*** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Yeah actually missed posting this for the week, and was first notified of that fact today. So maybe this experiment on information sharing is starting to run its course, who knows.

But if not, here's a placeholder for the next ten days to get us back on schedule.

In the future if I miss it and you've got an arb to post, create the thread. I can always edit it if there's a problem / lock it if its a dupe / whatever.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

seems all those hate threads about sharing may have taken its toll.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems all those hate threads about sharing may have taken its toll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Most people probably began to realize how common 1 and 2-cent arbs are and stopped posting them. I really think one thread for this sort of thing is sufficient, and only big opportunities should be posted (like the Cy Young 3-way, MNF 4-way that offered a $3k middle chance, etc).

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
seems all those hate threads about sharing may have taken its toll.

[/ QUOTE ]
Completely agreed. So in the interests of sharing...

New Orleans vs. Dallas, will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?

Bodog: Yes -210
Pinnacle: No +221

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

wsex Chuck - 120
Pinny Tito + 128

Either a small arb or a good line on Chuck.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
wsex Chuck - 120
Pinny Tito + 128

[/ QUOTE ]

That's almost 3 weeks away. Pass...

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

that should read -220 / +228.

Nice find.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex Chuck - 220
Pinny Tito + 228

[/ QUOTE ]

That's almost 3 weeks away. Pass...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But also, if someone simply wanted to bet on Chuck it is 28 points better on wsex at the moment.

Thanks for fixing the error Perfomify.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Utah! You're back. Eff the haters. Some people leave their rolls online and don't wanna grind it out. Let people who need the bonus $$$ to be cleared and the 8c enjoy it.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Utah! You're back. Eff the haters. Some people leave their rolls online and don't wanna grind it out. Let people who need the bonus $$$ to be cleared and the 8c enjoy it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Thremp. How are you? Are the gambling Gods treating you well?

Did I miss something while I was gone? Is posting arbs like this now frowned upon? My apologies if it is.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Utah everything is cool. Just ignore the people who are hating on your arbs.

-Brendan

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Here's a small middle...

Bodog - Seattle u25.5 -115 ($575 to win $500)
Pinny - Seattle o 25 +111 ($509.48 to win $565.52)

Factoring in Bodog's bonus, guaranteed profit of $.98 (woohoo!) with a chance at an extra $500 if the 25 hits.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a small middle...

Bodog - Seattle u25.5 -115 ($575 to win $500)
Pinny - Seattle o 25 +111 ($509.48 to win $565.52)

Factoring in Bodog's bonus, guaranteed profit of $.98 (woohoo!) with a chance at an extra $500 if the 25 hits.

[/ QUOTE ]
bodog's bonus hardly justifies taking a negative 4c loss on a day of game arb. and the chance of the total being 25 at halftime is probably about the same (if not less than) the game even ending in a tie (post-OT).

when arbing sports, bonus money should be treated exactly the same as real money. don't pretend that it's not when throwing it in the trash.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's a small middle...

Bodog - Seattle u25.5 -115 ($575 to win $500)
Pinny - Seattle o 25 +111 ($509.48 to win $565.52)

Factoring in Bodog's bonus, guaranteed profit of $.98 (woohoo!) with a chance at an extra $500 if the 25 hits.

[/ QUOTE ]
bodog's bonus hardly justifies taking a negative 4c loss on a day of game arb. and the chance of the total being 25 at halftime is probably about the same (if not less than) the game even ending in a tie (post-OT).

when arbing sports, bonus money should be treated exactly the same as real money. don't pretend that it's not when throwing it in the trash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did I miss some new sports betting forum contest where you get a point for being the first to respond to an arb posting with an a-hole comment?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

LOL at self-imposed exiles who come crawling back with no improvement of math skills.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at self-imposed exiles who come crawling back with no improvement of math skills.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must confess that I dont know the rules of the game. Did you just earn another point for being an a-hole the second time? Or, do the points escalate if you string a bunch of worthless a-hole posts together is a short period of time?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Utah,

Personally I think you got a weak ass troll attempt. I mean... seriously. Some of the stuff posted in OOT provides a wealth of things you can get burned for (For a solid burn check out the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] thread in NVG about DS). I personally was called much better. I'd take that as the real insult. He's treating you like you don't deserve a good put down. Thats whats really whack.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

I didn't see the a-hole comment. He pointed out that the arb was not worth taking, which I agree with.

If that was an a-hole comment you have been gone too long to see the usual tone of people around here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Utah,

Personally I think you got a weak ass troll attempt. I mean... seriously. Some of the stuff posted in OOT provides a wealth of things you can get burned for (For a solid burn check out the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] thread in NVG about DS). I personally was called much better. I'd take that as the real insult. He's treating you like you don't deserve a good put down. Thats whats really whack.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

That's a team total of 25, not a first half total of 25. 25 isn't quite as dead a team total as it is a first half total. On the whole though your point is correct.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't see the a-hole comment. He pointed out that the arb was not worth taking, which I agree with.

If that was an a-hole comment you have been gone too long to see the usual tone of people around here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I became as soft as a little girl while I was away.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

NBA:
Pinny : Spurs +8 +113
Bodog : Hornet -8 -110

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a million considered 22,000,000.000?
so its virtually impossible to push

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

I worked out formula once but I dont have it handy. It depends on the expected standard distribution and it depends if the range is in the sweet spot of where you think the movie will land. However, if I recall it is about 7 or 8 for every 125K as a starting point.

I also just paid for the Middle on Happyness. +120 and -172
. $420 or so if middle hits and lose 20 if it doesnt. I think the range for this movie is 16 to 22. So, conservatively I hit 1 in 10 and lost 9 in 10. +420 - 180 for +EV of $14. $140/10

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wsex: Charlottes Web over 22 At +120
Pinny: Under 23 at -117

3 cent arb
1 million free middle

[/ QUOTE ]

That went away fast. :P

Has anyone in the movie threads mentioned the # of cents each million is worth? I'll have to search the archives.

[/ QUOTE ]

is a million considered 22,000,000.000?
so its virtually impossible to push

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is nearly impossible to push. They don't round the totals.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

This probably doesn't belong in here but this thread is pretty quiet regardless...Utah do u have a list of all the sites that do box office lines? WSEX/Pinni/?

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
This probably doesn't belong in here but this thread is pretty quiet regardless...Utah do u have a list of all the sites that do box office lines? WSEX/Pinni/?

[/ QUOTE ]PM'd

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

clippers -2 -108 (skybook)
blazers +2 +111 (pinnacle)

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

gone

edit: back

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

NO vs Wash

Pinn- NO -10.5 +115
Skybook- Wash +10.5 -110

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

pinny chi -13.5 +102
sia tb +13.5 +100

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Pinny: KC Chiefs/SD Chargers, Over 48 (+115)
SIA: KC Chiefs/SD Chargers, Under 48 (-110)

Edit: And... gone as game started 7 minutes after this post.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

Nice prop arb bet for tonight's MNF game...

Pinny
Will the shortest Touchdown be over 1½ yards?
Yes +129

SIA
Shortest Touchdown Scored
Under 1.5 Yards -120

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice prop arb bet for tonight's MNF game...

Pinny
Will the shortest Touchdown be over 1½ yards?
Yes +129

SIA
Shortest Touchdown Scored
Under 1.5 Yards -120

[/ QUOTE ]

Just so you know, a shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards means you lose both bets.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

whooops did i mess that one up...? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

edit: nevermind... i see what you're saying. there's a danger of a middle... thx.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
whooops did i mess that one up...? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are fine. Hoqua is a tool.

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

thanks for that one tom

Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 12/07 - 12/17 ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
whooops did i mess that one up...? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

edit: nevermind... i see what you're saying. there's a danger of a middle... thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not possible to score a 1.5 yard touchdown in the NFL. Ignore pretty much anything chachi says. He wants to keep as many people away from arbitrage as he can.