Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

This is Part 4 of Play a Hand with the Masters #3. If you haven't already responded to Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 you should do so first.

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t140. BB raises to t300. Hero calls t160.

Turn
Pot: t770

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t520. BB calls t520.

River
Pot: t1810

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

River Questions
1) What do you think the villain has?

2) Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)? If you bet anything less than all-in, what's your plan if check-raised? Obviously explain your reasoning for your action.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Check, there aren't any hands that have you beat that will fold to a bet and there are very few hands that are worse that will payoff a bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

The question that comes to my mind is whether he just hit a draw he was chasing and wants us to continue the aggression we've shown throughout the hand.
I'm willing to just check behind for the reasons Pat mentioned. The pot's already big enough at this point to just take down and not risking being trapped by that dangerous river

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Pot is t1810, Hero has t1640 behind.

The river completes a very likely flush draw and a very unlikely straight draw.

The fact that the villain check-called the turn is a very good sign, IMO it says that Hero was ahead at that point and the villain was on some kind of draw (or perhaps a weak 9 or middle pp, but most likely some kind of draw).

That being said, a bet on this river would be a serious mistake IMO, because the draws that missed will fold, and the ones that hit will raise.

Therefore, this seems like a clear time to check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

River Questions
1) What do you think the villain has?
2) Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)? If you bet anything less than all-in, what's your plan if check-raised? Obviously explain your reasoning for your action.

I put him on a flush draw after he checked the turn, so no way am I betting here. The only reason to bet is if I don't want to show that I had 75o. But I am going to get raised by hands that are beating me and the others probably aren't going to call. I seriously do not think my hand is good. Free showdown is awesome. This is, like, the easiest check ever.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason to bet is if I don't want to show that I had 75o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate please.

It seems to me (as I suggested in the first thread of the series) that if you play 75o at this point you are hoping to get to showdown. At this stage of the tournament blind stealing will not be a big concern, so if showing down this hand the effects of
1) making blind stealing more difficult against these opponents, and
2) making Hero less predictable.

Then the overall effect of the showdown is a beneficial one to the Hero IMO.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Very easy check. Villain could easily have a low flush and is check/calling. When last to act on the river, don't bet with a medium strength hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Sure. If I don't want people to think I am a LAG, then I can bet on the river to induce a fold so I don't have to showdown. Most of the time, I don't know why you'd really want to do this, especially when analyzing this hand. Like you said, it's early, and if the donkey's think I am a fellow donk, EV shoots way up. I was just trying to think of something positive to say in defense of betting the river. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] For this hand, the only way we could bet on the end (and for it to be +EV) is to KNOW that he will call with a worse hand. The way this hand went down (and remember we had no pre-flop reads, cuz it's early), I don't think it is possible to know.

Hope that made sense.

-Gross

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I actually want to push. From villain's play on this hand so far, I believe him to be a donkey. I don't see a donkey checking this river with a two pair or better, so I think we're ahead. There's no reason to not to bet when we're ahead, and the pot's about the size of our stack, so I'm pushing.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Let's play this from the Villian's perspective.

He called a raise preflop. He checkraised and was called on the flop. He checked and the guy bet 3/4 pot on the turn and he called.

Then when the flush draw gets there, you think he checks if he made the flush? It sure looks pretty likely that Jason isn't on a flush draw, so why check if you make the flush and risk jason checking behind w/ a hand like two pair or an overpair. I just don't buy that the BB has a flush and would check there.

I think that you need to value bet that river. Since the villian has played this hand like a donkey, I fully expect him to pay off w/ his better one pair hands. Pot is ~1800, we have somewhere around 2k, so I think that we should bet 1k (and call a push).

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pot is ~1800, we have somewhere around 2k, so I think that we should bet 1k (and call a push).

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has t1640, slightly less than the pot (1810). Do you still bet 1K or do you push?

What hands do you see calling Hero here that he beats? A9? 67? 88? Seems like an odd way to play those hands on the turn.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pot is ~1800, we have somewhere around 2k, so I think that we should bet 1k (and call a push).

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has t1640, slightly less than the pot (1810). Do you still bet 1K or do you push?

What hands do you see calling Hero here that he beats? A9? 67? 88? Seems like an odd way to play those hands on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

haven't you ever played in these things? seems like a standard way for most players to play those hands on the turn (and pay off on the river).

I still bet 1k on the river.


edit: actually, thinking about it...I think I want to bet a little less on the river to widen the range of hands that call to include smaller one pair hands like T9, 89, 88, all queens. The result will be the same vs. a flush and maybe we lose less w/ hands that are ahead of us, but afraid to bet. I think something like 750-800 is better.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

several people have made similar arguments:

- he played the rest of the hand like a donkey.
- only a donkey would check a made flush on the river.
- so we should bet the river.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

i think there are also stupidly played made hands that are checking out of an odd fear of a flush. e.g., 68, 99, q9, qq, etc.

i may miss some value when i have the opportunity to check behind on a scary river, but i'm checking here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually want to push. From villain's play on this hand so far, I believe him to be a donkey. I don't see a donkey checking this river with a two pair or better, so I think we're ahead. There's no reason to not to bet when we're ahead, and the pot's about the size of our stack, so I'm pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think one pair hands are calling this push?

Are you insane?

fwiw I am betting approximately 600

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]

- he played the rest of the hand like a donkey.
- only a donkey would check a made flush on the river.
- so we should bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think many donkeys check a flush here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think many donkeys check a flush here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have seen donkeys go check call on the most powerful draws and when they hit, they check again hoping to trap or something. Trust me, he is more than capable of having a made flush here.

Yes, betting 600 will get a call from flushes, and possibly a checkraise (assuming he is really that good of a player to move us off of bottom two or he really does have the nuts), but betting 600 also assures a call from a wide range of one pair hands and one pair + missed draw hands that might think something is suspicious and call. Furthermore we could possibly move villain off of a better hand by making this "value bet".

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

The villian's check here isn't a made flush in my opinion.

I think the villian has given up on his hand and would have bet out with a made flush or straight. He can't be looking to c/r a flush.

I think made hands are betting here 100% of the time.

We can safely bet 1/3-1/2 pot and either get called by A9x or AQx or pick up the hand uncontested. I think a c/r is unlikely but I'm calling based on my previous statement that made hands are betting out.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pot is ~1800, we have somewhere around 2k, so I think that we should bet 1k (and call a push).

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has t1640, slightly less than the pot (1810). Do you still bet 1K or do you push?

What hands do you see calling Hero here that he beats? A9? 67? 88? Seems like an odd way to play those hands on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you guys f-ing crazy? What was this guy calling and checkraising with if he didn't have a flush draw or could beat the smallest 2 pair? What is he going to call you with that you can beat?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

1) What do you think the villain has?

Wow, another interesting dilemma. Well, I think Villian has middle cards. Something along the lines of pair + draw (draw that didn't get there).

There's a slight possibility Villian has the made straight or the flush now, but his line has been quite peculiar for this type of hand.


2) Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)? If you bet anything less than all-in, what's your plan if check-raised? Obviously explain your reasoning for your action.

Villian called our pre-flop raise out of position. The flop didn't appear to help our hand, from Villians perspective.

He check min-raised us. He might have had a piece of the flop and thought we whiffed, but was worried we might be on an overpair that currently had his pair + draw beat, so he didn't want to be too large and commit too many chips. If he's a donk, he was hoping we'd give the pot to him right there. If he's a thinking player, it might have been a move to gain info, or perhaps to build a pot and/or tick us off and cause us to push against his made hand.

The turn he checks, and it's provided him no apparent help. We bet a significant portion of the pot, and he just calls? The river now brings some of Villians potential draws to the forefront. He may have made his straight or his flush.

But once again, he's checked. Possibly because we've continued being the agressor in this hand and shown that we like our hand. He may be figuring that we're going to fire another bullet into his strong hand on the river.

He sure has committed a lot of chips already though. He may be a donk/calling station, and just not know correct strategy. His play seems to indicate that, or some kind of monster hand.

He may have made his flush or straight, but fear we've got the A/K of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and have him beat.

Whatever the case, I really don't care what he might have at this point. While I might be able to accumulate more chips from him here, the possibility of being check-raised and having to dump our hand and not see his just isn't worth it. There's 1800 chips in the pot, he's checked and it makes perfect sense to check-behind and see what the results are.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Villain's line makes no sense for a flush draw the small raise, call on the turn without proper odds, and now check on the river when the draw got there. Villain's line makes no sense for two pair, set, flopped straight, or over pair either because you'd think they would have bet or check-raised the turn. Villain really looks like a donkey that is calling down with TT/JJ/A9/AQ/KQ type hands. So you value bet the river about 900 and call a push.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy check. Villain could easily have a low flush and is check/calling. When last to act on the river, don't bet with a medium strength hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

How about AQ, A9, KK, or AA?

And why wouldn't he bet a made hand here?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Checking a made flush happens a lot, way more than you would expect. They can't believe how lucky they got when it comes, and the slow-play instinct which is so finely tuned with them kicks in, so they check (believing it is the only way to double up).

Once again, not saying that it is a flush, but dont discount it. You see players checking rivered flushes playing limit, where it makes even less sense.

Im in the check behind camp. They arent calling a large bet here without a very specific group of hands (AA,KK, AQ) that we are beating. I think you will see a checked flush (or str8) more often than a calling hand we beat

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I'm with GrandGNU on this; I think he's putting Strassa on overcards. He sees the flop bet as a straightforward CB on a missed flop, whereas he actually caught a bit of it; I'm thinking suited connectors 78 thru to JQ. The turn check means he either hit or, more likely, he's worried Strassa hit. The call tends to confirm this, I think he'd raise if he had the Q (and wouldn't have CRed the flop) - I believe he wants a cheap showdown.

If he hit his flush wouldn't he value bet it? Strassa hasn't played as if he's on that draw. I value bet 600 and hope he feels he has to call with Ah9nh/87/98/9T.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think anyone would check a flush with 2h when there are 4 hearts on the board?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It is rare for opponents to attempt the check-raise on the river with a flush in online no-limit tournaments, so there are many hands that would pay off. I think a bet of 750 is optimal to get the max out of a 9 which is villain's most likely hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


You don't think anyone would check a flush with 2h when there are 4 hearts on the board?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 3 hearts on this board, if there were 4 I'd push because there's a good chance I can get a better hand to fold.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I can't HELP but bet at this. 700 sounds about right. I have him on KQ, AQ, JQ, 89-9A, Q9, a bunch of hands that don't call, and a couple hands that bluff big at me. And 8% chance of a flush, which will rise to a 40% chance if I am check/raised.

Yeah, I bet. and Yeah I call a push.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

I still don't like betting out here. The pot is 1800 or so, and we can check for FREE and with 100% certainty see if we won.

What is Villian calling a 500+ chip bet on the turn with? A draw? A made hand? A pair? He doesn't have odds to call unless he's got a made hand. And if he does have a made hand, then he should have raised with his straight just in case we're on the nut flush draw.

His play is extremely confusing, we still have failed to accurately figure out his holding, and his bizzare play has failed to define it for us.

So yes, betting 500 or something as a value bet might be a good move. It is quite possible we have this hand won and Villian will pay us off.

But, there's 1800 in the pot, and we can find out without any additional risk if we've won or not. Or, we can go and bet between 500-700 like some of you are suggesting, which is essentially pot-commiting us for our remaining stack.

So to win 500-700 chips, you're actually risking your remaining 1600+ chips and your entire tournament. I just don't feel confident enough (since Villian hasn't defined his hand adequately) to make that "value" bet.

Perhaps that is what separates me from the true pro's. I'm not willing to take those type of risks. But I think it's a -EV bet given the potential for loss, it's just uneccessary. I still advocate the check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well I think i learned something from this thread. Just because a normal player won't pay off on this river very often, this player may. The more I think about it the more I like betting around 600. Although I'd like to hear some justification for calling a push. Say you bet 600 into the 1800 chip pot, and he pushes, you then need to call 1000 to win 5000. I can't imagine you're good more than 20% of the time here, and calling seems like chip spewing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind a value bet, when you believe with significant certainty that you have the best hand.

But this guy min-check raised us on the flop, check-called a HUGE turn bet and checked on the river. None of his actions make any sense (from our perspective) for him having made the straight, flush, set, top pair with good kicker, pair with draw, etc.

The only possible holding that Villian could have in this spot that would make sense with the way he played would be 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

But the chances for another holding are higher. Still, we aren't ahead of all of those holdings and his play did not reflect those hands.

So that means either he's a good player with the monster 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or he's a donk and we still don't know what his holding is.

Risking, let's say 600 chips (in the hope we get paid off another 600) is pretty much -EV here. If we're beat and get check-raised then here's our problem:

HOPE TO WIN: 600 chips

RISKING TO WIN THOSE CHIPS: 1600 + tournament life

We're pretty much risking 2.7 times the amount we hope to win.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life. I'd say that there's a very small chance I'm ahead here if he checkraises the river, and I can therefore fold; furthermore I think I'm best the majority of the time when he calls, which would make betting correct. If however I thought that 1. he c/r bluffs enough with a worse hand 2. doesn't call with enough worse hands then i like checking behind on the river. I just think that from what I can gather from his play on this hand he isn't that type of player to make betting incorrect.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

The way he played the turn makes me think he was on a flush draw. I now think he made his flush and that he wants to check-raise again. There is the possibility that he is a donkey and has been calling with TPTK or something else that we beat. A str8 is now unlikely as is a set or another two pair. If we bet, I think we are throwing chips away to his flush. I check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time. The way you played this hand, it is not reasonable to have the flush draw. Villian should know this. A bet of 5-800 looks like one last desperation attempt to take this pot down, and if your opponent has nothing, he may try to push. Why? 'Cause how could he push without the flush? In my earlier post, I said 8% chance of flush, 40% if he pushes. I'll up that to 60%. He shouldn't have a flush here. Most players don't call the 550 on the turn w/o a draw, though combo draws like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might (incorrectly). That a player would do that and then check the river is even more unlikely. We know that this is a player capable of a check/rz bluff, so the chance that he might do it again is increased.

Now, there are many "made" hands that call this "desperation river bluff". Any Q, some 9s, some PPs. The only hand I am scared of is Q9. This is Value Bet Time.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see monsters under the bed.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

OK, first time in a week I'm not dead so let me take a stab at this post:

I think I said on the flop that we bet 1/2 the pot or so, call a CR and call the turn/bet if checked to. Great, according to plan so far. We get a pretty bad, but not horrible river and the BB checks. What does that tell us?

Well, there's very little chance he has a flush, because that doesn't usually check this card. He didn't flop a straight (I hope, because this would be the worst possible way to play it) and this isn't a hand that had us beat on the turn unless it was exactly 97/Q9. So, when we have him beat now (which is usually), it's probably with something like A9, and we need to figure out what he will call. I think that figure is in the 600-800 range, depending on what looks more like a last street bluff (I've bet exactly 520 there a few times) and go with whatever I decide is worth it. Also, I take a bunch of time off the clock when I do.

BTW, if you do bet something in this range, I think you can fold to a quick push, because one pair does not play this way and if you want to call a CR you have to put him on a three street bluff with absolutely nothing.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the justification for calling a push is that you need to be right some 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really dont think its possible to be ahead after a river cr to be good 25% of the time against any opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see monsters under the bed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Give me a range of hands that somebody will play like this then check raise the river where you are ahead 25% of the time.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, so the pot has 1800 chips, we bet out 600, leaving ourselves 1K behind. Villian check-raises to put us all-in, making the pot 3,000. We're getting 3:1 on our money and we fold? You could have saved the 600 chips AND had a 100% chance to see the showdown and possibly win the 1800.

So to try and win an additional 600 chips, you're risking the 1800 chips in the pot (since you plan to fold to a check-raise). This is just about as bad as risking the 600 chips with the intention of calling a check-raise for our remaining 1K chips (i.e. risking 1600 to win another 600 plus risking our entire tournament life).

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River
 

Easy check. Every draw is there, and it means he wont make a crying call with a top pair type mediocre hand. Better hands call, worse hands fold.