have re-raised and PFR is LAG.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I don't know why everyone assumes if MP calls button comes along with his draw, that would be a fold for me, probably even with the nut flush draw but certainly in this case where he can't have one. Anyways I think this play is reasonable, I really will play the nuts this way too sometimes.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

looks spewy to me.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

i kind of agree with TWP. this is a parlay, but not a particularly bad one. button probably doesn't have QQ+ (of which there are only 2 combinations) and might fold JJ-TT. MP has a wide opening range and he should be calling with only QQ+. also, you ahve the Ac so no one can call you with the nut flush draw. so i think you're taking this down pretty often. maybe 75% vs the button and 90% vs MP, which would be about breakeven under big jim's model, maybe slightly +EV. but i still wouldn't do it, considering that you're a huge variance magnet to begin with. but it's a good thought

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
yes, everyone always looks everyuone up with QQ+ no matter what the board/action. but the point is that no one has QQ+ here because BN would have re-raised and PFR is LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]


being precise, especially in off the table analyses, is incredibly important, and such, making statements like "he'll never have QQ+ because he's a lag" take you much farther away from being able to analyze it correctly. he will obviously have a big pair some of the time, and the button will sometimes have gotten tricky preflop, and could sometimes have 55 or 33. this is a parlay, and parlays are really hard to look at without applying some numbers, because they're usually far worse than one would think at first glance.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

fair enough. and obviously they could have big hands, or even call you with marginal hands. but i'm just saying that hand reading tells us that they have big hands here a pretty small amount of the time. that was my only point.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
fair enough. and obviously they could have big hands, or even call you with marginal hands. but i'm just saying that hand reading tells us that they have big hands here a pretty small amount of the time. that was my only point.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does tight player have when he raises the flop here?

I agree, original bettor calls this maybe 10% of the time. I just think tight player who raises the flop isnt exactly going to have 66 or 67c all THAT often (meaning 75%) I think he calls often enough to make this -EV.

for that reason, as you also suggest, a smaller raise would work

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I think he has a small overpair the vast majority of the time.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a small overpair the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you place button on a stronger hand if he just called? And since you assume button has a medium strong overpair, is that how you would play 66-TT?

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

I think BN has a medium strong some of the time he flat calls, but a flat call would indicate suited connectors that hit this flop more often. And yes, this is how I will play 66-TT a lot here in this spot. Very very few people will make OP's play here, lol.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

With the ace of clubs this aint so bad. I like.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

flyingstart,

i dont think that button's range is necessarily stronger if he flat calls the cbet, but its certainly alot wider, imo.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a small overpair the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


and something else that should be mentioned is we should have a flush draw a lot here. we also 100% don't have AA-QQ, and there's no way in hell we're shoving with JJ or TT here, so it's pretty obvious to a decent hand reader that we should have a big flush draw, so i wouldn't be shocked to see 66 call

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

this is a large part of the reason why we should not be pushing here. i think a min-raise or slightly more is a lot better. looks like we have trips and want BN to call with his 2 outs but for PFR to fold his potential flush draw.

Re: channeling my inner TWP
 

Nice analysis Jim