NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I think ideally, it makes sense to have one thread for before the lines come out and one thread for when they actually do. Let's post opening guesses here and then people's actual early bets in the other thread.

Pitt @ West Virginia -28
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech -1.5
Oklahoma -3 vs. Missouri
Tennessee vs. LSU -6
UCLA @ USC -11
Oregon State -4 @ Oregon
Washington @ Hawaii -9

So that about covers it for the significant games. Anything look off? Really hard to figure the Pac-Ten lines, but I can't imagine that anything else is off by more than a couple points.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

FAU @ Troy -11.5
Oregon State @ Oregon + 8
Oklahoma -4 vs. Missouri
Tennessee vs. LSU -5
Arizona +5.5 @ Arizona State

I'm not positive about the Arizona line, but I think it's probably pretty close. I'm pretty sure the OSU/Oregon line will be over a touchdown. Yes, the home team in the civil war has won umpteenth times in a row but the Ducks have completely shut down. The few uninjured players we have do not square with our offensive scheme. We've got fans seriously talking about declining a bowl bid, and after watching that garbage game against UCLA I can't blame them.

Oh, and Iggy, I think your Pitt/WV line is off by 8 or so. No way is the line that big.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Iggy,

Don't forget Cal @ Stanford.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

WVU looks a bit high too... good chance they win by that much, but they start slowly or pitt scores first touchdown, then it's hard to hit. garbage time too.

did hawaii wrap up BCS bid with boise win? or, did that presume they beat wash?..... i'd say hawaii by 10, and i'd be all over that line (on H)

oklahoma -2... although i don't know where game is (does it matter though? other than it's neutral)....

i agree oregon is basically lost... take the under on that one

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Here's what Pinny has so far:

VaTech -3.5
LSU -7
Oklahoma -3.5

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I think you might see LSU -9 or -10, honestly.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

You really think the Pitt/WVU line will be smaller than the UConn/WVU line? I don't see that at all.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You really think the Pitt/WVU line will be smaller than the UConn/WVU line? I don't see that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have to check, but isn't uconn >> pitt... although i guess WVU made a statement and will just continue??

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you might see LSU -9 or -10, honestly.

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i'm no expert but i don't see it going that high. LSU seems to have alot of close games and its strength seems to be D... tons of people were really down on TN before KY game, but i don't know the team that well (although i gather that you do)

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Arizona State -8

I think

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's what Pinny has so far:

VaTech -3.5
LSU -7
Oklahoma -3.5

[/ QUOTE ]

1u Missou +3.5, will add

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and Iggy, I think your Pitt/WV line is off by 8 or so. No way is the line that big.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way that line will be WVU -20.

Sportsbook had that as a Game of the Year this season. Two weeks ago it was WVU -24.5. Last week it was -25. In the interim, UCONN @ WVU was bet up to -21 and WVU blew them out and covered easily. Pitt lost (including against the spread) at home against South Florida.

There is no way this line will open anywhere close to -20. WVU -28 sounds about right. I could see it as low as -26 and as high as -30.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
1u Missou +3.5, will add

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that bet (probably means you will lose handily).

It looks like it has already been bet down to -3.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arizona State -8

I think

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I'll take Arizona for the farm, Alex. That's probably a reasonable line, but I'm certainly betting Arizona if I get more than a TD.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You really think the Pitt/WVU line will be smaller than the UConn/WVU line? I don't see that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have to check, but isn't uconn >> pitt... although i guess WVU made a statement and will just continue??

[/ QUOTE ]



that's exactly what I thought.
The line vs. UConn was 21...and WV blew that WAY out of the water.
UConn is considered to be much better than Pitt. And WV is now extra excited that they are back in the championship mix following LSU's loss.

I think WV -28 feels right for this one.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I'm guessing CMU -10 or so in the MAC championship and I think there is value on the Miami side.

Miami, Ohio has been looking a bit weak lately.
Bad 7-0 win vs. AKR on national TV and then blowing a 17-7 halftime lead at Ohio by surrendering 21 3rd Q points to finish the season 6-6.
But Miami seemed to dominate every aspect of the game except a few too many penalties and failure to finish their drives instead having to settle for 5 FG's.
That's something of a positive too fwiw since their kicking game had been questionable this year.

CMU will have most of the fan support in Detroit where they beat Ohio 31-10 in the very same championship game last year.
But I don't think they are as good as they were last year and they have definitely been almost quietly struggling down the stretch.

They lost to EMU at home and the Eagles just aren't that good.
Then they had a fairly miraculous comeback to squeak by with a win at AKR by scoring 2 TD's in the last 6 mins.

On the other side, while Miami definitely isn't a great team I think there is value with them.
They also have the additional incentive of needing to win this game to be bowl-eligible.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Rutgers +3

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

cmu -3.5, not quite 10....

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1u Missou +3.5, will add

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that bet (probably means you will lose handily).

It looks like it has already been bet down to -3.

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added 1u at +3.
At least we're still ahead of DrBob this year, amirite?

Thank god for futures: PSU, LSU, UCLA, Boise, Miami, ND, Okla, etc, all under. Many thanks to all who pointed out the value in some of those before I even looked.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

wow.
well color me surprised.
I really thought Miami would be viewed as ultra-crappy and CMU as better than they really are.

Obviously at 3.5 I'm thinking there's value with CMU.
They will practically have a home-field advantage in this one.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I think Washington has value at +13 although I am getting real tired of betting against Hawaii on the island...

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

Wash is pretty god awful wo Locker

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I will agree that 13 will be a tough cover for Hawaii but I would stay away from it. Too many intangibles involved in this one. I would play the over though even though I haven't seen it yet. I can see the score getting into the 90s.

I thought Locker was back, is he out again?

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

I'll take Locker +14 if he plays.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

ASU -6.5, 1u

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

67.5 total on Okla? Should this game have a total 7 higher than the TTech final score? And higher than Miz-Kansas total and final?

OU held under 28 4 of last 8 games. Last game btw these 2 went over that due solely to fumble-6 return. Mizz has clearly improved in 2 months and played fantastic D for 3 Qs v Kansas. OU's leading rusher is out this week.

Mizz doesn't need to run it up to get in BCS, and Okla can't unless WVu and LSU lose and they win. And then they don't need to run it up either. This is only 7 pts lower than the Hawaii v awful Wash total. Very odd, but I'm having a not-good year, so...

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

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Wash is pretty god awful wo Locker

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They've played one full game without him, which they won against Cal as 7 pt dogs.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

i don't know about you, but i was very impressed with the play of both hawaii and boise st.

-c

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

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I think you might see LSU -9 or -10, honestly.

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stunning, if it happens: with dorsey hobbled and a banged up secondary, this game could, as last week's, end up in OT. in fact, i would not be surprised if Tennessee won this thing outright.

personally, i think LSU would not suffer much if Miles trotted off to Michigan. the guy's a banana. i swear to god he would prefer a pep rally to preparation every day of the week.

-c

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

the OU game is all about line of scrimmage. the D-line is way too fast for Missouri's O-Line to handle. and Kansas beat themselves: two field goals missed in the first half, a safety on the last meaningful play. obviously, kansas was not prepared for the intensity of that game and Missouri was, but the kansas squad squandered way too many opportunities. my assessment prior to the game thought neither team would handle OU, for all the hype. still think that.

the Miss. team is 0-4 against OU with many of these players (16 returning starters): they have a history of failure to overcome. and a defense that couldn't stop a team with glue.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

anyone like north texas -2.5?

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you might see LSU -9 or -10, honestly.

[/ QUOTE ]

stunning, if it happens: with dorsey hobbled and a banged up secondary, this game could, as last week's, end up in OT. in fact, i would not be surprised if Tennessee won this thing outright.

personally, i think LSU would not suffer much if Miles trotted off to Michigan. the guy's a banana. i swear to god he would prefer a pep rally to preparation every day of the week.

-c

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - I think Tennessee could win outright. I wasn't trying to predict an outcome, I was predicting the line.

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
wow.
well color me surprised.
I really thought Miami would be viewed as ultra-crappy and CMU as better than they really are.

Obviously at 3.5 I'm thinking there's value with CMU.
They will practically have a home-field advantage in this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

we had lockx

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wow.
well color me surprised.
I really thought Miami would be viewed as ultra-crappy and CMU as better than they really are.

Obviously at 3.5 I'm thinking there's value with CMU.
They will practically have a home-field advantage in this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

we had lockx

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, excellent call MicroBob. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: NCAAF Early Early Lines Thread (Conference championship week)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, excellent call MicroBob. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed 100%..... i think next year i'll try to focus more on non-BCS conferences. seems pretty inefficient.

also, central florida was great.... why wasn't kevin smith nominated for doak walker? mike hart, come on??