Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

These are actual hands from games that I was in. I’m trying to learn to count outs. I would appreciate it if someone could look at the below samples and show me what the outs are and how you came up with them... pretty basic stuff but I'm having a hard time seeing the right outs.
Thanks..

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h]

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As]

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh]
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h]

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d]

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

Hand #1 - I think you may be drawing dead here. Depending on how many players are in the pot, and previous betting actions and reads, it's likely your 5 of hearts is no good anyway, should a river heart hit. Assuming you have the best heart in the hand, you'd have 9 outs. There are 13 hearts in the deck, minus the 4 you need for a flush already seen, gives you 9 more suited hearts to come. Most people will obviously adjust this number because the likelihood NOBODY else had a heart and folded somewhere along the line is unlikely. I'm going to say you've got ~7 outs, maybe drawing dead though.

Hand #2 - Again, you can't just count outs based on hands like this. You need betting action and reads to put your opponents on a hand. Assuming he doesn't have a king here, you don't need to be drawing to anything. You're ahead. If he has a king, you're drawing to 3 aces. Maybe 2 for adjustments.

Hand #3 - Again, betting action and reads. Assuming no king, you're probably ahead and having opponents are drawing/counting outs to you. Assuming he has a king, you're drawing to 6 outs. 3 jacks and 3 8's still left in the deck to make a better hand than a pair of kings.

Hand #4 - This one is a little easier, but still could use betting action and reads. Assuming opponent has a queen, you're drawing to 6 outs again. 3 2's and 3 kings left in the deck. Assuming opponent has a 5, you're drawing dead (0 outs), more or less, get out of this hand before the river hits.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

(Keep in mind I am relatively new, so this may not be correct.)

Hand #1

FLOP - You're 4.2% to hit that 3-flush by the river. When calling bets, keep in mind you'll need to see the river in order for the percentage to be viable.

TURN - You have 9 outs (you see 3 hearts on the board, plus one in your hand, and with 13 cards per suit, there are nine left). This amounts to about 20% to hit on the river.

Hand #2

FLOP - There is no low straight draw for you here, so I assume you'll have found weakness and be looking to pair either your two or your ace on the turn. You have 6 outs or 13% to hit on the turn, and by the river about 24%.

TURN - You have 2 outs to hit your ace (4.4%) and 3 outs for your two (7%).

Here's the resource I used to determine this, see if you can't figure out the last two.

http://www.pokerupdate.com/pokerodds.htm

[I think a fairly simple rule is that if you want to hit by the river from the flop you multiply your outs by 4 and add 2 and that is your percentage, and if you want to hit by the turn from the flop you multiply your outs by 2 and add 2 for your percentage.]

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

This is what I came up with for the correct answers to COUNTING OUTS.
If anyone sees anything wrong please let me know.
Look forward to the replies… I’m still learning….

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

Hand #1 flop - You cannot assume you have six outs there, being fives and sevens. Most likely if you're in the hand with action, someone is going to have a king or jack. That is why I initially said I'd need to see betting action and/or reads to see if X is really an out.

Hand #3 turn - Why do you go from 5 to 2? Is two pair (an 8) no good now? Why did you get this conclusion? I would say you're 5 outs stay the same from flop to turn here.

Hand #4 turn - 5 to 2 outs again. If you think your opponent has a 5, you're drawing dead to no outs, no matter the card. If you think he has a queen, then you have 5 outs - 2 2's and 3 kings. I don't see why you would adjust to 2 deuces, because a deuce wouldn't help you in anyway really unless you thought he had a queen. If he has a queen, then a king would be fine.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

JSmith2007
Thanks for responding.. I’ll try to show you my reasoning and if I’m wrong somewhere please let me know what the correct answer should be. I’m looking at COUNTING OUTS as to what cards would make my hand the “best hand”. If I’m going about this all the wrong way

Remember this exercise is just to learn how to COUNT OUTS… assume everyone just limps for the below mentioned hands…

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up. With four hearts out, the best hand I can make is 5 high flush

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces I have an OVERCARD so the best hand I can make is Trip A’s… hence 3 outs.
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces. The best hand I can make here is A’s full… hence 2 outs

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights. The best hand I can make is Trip J’s or Pair of 8’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks… The best hand I can make is Trips J’s… hence two outs

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s or Pair of K’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s, although I could catch a K on the River, so should TOTAL OUTS still be 5?

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're thinking about outs the wrong way. An out should be a card that, if it falls, makes your hand the best hand. If a 5 or a 7 falls on the turn, it's still very unlikely that you have the best hand. You need to hit one of 6 cards on both the turn AND river to make the best hand. This doesn't count as having 6 outs on the flop. I'd consider it drawing nearly dead.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kd Jh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Ah 960 96.97 30 3.03 0 0.00 0.970
7s 5h 30 3.03 960 96.97 0 0.00 0.030

An example of having 6 outs is if you hold AK on a T52 flop, and you think your opponent has JT. There, any ace or king makes your hand the best, so you have 6 outs - a 25% chance to win if you were to go all-in of the flop.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s Td 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 247 24.95 743 75.05 0 0.00 0.249
Ts Jh 743 75.05 247 24.95 0 0.00 0.751

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

Could someone tell me what the odds are for turning two-pair on the flop with any two cards (pp not included). Ive tried to calculate but ends up with numbers indicating poorer odds than pp to 3 of a kind? This cannot be the case, can it?

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I think you're thinking about outs the wrong way. An out should be a card that, if it falls, makes your hand the best hand. If a 5 or a 7 falls on the turn, it's still very unlikely that you have the best hand. You need to hit one of 6 cards on both the turn AND river to make the best hand. This doesn't count as having 6 outs on the flop. I'd consider it drawing nearly dead.

I agree that the hand is drawing dead, the only way that it could win would be to catch the remaining 5's/7's.. but how would you count the outs?... or does counting outs only apply to hands that you would normally play?

If I the hand is Kc9s.... now you count your outs?

I know I'm doing something wrong, but don't know what it is... I'm still learning...

Thanks for the reply....

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone tell me what the odds are for turning two-pair on the flop with any two cards (pp not included). Ive tried to calculate but ends up with numbers indicating poorer odds than pp to 3 of a kind? This cannot be the case, can it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Odds of flopping 2 pair when you have 2 unpaired cards is close to 50 to 1. Odds of flopping a set (3 of a kind when you have a pocket pair) is approximately 7.5 to 1.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the hand is drawing dead, the only way that it could win would be to catch the remaining 5's/7's.. but how would you count the outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming 2 pair is good for the win, you have to catch 2 of the six remaining 5s and 7s... on the turn there are 47 unseen cards, 6 of which will give you a redraw to 2 pair or trips (41 cards will leave you drawing dead if someone has a pair higher than 7s):

(47 - 41) / 47 = 12.8% or about 6.8 to 1.

Then you have to hit one of the remaining five 7s or 5s on the river out of 46 unseen cards:

(46 - 41) / 46 = 10.9% or about 8.2 to 1.

Now you have to multiply the odds of BOTH of those events happening:

.128 * .109 = 1.4% or about 70 to 1, which makes it worth less than a 1 outer.

You also have a backdoor two gap straight draw that's also worth less than 1 out.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Odds of flopping 2 pair when you have 2 unpaired cards is close to 50 to 1. Odds of flopping a set (3 of a kind when you have a pocket pair) is approximately 7.5 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, it sure seems to happen alot... usually after i've folded (but i'm not one of those "i had 3-8" guys.... it's just that you notice that flop in particular)

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]

wow, it sure seems to happen alot... usually after i've folded (but i'm not one of those "i had 3-8" guys.... it's just that you notice that flop in particular)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've folded then the odds of flopping 2 pair drop to around 5 to 1... bizzarre phenomenon.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
JSmith2007
Thanks for responding.. I’ll try to show you my reasoning and if I’m wrong somewhere please let me know what the correct answer should be. I’m looking at COUNTING OUTS as to what cards would make my hand the “best hand ”. If I’m going about this all the wrong way

Remember this exercise is just to learn how to COUNT OUTS… assume everyone just limps for the below mentioned hands…

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up. With four hearts out, the best hand I can make is 5 high flush

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">You're opponents could easily have a pair of Kings or Jacks or possibly already have two pair. A set cannot be ruled out. I would not count hitting just one 5 or 7 as an out. On the turn you have 9 outs to a flush but as you already mentioned it might not be good.

I would say the best you could do from the flop is to go runner runner, either 5,5 or 7,7. This is probably less than a 5% chance of happening. Just hitting either a 5 or 7 on the turn is about 12% or 7:1 odds. And it still will not be best if a player had pocket jacks or kings. In other words, you cannot make the nuts. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces I have an OVERCARD so the best hand I can make is Trip A’s… hence 3 outs.
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces. The best hand I can make here is A’s full… hence 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">Once again you could be way behind to a hand like A,10 or K,J. Hitting the Ace on the turn is no help, with the exception that it gives you 2 outs on the river. This has about a 5% chance of happening, or odds of about 19:1 (I didn't confirm this number, so I might be off)</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights. The best hand I can make is Trip J’s or Pair of 8’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks… The best hand I can make is Trips J’s… hence two outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">I would not count the 8's on the flop. It will not give you the best hand. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s or Pair of K’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s, although I could catch a K on the River, so should TOTAL OUTS still be 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">On the flop there is only one reason I would count the Kings. Because you already hit your 2. This gives you two pair. But as you so aptly demonstrated with your turn card thisis easily counterfitted. The 5 pairing now gives any other player with a king two pair also. So with the queen on the board the best you can do is tie. So on the turn I wouldn't count the kings as full outs. hitting a 2 is also problematic as it gives you a full house, 2's over 5's, but if another player has a 5 he has a better full house, 5's over 2's </font>

When counting outs you want to count cards cards that if you hit them with the next card they most likely give you the best hand. If you need to hit a card on both the turn and river you cannot count this as 1 out. he odds of having to hit a specific range of cards back to back drastically reduces the chance of the event actually happening.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you've folded then the odds of flopping 2 pair drop to around 5 to 1... bizzarre phenomenon.

[/ QUOTE ]

marginally related to this, but a big pet peeve of mine is when guys say "i lost with two pair" and one of the pairs was on the board. yes, you had two pair, but everyone in the hand had one...

on a completely serious note, i sometimes still have troubles with paired boards or potential for paired board to kill your "unique" two pair.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

had troubles highlighting earlier text.

anyhow, this is like vietnam flashbacks of my early limit "reading book" days... but i thought miller/sklansky (????) considered a back door cover as one out. same with straight draw, although i can't remember the particulars on quality of draw and made flush/straight... but i do remember 1 out for a back door straight (assume a good straight and OE) and 1 out for a back door flush (want it to be 3 flush on board or you hold A or K of the suit).... not sure about this though.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]


on a completely serious note, i sometimes still have troubles with paired boards or potential for paired board to kill your "unique" two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any time there are board cards higher than your "low" pair you're in trouble of being counterfitted.

In the example with K,2 if the flop is K,5,2,. Even though you flopped two pair if a 5 comes on the turn your pair of 2's is no good. a non 2,5,K turn puts another card on the board that could cancel out your 2's. So 3 outs to couterfit on the turn, 6 on the river. And once your counterfitted you'll then be playing the other board card (in this example since the 2 is so low) so your best hope is a tie. Say the final baord is K,5,2,3,3. You now have 2 pair kings and threes with the 5 for a kicker. Any opponent with a K,x where x is higher than 5 beats you.

So it's not only important to realize how you can get counterfitted but what the other board cards are too. These can also effect your hand. Compare the above example with this board - K,5,2,5,Q. You have two pair, kings and 5's with a queen kicker. If another player has K,x, assuming x isn't another 5,2 or queen, it has to be specifically an Ace for you to lose. Before you could lose to a 6,7,8,9,T,J,Q or A

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

smallfry, thanks.. sexton on wpt is always giving all these cards for a tie or loss on the river and it can frazzle your mind. i've improved alot on these issues though.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h]

[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much have no outs on either street (you expect to beat a 4h or 2h on the turn?) and probably shouldn't have seen a flop in the first place. There was DEFINATELY no reason to continue after the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As]

[/ QUOTE ]

Both streets, I doubt your outs were any good. Again, treat as if you had none, since you're most likely playing for half a pot at BEST

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh]
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- Technically 5 outs, but I'd treat as four depending on the players involved.
Turn- 3 outs... unless someone is playing your first hand

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- 5 outs
Turn- Same, unless a raising war breaks out.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

wow, that 50 to 1 of hitting two pairs really makes me think about playing out of the small blind, although i'm already pretty tight anyway. and two low pairs have risk of counterfeiting.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
had troubles highlighting earlier text.

anyhow, this is like vietnam flashbacks of my early limit "reading book" days... but i thought miller/sklansky (????) considered a back door cover as one out. same with straight draw, although i can't remember the particulars on quality of draw and made flush/straight... but i do remember 1 out for a back door straight (assume a good straight and OE) and 1 out for a back door flush (want it to be 3 flush on board or you hold A or K of the suit).... not sure about this though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is in SSHE and is worth a read. My copy is in a box in storage right now, so I can't look up the exact figures, but what's quoted above sounds about right.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
If I the hand is Kc9s.... now you count your outs?

I know I'm doing something wrong, but don't know what it is... I'm still learning...

Thanks for the reply....

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, now I've got Kc7s and I want to count my outs (I changed it to K7 to avoid runner-runner straight possibilities). So the important question is - What do I think my opponent has?

If he's got AA, then I've got 5 outs - 2 remaining kings and 3 remaining sevens.
If he's got AK, then I've only got 3 outs - the 3 remaining sevens. AhKh drops you down to 2 outs, since the 7h gives your opponent a flush (but would give you a draw to a full house)
If he's got KJ, I'm drawing nearly dead, to running sevens.
If he's got QQ, I don't need to count outs, just avoid the remaining two queens.
If he's got JJ, I'm [censored] unless I catch perfect-perfect for quad kings.

So now you have to look at the preflop and flop action, decide what his range of possible holdings is, and from that you can figure out how many outs you probably have. It's not exact.

Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......
 

[ QUOTE ]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]

OK, now I've got Kc7s and I want to count my outs

If he's got AK, then I've only got 3 outs - the 3 remaining sevens. AhKh drops you down to 2 outs, since the 7h gives your opponent a flush (but would give you a draw to a full house)

If he's got JJ, I'm [censored] unless I catch perfect-perfect for quad kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

In all of these scenarios,you're leaving out the runner full houses that you can hit to tie or win the hand. Very small possibility, but as long as you're doing practice...