NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

OK, in sticking with my plan, let's have a new thread for discussing the real lines the sportsbooks have put out that are bettable.

The following lines appear to have some value to me:

Tennessee +7.5- LSU hasn't beaten a team with a winning record by this many points since they played Va. Tech in Week 2. Are they really going to pick the week after they got eliminated from the national championship race for their best performance since September?

Washington +12: Sagarin has Hawaii 3.5 points better on a neutral field. This looks like a ton of points for a Hawaii team that's only had one good game this year.

I also find the BC line kind of strange. There's no adjustment for BC's road win over VT a month and a half ago? Really? I'm not sure where the value is, but I was quite surprised to see this line over a field goal.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I agree with you on Washington and BC. Considering Pitt, although waiting for a better number.

Also, Rutgers +3.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I was actually thinking that it might be a good plan to bet WVU early, just looking for a middle. I bet we see at least 28.5 by gametime and it could go as high as 30.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Ehhh...Washington State's QB just went 27/40, 399 yds, 5 TD against the Washington pass defense...that cannot bode well.

Also, motivational factors favor Hawaii greatly. That and the extra special HFA and I may just sit this one out.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ehhh...Washington State's QB just went 27/40, 399 yds, 5 TD against the Washington pass defense...that cannot bode well.

Also, motivational factors favor Hawaii greatly. That and the extra special HFA and I may just sit this one out.

[/ QUOTE ]

jake locker seems to have slowed down alot.... but TB (rankin??) was picking up slack.

i like hawaii huge in this game.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Iggy -

Nice job on calling the WVU line from the other thread, you were right on the money (the problem with your dual thread idea, by the way, is I could just make this comment in the other thread but then it perpetuates the other thread and pretty soon we have people posting current line info into it.)

I like your Tennessee pick a lot. I don't like Washington. Hawaii looked pretty decent last week, this week is unlikely to produce a letdown effect, Washington got beat in its rivalry with WSU, the team has nothing to play for and Willingham has every incentive to keep Locker healthy (which means perhaps not playing him for the whole game.) Unless you think Willingham has to win this one to keep from getting fired, and I don't think the outcome matters much one way or the other.

The VT line seems right, and I think taking VT here would be a good plan. I'd put more weight on the 58 minutes when VT dominated then the 2 where BC made a last-ditch comeback.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

What are the chances of this avatar parlay hitting?

Either:

1) Oklahoma beats Mizzou

or

2) Two of three of the three following teams win:
V Tech beats BC
Arizona beats Arizona State
Washington beats Hawaii

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Anybody else think UCLA may be a value at 18.5 in a rivalry game?

I also lean Arizona State at -7. I think Arizona may be getting too much credit for their flukefest Oregon victory.

Man I miss midseason when there were more and bigger values available.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the 2nd one for you - around 36%.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the 2nd one for you - around 36%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome cool thanks!

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the 2nd one for you - around 36%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you feed stray cats too?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the 2nd one for you - around 36%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you feed stray cats too?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The Vols did yesterday

HELLLOOOOOO

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I win the parlay if either 1 OR 2 hits.

So 1 by itself is >50% to hit.
What % of the time will #2 be true?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the 2nd one for you - around 36%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you feed stray cats too?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The Vols did yesterday

HELLLOOOOOO

[/ QUOTE ]

uncalled for [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

rofl_copter

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, 1 is far superior. Oklahoma is a fav over Mizzou and rightly so.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, we actually agree on something. i gotta make an appointment with a proctologist, quick.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I have not had a chance to see much of Oklahoma or Mizzou...but I would think the level of talent would be far superior at Ok...

I was loving OK-3 but wanted to hear some thoughts of people who have actually watched some games....

I also like Va Tech as I have watched both teams a few times and have never been impressed by BC...and everyone on here tells me Va Tech is better than UGA...and UGA would wipe the floor with BC.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I put 2 units on Tennessee +7.5 as my only play so far. I expect to add 2-3 more games and some totals.

If you look at the UT/LSU game without any of the emotional factors (Miles ----> Michigan, LSU heartbreak, UT momentum/rallying underdogs) then I think LSU beats Tennessee by 10+.

But how much do these intangible things matter? How much are they worth in handicapping? I have no idea, but I think enough for Tennessee to cover and possibly win.

LSU's been a bit suspect in deep coverage, but Tennessee doesn't throw a lot of deep stuff. Sometimes we do, but when we do, it's usually a sideline fly pattern. Very rarely this year have we thrown a deep post, much less for a completion.

One player that I think could make a difference is the elder Cottam brother. He was our #1 TE (Chris Brown is our #1 H-Back) before he broke his wrist. He was denied a 6th year, so he returned against Kentucky and had a huge catch and run that showed why he was our #1 TE. He's 6'8", 270 and runs a 4.6. He's a gazelle. He could be a big playmaker.

Arian Foster had a rough 2006, but he shined against LSU's better defense last year. Hardesty (#2 RB) might be limited, and our #3 is freshman Lennor Creer (who is the most promising RB I've seen at UT since Travis Henry, but he's young).

LSU has only played a couple of OLs as good as UT's - Florida and Arkansas, and I'm not sure where UT ranks in those 3.

Ainge didn't play more than 6 snaps against LSU last year on his bum ankle. He had a disastrous game in 2005 against them.

What else? Nobody in our secondary can cover Doucet. Eric Berry is more athletic, but a frosh.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have not had a chance to see much of Oklahoma or Mizzou...but I would think the level of talent would be far superior at Ok...

I was loving OK-3 but wanted to hear some thoughts of people who have actually watched some games....

I also like Va Tech as I have watched both teams a few times and have never been impressed by BC...and everyone on here tells me Va Tech is better than UGA...and UGA would wipe the floor with BC.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't put any money on OU. MU was missing Temple during the OU game. OU is going to be missing Murray and possibly their leading sack guy, Auston English.

MU offense > OU offense. OU defense > MU defense.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

can we lock one of these threads? Why are 2 necessary?

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I kindof want to bet a unit on Mizz just so if they keep tOSU out of the National Championship I at least made some cash. I'd almost be willing to pay a unit for the Buckeyes to play for the Championship.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I love Washington
I'll be betting them straight up to win

i think the world forgot Hawai'i sucks
seriously
they played 3 mediocre BCS teams last year
lost @ Bama by 7
won v Purdue by 7
lost v Oregon St by 7 IIRC

their offense has another year, but their defense is worse

remember, the Purdue D v the pass last year was just dreadful, Purdue had no motivation, Purdue's coaches were actively against the game, yet the Boilers had to go out of their way to lose

Washington dominated that so called other WAC power Boise early this year

Boise's fluke, trick play comeback v Oklahoma last year seems to have pulled the hood over everyone about how much the WAC blows

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

like the Tennessee pick as well

LSU's defense hasn't been the same since Auburn took the cheap shots on Dorsey

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Miami/CMU line is moving to 3 which still blows me away.
This is a pseudo-homefield advantage for CMU. They will easily have a majority of the fan support there and in spite of their recent struggles I still think they're better than 3 points here.
Miami is so inconsistent.

I was liking Miami back when I thought CMU was goping to receive too much credit and the line was going to be huge.

But it looks like a lot of bettors must have been jumping on Miami at +3.5 to move it down to 3 and that just seems so suprising to me.


I was starting to get into myturn's camp on WAS but changed my mind.
They look so much better at home and I thought the game vs. BSU was impressive.
I try to fall back on all their close wins against conference teams that they supposedly should be blowing away. But then a team like Fresno St knocks off KSU which isn't exactly the biggest upset in the universe but it still makes you wonder if perhaps the upper teams in the WAC aren't quite so incredibly crappy and instead are only mildly crappy.

WAS isn't really playing for anything and I can see the possibility of them laying back a little bit and just enjoying their HAW vacation and not being quite as focused on this game. Last trip for the seniors...etc etc.

Their defense isn't exactly the most impressive in the world although it's a bit better lately. But 5 games this year allowing 40+ points doesn't exactly bode well for their chances of stopping the HAW attack.
Whereas HAW has all the motivation in the world of an unbeaten season and a possible BCS bowl bid.

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whereas HAW has all the motivation in the world of an unbeaten season and a possible BCS bowl bid.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think these are good arguments for why Hawaii will win, but don't have much bearing on whether they'll cover -14.

The only three teams who have beaten UW by more than 2 TDs this season are tOSU, Oregon, and Arizona State -- all of whom were rated as top 5ish teams at one point or another. Whereas Hawaii has had trouble blowing out WAC mediocrities on several occasions.

Which isn't to say that UW +14 is a LOCKZ but the line does baffle me somewhat.

(then again, my experience handicapping NCAAF is nonexistent)

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Washington dominated that so called other WAC power Boise early this year

[/ QUOTE ]

this is wrong. it was the all too familiar story of turn overs and penalties repeated again, this time by boise.

to repeat: watching the game between boise and hawaii, i was struck by the intensity and precision of both teams. if hawaii duplicates that intensity and execution against washington, they will win. as to cover, who knows?

Re: NCAAF Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Def thinking about going with Wash now and some to win.