Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

In a classic reverse of the traditional hedging manuever I wish to put some money down on my belief that a nonraked poker site will triumph.

Can anyone else help me with this idea? I suppose first order of business would be to find out the respective ticker symbols.

Since this is my idea I would like to kick back and relax, and explain it to anyone who doesnt understand.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I suggest you start by exploring the problems with the WSEX model, specifically, why it doesn't scale very well.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Party = PYGMF.PK on the pink sheets or PRTY.L on the London Stock Exchange.

I'd like to hear your reasoning for why you think WSEX is a good purchase. It's not like this rakefree business is going to be making them a ton of money. Also, it doesn't matter if they run the "best" poker site model in the whole industry, Party spends more on marketing than they do.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Ok first off have you guys played there yet?

My confidence comes from the following:

1. They have a great sportsbook already going, and this is how they can offer poker for "free"

2. The guys running it are S-M-A-R-T

3. Customer service is perfect

4. The site is already picking up steam, has an incredible London Tournament, and everyone is hearing about it

5. The software is great and getting even better (compare this and the customer service aspect to Party)

6. Our traffic is highly valuable, they should be paying US not the other way around, this is a visionary approach and will be the ultimate business model for online poker

If you know of some huge problems with their model please let me know. If they have huge customer service/server issues they will probably decide if its profitable to continue offering no rake poker, I believe the traffic through sports betting and even blackjack will make their model successful. So tell me what Im missing here, thats why I posted! ;-)

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

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2. The guys running it are S-M-A-R-T

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Could you go into this more? Have they worked together before? What is so special about them that you decided to mention this?
Thanks.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Kagame, i know you're a good poster. But posting this in this forum is similar to posting whether to fold KK preflop in HSNL.

For one thing, there was a similar thread about two days ago.
For another thing, these guys seem to do trading based on numbers/trends/tangible items. Not gut feelings or instinct.
What is WSEX's traffic like? I was on the other day and there were a pretty small amount of players. It seems like 2+2 is jumping on this wagon which doesn't help any sort of longevity for a large player base.

Also, is this just a promotion? If so there is no point. Also, shorting is a lot more than just betting that a stock is going to go down sometime in the future apparently.

Most importantly, is WSEX traded?

And most, most importantly, don't leave this forum after making this post. I made a similar post about shorting GM a couple of weeks ago. As it turns out the info here may be more valueable over your lifetime than any other forum on 2+2.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I just created the thread to stimulate conversation

Why do you find Party's lack of consideration for the customer to be something a company in a highly competitive landscape can get away with?

I find new alternatives fascinating as someone heavily into the poker scene. I would think we as poker players would be well situated to have a clear opinion here.

Is there traffic enough for everyone? Yes. Will Party stay dominant over the LONG run with considering current developments? I can see s strong case for their downfall and am willing to play Devil's Advocate.

I wouldnt post things like this if I found other threads to participate in that I found particularly interesting. Sometimes there are great threads, but its empty enough here for the discussion this might create, I think.

Oh and Im not leaving

???

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

kagame,

Thanks for this post.

I believe you make excellent points. Just yesterday, a close poker-playing friend of mine explained to me how disgusted he is with Party-- especially compared and contrasted against Stars.

Your suggestion to pairs-trade PRTY and WSEX greatly reduces overall risk while providing a potentially stunning return in the event both legs of the trade move favorably.

Mr. Now wonders out loud how much risk you take on to generate some very impressive returns in the:

Marketocracy Trading Contest with 2+2 Members
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=5349500

I achieve bumping you down in the rankings by the narrowest of margins recently. We are neck-and-neck. I continue to fine-tune my holdings weekly, in a market that features some very mixed signals. I do not sit back.

Thanks again for bringing this potential trade to attention.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I agree with you that party sucks, i've wondered why anybody plays there ever since they got rid of empire/rakeback (but this is back now?). They haven't really done anything for their customers in the 13 months that ive been around. But they're still #1 in the market for some reason. It has to be the marketing.

I would be more interested in the legislation knocking their price down than WSEX. If a real bill looks like it might pass congress, i'm sure their stock will take a hit.

As long as they have close to their current player level and have that little button on the side that says "blackjack", I think they'll make a pretty nice profit. Also the WSOP is coming up and i'm sure that wont hurt them.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

How about that little $25 solicitation that comes up when you login, the one for the lobbying effort?? They must perceive an incoming scud.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Yeah, I think they want the numbers of the Poker Alliance high to make legislaters think twice.

Ofcourse they get that $25 back after five bets on blackjack.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

For those interested... Nov 2004 WTO Report

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
The guys running it are S-M-A-R-T

[/ QUOTE ]

I have used the sportsbook there for years. I played alittle poker when it first started but they never had much traffic. The guys who started it are ex-Pacific Stock exchange options traders. It seems to be a very well run operation.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I don't believe WSEX is a publically traded corp on any exchange.

World Sports Exchange was born in the summer of 1996. It was first incorporated as an International Business Corporation in November of that year. We have been licensed to accept wagers in Antigua since January 5, 1997.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kagame, i know you're a good poster. But posting this in this forum is similar to posting whether to fold KK preflop in HSNL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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For one thing, there was a similar thread about two days ago.

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Link to the earlier thread which includes links to other forum threads

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For another thing, these guys seem to do trading based on numbers/trends/tangible items. Not gut feelings or instinct.

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There are many different styles of trading/investing represented in this forum! All ideas are good ones, and can lead to valuable and useful discussion and investable decisions.

Specifically, gut feelings and instinct, when properly evaluated can be most useful!

If someone posting here has a gut feeling about something, I certainly would like to hear about it, whether that person can quantify that feeling, or not, based on fundamental, technical, sentiment or any other means of evaluation.

Peter Lynch talks about "invest in what you know"!... the members of this forum, know about alot of different things, and tapping into that knowledge, can be extremely useful!

[ QUOTE ]
As it turns out the info here may be more valueable over your lifetime than any other forum on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree!!!

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you find Party's lack of consideration for the customer to be something a company in a highly competitive landscape can get away with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you believe this statement to be true?

On Dec 31 2005, PartyGaming had 1,189 employees... 791 were in customer service (and that number has since increased to over 900)

What Party had to say about customer support in its annual report...

[ QUOTE ]
From the outset, the Group recognised the need to provide customers with excellent customer service care. As part of its operations in Gibraltar and Hyderabad, India, it has established a dedicated customer service function with over 900 representatives that provide a 24/7 service, addressing technical as well as personal account enquiries. In 2005, the Group handled more than 4 million customer contacts, most of which were by phone, with the balance by email.


This function is separated into two teams: transaction services which deals with payment processing queries plus fraud and collusion control; and customer services which deals with all technical and software related enquiries as well as customer account, promotion and bonus enquiries.


The Group has established a series of performance targets that it seeks to meet on a daily basis as follows:
• 80% of all cash out verifications are completed and processed within six hours
• 90% of all phone calls are answered within 10 seconds
• 75% of all emails are answered within 30 minutes and 90% are answered within 90 minutes.

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[ QUOTE ]
Looking after the Group’s 1.3 million active poker customers and 0.4 million active casino customers during the year is a core part of the Group’s activities. Customers need to feel that they are playing in a safe and secure environment and that any issues will be resolved quickly. Our state-of-the-art business process outsourcing (‘BPO’) operation in Hyderabad now has over 900 operators in Customer Services and Transaction Services who are available to talk to or respond to emails from customers 24 hours a day. Over the 12 months to 31 December 2005, the customer service teams dealt with over 4 million customer contacts, of which 2.4 million were by phone, the balance by email. This represents a 25% increase in the total over 2004.


In an online survey of customers conducted by GoodCorporation in January 2006, of those who expressed a view, 87% found that the customer contact by PartyGaming was either better than expected or said it was much better than competitors. That said, the Group is not complacent and is determined to continue to improve the quality of its customer service offering through increased resources and training.


Transaction Services in India helps to resolve customer queries relating to the online cashier. Both the Customer Service and Transaction Services teams work closely together and a customer enquiry received by one team may be resolved by the other, if more appropriate to do so. Improving the speed of transactions for customers and also increasing the range of methods available to pay-in and withdraw funds remain key objectives for the Group. There are now 23 ways in which customers can pay-in funds to their accounts including online wallets, credit cards and other mechanisms.

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Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

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• 90% of all phone calls are answered within 10 seconds by a person whom barely speaks english.
• 75% of all emails are answered within 30 minutes and 90% are answered within 90 minutes with a form letter that hardly correlates to the question asked.


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edit: I've actually never had a problem with partys CS or cashier. My main issue for not playing there is the lack of rakeback. I think this may be why WSEX isn't going to hurt them much. If people are interested in saving their rake, they have probably already left party for a rakeback site. A large majority of players that move to WSEX will probably be players moving from rakeback sites to WSEX, not from Party to WSEX.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Does WSEX have PT compatibility???

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]

• 75% of all emails are answered within 30 minutes and 90% are answered within 90 minutes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think by "answered" they mean some text was sent out to the address which came in. They don't mean "answered" in the usual sense, where the response addresses the question.

eastbay

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I think this problem is blown out of proportion on these boards, and that as demonstrated by the survey quoted by Party, most people are happy with their customer service!

(which shouldn't be interpreted to mean that I don't think they can/should do better)

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I hopped on the site for a min. earlier. There still arent too many people there. I think youd have a have a problem finding two full tables at any level you wanna play.

I haven't actually deposited money and played there though.

I'm not sure about PT, i havent kept up with the threads very much. I think I recall somebody trying to get hand historys emailed to them and not having much luck with it, but i dont really know.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I am short PRTY. It is a long-term play that I strongly believe will be very profitable.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Since this is my idea I would like to kick back and relax, and explain it to anyone who doesnt understand.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


Not sure if you were being sacrastic, but the above is wrong in any case.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post5301019


Gotta be quicker than this dude!

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

happy or not with party, whether wsex.com poker succeeds isnt totally important. Its the idea that there will now be sites which will operate on much smaller margins which will eventaully (1 year-5 years) cut down on the profits of the major sites. How do I short party by the way. It doesnt trade in the U.S does it?

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

ahnuld.. I had already linked your thread in this one! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The discussion is good, I'm glad it was brought up again.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
happy or not with party, whether wsex.com poker succeeds isnt totally important. Its the idea that there will now be sites which will operate on much smaller margins which will eventaully (1 year-5 years) cut down on the profits of the major sites. How do I short party by the way. It doesnt trade in the U.S does it?

[/ QUOTE ]

More sites doesn't necessarily hurt Party... there are plenty of sites now!

What happens to WSEX when PartyGaming enters the Sportbook business?

Party trades on the London exchange!

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am short PRTY. It is a long-term play that I strongly believe will be very profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why?

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

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What happens to WSEX when PartyGaming enters the Sportbook business?

[/ QUOTE ]

Snap, the old switcheroo

I think bodog would need to change their shorts if this happened as well.


[ QUOTE ]

I am short PRTY. It is a long-term play that I strongly believe will be very profitable.

-----------------------------------------------

Can you explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Or more importantly, the details of the deal.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Im just going to come out and say Mr. Now has me terrified by how saracastic his post could possibly be, especially considering by dumb comment about this being my idea, which was only somewhat facetious

my marketocracy picks are a mix of motley fool and other recommendations ive found and done some DD from various sources, Jubak for example. I have no claims of being anything close to an expert but I do put some effort into the research.

I also have no idea what sort of margins Party has and I dont follow the pokerpulse data very carefully, its just if there was a reasonable alternative to party with little or no rake I would be very loyal to that poker site, and party would lose my business

I do agree that one should invest in what you know, or what those you know, know

For example I have a good friend who is an Apple fanatic and he can time the stock price movements incredibly well, in fact I think he could easily daytrade that one stock and live off it if he had a hundred grand to work with, hes also 21.

After my Shanda fiasco I am pretty much just diversifying heavily and trying to think about the market in an open manner, as it sure seems to be more complicated than I had first expected. Above and beyond the intelligent discussion here, I really appreciate the reading lists that are posted.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am short PRTY. It is a long-term play that I strongly believe will be very profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe PRTY is a poorly run business with a terrible affiliate model doomed to outpace revenues over the long haul. Many close competitors are slicing deeply into market share, and I have some inside information about the competition (not silly WSEX stuff, that's obviously doomed to fail/make no difference at all for the same reason that taxes won't ever go down) that based my decision to maintain a short position for the forseeable future.

By long-term play, I mean years, not months.

As for the OP, people don't care about rake. Try explaining to someone why the Income Tax Withholding Act is a vile and evil thing, and when they don't get it, understand why they will never realize why rake is killing them.

EDIT: As for the details of how I am short, I'd prefer not to discuss them in an open forum.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

i agree about PRTY

what would you see as an alternative to WSEX as a main competitor?

also, please note that WSEX will be a great poker room for many reasons, not simply due to them having no rake

imho its a better looking/working/CS bodog with all the same great gambling action from sportsbooking

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Why haven't the few sites where Bonus+Rakeback > 100% rakeback, taken over yet?

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why haven't the few sites where Bonus+Rakeback > 100% rakeback, taken over yet?


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think too many people understand how many BB/100 40% rakeback comes out to. I dont know for sure but i've got about 75K hands with it and my estimate is that its about 3 or 4 big blinds, so thats 1.5 or 2PTBB/100, not too shabby.(edit: thats NL play)

As for the details of the deal, i have no concern for the dollar amounts, just the other parts, regarding shorting PRTY.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

MB, my point is that there are already deals BETTER than rakefree out there and they have not stopped Party's growth!

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

Is it legal to short Party from the US? I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I seem to remember reading conflicting opinions.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it legal to short Party from the US? I'm sure this has been discussed before, but I seem to remember reading conflicting opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

PartyGaming is a stock that is traded on the london exchange. The only difficulty is finding a broker that trades London shares (IB is one).

Why would trading these shares be "illegal"?

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

i havent played on any decently designed and operated site with this good of a rakeback deal, and ive tried everything

no other site has an incredible London poker Tournament that it sponsors

there are more elusive barriers to entry in this sector, i think word of mouth and "coolness" will create good player traffic

full tilt has done pretty well, i play there because of the good marketing im sure, otherwise i had no reason to switch from party

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
there are more elusive barriers to entry in this sector, i think word of mouth and "coolness" will create good player traffic

[/ QUOTE ]

What incentive does WSEX have to offer affiliates to generate "word of mouth" fish traffic?

Fact is, there is minimal barriers to ENTRY in the online poker market and achievement of a minimum level of success (its pretty cheap to open a skin). However, there are significant barriers to success on a large scale, like Party has achieved.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

[ QUOTE ]
PRTY is a poorly run business with a terrible affiliate model doomed to outpace revenues over the long haul.

[/ QUOTE ]
Please explain this more. It sounds like you're saying their affiliate payouts will be greater than their revenue, but I know that can't be right.

Re: Short PRTY Buy WSEX
 

I would SOOOOOO much rather be short on GM than PRTY right now. I dont think shorts were designed for the most profitable business in the most profitable business sector in the world. You guys realize that pretty much other than coke dealers and exxon, Party Poker has like the largest profit margin in the world.