this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

live LA casino 5/5NL 500 effective stacks. SB is a station pre but folds on missed flops, BB just sat prob not getting out of line.
folded around to hero on button with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to 20, SB and BB call.
Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB c, BB c, hero cbet 45. SB folds, BB raises to 140. Villain has another 200 behind. I am approx. 85% sure he has better than 1 pair, possibly AQ. Can I fold this? What is more +EV, assuming he calls my push with AQ, AJ,and sets. A fold or push?

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

if ur read is that he has better than 1 pair all the time then my guess is that a fold is ok (i cant do the math sorry), altho i would always show this hand down to help my image since it is such a marginal spot

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

i kinda felt the same way and think it is close either fold or push, my guess is push is slightly more ev and good image producer, downside is a bit of variance...

anyone fold this? i mean this was a gross spot with stack sizes, getting the flop we hoped for

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

he doesnt have AA, maybe JJ but eh to that...and you have a 4, which leaves AJ or you are ahead

given this analysis + the dead money i shove...its not bad either way and when im kinda impartial EV wise i go aggressive

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this

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agreed, the guy seemed kinda of shocked that I went allin on "just a draw" (sorry Norman Chad). He had AJ which everyone has agreed was the most likely. I had decent equity (40%) and didnt really consider the image thing at the time but do agree it did pay off for me later on in the session.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

If your not getting it all in here you have to ask yourself why you are playing the hand to start with , as this is just the flop you wanted
Just shove it

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

why wouldn't you just call if you think he's got 2 pair or better. Seems to me a push here has no FE if he's really got 2 pair or better. and by calling, you have position and great implied odds to get the rest of his $$ if you hit (I assume 2 pair or better is not going to fold even if flush hits on turn/river)

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

normally, I would agree but against this player, and with these stack sizes, i.e. zero FE, with very poor pot odds. the situation isnt as good as it looks.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

Problem I see with the call is
1/ Are you getting paid off if you hit
2/ What are you doing if the turn blanks
Shoving eliminates these problems and as said before this is really the type of flop you wanted so if its me im getting it in

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

Yeah, i think a call is pointless. Lets say we call.
scenario 1) Turn is blank. 100% of the time villain pushes, and we must call.
scenario 2) Turn is a diamond or a 4. He checks and we push, and villain calls btwn 85%-100 of the time.

Concl. we get no image benefit for playing the hand aggressive and we take a small chance we dont get paid when we hit.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

I check this flop a reasonable %age of the time with hands such as this.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I check this flop a reasonable %age of the time with hands such as this.

[/ QUOTE ]

because....?

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

one other thing is imo its worth it 2 play a high variance game in close spots in live games to build a stack

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
If your not getting it all in here you have to ask yourself why you are playing the hand to start with , as this is just the flop you wanted
Just shove it

[/ QUOTE ]

people keep using this "logic" and it's so completely retarded and wrong, i'm too exasperated to explain why (seriously, figure it out on your own)

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

is there any way your opponent is making a move or trapping with a marginal hand that he perceives as best because he thinks you are weak or on some sort of laggy play? otherwise, not much of an overlay to a shove since villain has committed himself with check-raise and i don't think a decent ace folds to a shove on that board. is there anything wrong with smooth-calling? you are getting 2 to 1 to call, and if you call and hit, with only 200 left your opponent is already committed, so you have 4 to 1 on the call including implied odds and you are 3 to 1 to hit on the next card assuming all your outs are good. if you don't think your two pair or trips are good, then is there anything wrong with folding since without the extra outs or any fold equity you just don't have to odds to continue? you've only committed 65 so far.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

Thanks for your input must read all of your replies so helpfull .
I said this is how I would play it fine you have a different way explain dont just "blah blah blah " I dont get why you even bother posting if thats all you have to say

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

it really looks like in this situation shoving is a break-even play - perhaps better than losing the 65 already invested, but if you are concerned at all with variance, you might prefer to lose the 65

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

Against htis villain, there was zero FE, and I knew that at the time. I was very sure he ahd AJ and I still beleive with the support of others replies (thank you) that a shove is marginally better than a fold and a call is bad for the reasons I wrote earlier. One poster suggested a check on the flop. Although in this particualr case it would have actaully been best, overall this is bad. Raising SC's in position is +EV two ways, either make the best hand or bluff better hands out. In most cases villain will either fold to our cbet and then check the river giving us some FE or a chance for a free card, or they will fold to the cbet. It just so happened that Villian likely hit this flop hard as did we and the stack sizes were akward that the choice between fold and push was very close. A call would be a good move if villain was deeper.

Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
 

With your opponents less-then-full stack, and this flop, just get it in. It's close EV-wise, but you play 5d4d for flops like this, and he probably has a bare Ace more often then you think. Calling is terrible.