KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I'm playing 5/10 full waiting for a seat to open in the 10. table is mostly LP.

unknown limps UTG, I raise black KK UTG+1. 3 callers, and the UTG limper now 3 bets confidently. I'm not sure what this means but AA is likely. Nonetheless, I cap for the following reasons

1) if UTG doesn't have AA, not capping is a huge mistake
2) with all those people in, even if UTG has AA, capping is NOT a huge mistake imo

so here we go, everyone calls. 5 to the flop.

Flop is 973 rainbow. UTG leads quickly.

I dont think raising now is good. Consider:

1) Raising now offers all draws odds to call.
2) I may be behind to AA.

I call. My plan is to raise any turn card and take a free showdown from UTG if offered.

Turn black 8. UTG leads. I raise. An MP cold caller 3 bets. The button calls 3 bets cold. Others, including UTG, fold. I fold, for I cant see MP having anything other than JT, 65, or a set.

Dissect with extreme prejudice. what im curious about is:

1) who raises the flop?
2) who calls down the turn 3?



(note: I actually think now that the flop was rainbow. edited)

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

How likely is it that UTG will bet again on the turn w/o AA after everyone calls on the flop?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I don't get it. How are you offering odds to those behind you by raising? Is it because you're committing yourself to a showdown?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]

1) Raising now offers all draws odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was capped preflop with 5 people coming along. The pot is now huge. Forgoing a raise here is not going to protect your hand, and there's a pretty good chance that you have the best one. Since you can't protect your hand you might as well just raise it - worst case, they call with their draw that you are probably quite a bit ahead of, and best case they fold incorrectly giving you a better chance of winning.

Yes, AA is in UTG's range, but a lot of the donks I play with frequently pull lrr's with other junk like suited aces, or big suited connectors. I'm betting QQ/AK might also be a possibility. You would obviously have a better idea based on your read of him. I think you still have to raise though as there are other people in the hand... give them a chance to make a mistake.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

2) who calls down the turn 3?

This is tough. The weakest hand I can put villain on is 98, or 87. Far more likely that he has the straight or a set like you said. If we call the turn then I think we have to show down, so we're putting in 2 more bets and probably have like, a 3-4 % chance of winning. This probably makes it a fold but I feel sick doing it in a 25BB pot.

*Edit to say I'm probably wrong about having to show this down UI if we call the turn considering the 3rd player in. If we don't improve on the river and it goes check, bet, call, overcalling would likely be pretty bad. It's probably still a turn fold though, but maybe something to consider.

**Edit2: Just reread my post and realized it contradicts itself in many ways. Since we're always behind we obv. can't show down. We're probably only drawing to our 2 K's which may not even be good. Fold the turn.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
2) who calls down the turn 3?

This is tough. The weakest hand I can put villain on is 98, or 87. Far more likely that he has the straight or a set like you said. If we call the turn then I think we have to show down, so we're putting in 2 more bets and probably have like, a 3-4 % chance of winning. This probably makes it a fold but I feel sick doing it in a 25BB pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be lost, but I can say I don't call down the turn three.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I get these hands all the time playing live 3/6. 90% of the time I'm not even in 2nd place. That 3bet by the MP sniper usually means I'm dead so I tend to run away when this happenes.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I get these hands all the time playing live 3/6. 90% of the time I'm not even in 2nd place. That 3bet by the MP sniper usually means I'm dead so I tend to run away when this happenes.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. I think it's an easy fold to the turn 3-bet. The only questionable play is raising flop vs. waiting for turn, IMO.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is 973 rainbow. UTG leads quickly.

I dont think raising now is good. Consider:
1) Raising now offers all draws odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol kit you can't be serious

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

Are our only options fold here or call down?

I'd probably call the turn, closing the action, then fold any non-K non-3 river.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

Raise the flop. The reality is that you rarely are going to be able to "price out" draws in this game. Raising now is good because you have an equity advantage. Here's the thing, when you think you're ahead you should raise. When you think you aren't, you should either call or fold. Note: having the best hand right now doesn't mean that you are "ahead".

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

This is tough. In the live 4/8 - 6/12 that i play, the LRR from early position seems to always be AA. Still, people get retarded sometimes (often), and we have KK, so...

I like the call flop / raise turn line, I think. People often get aggressive both preflop and on the flop in these live games, but generally slow down the turn unless they have the goods. So we're likely to get raised and reraised on the flop and still not know where we stand, whereas we can comfortably fold when we're reraised on the turn. Also, we charge the draws much more with the turn raise than a flop raise, as was mentioned already.

But then again, its a big pot, and we have an equity edge with KK, so maybe that's all B.S. and we should just raise the flop.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
My plan is to raise any turn card and take a free showdown from UTG if offered.

[/ QUOTE ].

This is the only big flaw in your thinking. I think you can vb the river here.

Waiting until the turn is perfectly fine given the size of the pot. Turn is a call if theres even a slim chance that he has 2 pair. Vs a range of set or straight then you have a fold

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

* grunch *

I raise the flop. I know all sorts of draws have the odds to continue but I believe 2 outers as well as backdoor straigh/flushes don't so I charge them as much as possible to see the turn. And if UTG 3bets and you cap I think you've just charged 3 and 4 outers more than they can afford. If you wait until the turn the pot is still going to be about 12.5:1, plus UTG bet/call and your raise, so draws will still be getting about 8:1; in a pot this large it might even be conceivable for gut shots to make this up? I have to re-read the section on SSHE on waiting to raise until the turn in big pots, but this pot is stupid huge; I'm guessing I make more money making near dead hands pay on the flop than "outplaying" my opponents. I could be very wrong on this.

What are you getting on the turn, 21:1 or something stupid like that? You don't think this is good enough to see the river, pair the board or spike your King and have your two pair / set be good enough of the time? I think I call the turn. The problem for me is when I whiff I'm then still getting tremendous odds to make a crying call with top pair; I guess I evaluate the river action and make a decision there.

I also hate the idea of taking a free showdown from UTG; I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

GcluelessnoobG

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I also hate the idea of taking a free showdown from UTG; I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see suited broadways and connectors here at least as often as AA. But then again, it appears that all my anecdotal observations are wrong.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I raise the flop for two reasons:

1. He might not bet out on the turn for various reasons. Someone behind you might raise if you just call, freezing him up on the turn. Or even if it just goes one bet, he still might freeze up.

2. The pot will have 23 bets in it if you raise, and callers will be being offered 11.5:1. One type of draw does not have odds to call that; pocket pairs. Another type of draw is on the fence and might fold; lonely aces.

Those two factors make me raise the flop.

As for the turn....man it sucks to not be able to call that down, but you're NEVER good here.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

GcluelessnoobG

[/ QUOTE ]

In my game, limp/raises are only AA like 33% from unknown players.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I'm surprised by how many people think we can't catch up on the river. Couldn't 3bettor and coldcoldcaller just have 2 pair here enough of the time? Hero is raising/capping preflop, so even most retards will put Hero on a high pocket pair; villains now know that their two pair is good on turn and they can (and should) 3bet. Or am I giving typical villain too much credit here? Actually, a cold 3bet and call on the turn is pretty damn scary at my 2/4 table, but still...

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

if the three bet folded everyone else I would consider it closer. the three cold behind seals the deal for me.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
if the three bet folded everyone else I would consider it close. the three cold behind seals the deal for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed that. Folding is fine I think.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I don't think we should give a lot of consideration to the LRR. This is usually not AA.

Waiting for the turn to raise is right out of SSHE and they use a KK hand as an example. You have little or no chance to protect your hand on the flop because our raise would offer everyone at least 23:2. Waiting for the turn offers less than 8:1 to any GS plus we would have a good chance to get some other hands to incorrectly fold for two BBs.

I am trying to think of a reason not to fold for one more bet on the turn and we can probably SD getting 23:2. I really think we have little chance, though.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I play mostly 3/6 and in my experience the early position limp/3-bet is AA/KK maybe 50% of the time. The more passive the player, the more likely it is AA.

I really don’t understand not raising the flop here. If there are draws out there, I want to charge them the maximum for the times they don’t make it. If UTG does not three bet, then he probably does not have AA. I would definitely raise this flop.

After the 3 bet on the turn, I’m pretty sure that you are beat. It could be 2 pair and you still have outs, but it is probably the straight. I would fold unless MP was a maniac or some tricky, supper aggressive player.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I want to charge them the maximum for the times they don’t make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly why i didnt raise the flop.

to "charge the maximum" we have to wait until the turn to raise, and hope the draws dont get there on that card.

also, like ricks pointed out, limit hold em (imo) is not necessarily about "charging". its about waiting for an opportunity where you can make it incorrect for people to call (notice that if i raise the flop, all gutshots are making a mistake by folding) or induce them to make an improper fold. this cannot be done on the flop.

imo, the unique thing about limit poker is that, in reality, all hands (except the unbeatable nuts) are essentially draws until all 5 cards are dealt. For example, you have black TT, someone has KhQh, and another has A9. the flop is 9h3h2s. who is charging who in this spot?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

Regarding charging draws in this hand...

1) On flop, if we are able to 4bet (which might be possible if UTG 3bets a big pair) we'll be charging a single gutshot 28:4 if they are the only other one that comes along for the ride, 32:4 if one other joins us; I guess implied odds might still make this a profitable flop play for them but it seems a little close to me.

2) While we may not be charging gutshots to continue, we will be charging others (2 outers, backdoors) a lot to continue. Do we make more by letting 1 gutshot continue profitably along with us while charging 3 other idiots?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
also, like ricks pointed out, limit hold em (imo) is not necessarily about "charging". its about waiting for an opportunity where you can make it incorrect for people to call (notice that if i raise the flop, all gutshots are making a mistake by folding) or induce them to make an improper fold. this cannot be done on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that in this case there is nothing you can do to protect your hand against gutshots on the flop. They are going to call on this flop no matter what, but do all your opponents have gutshots? What about opponents with a pocket pair, like 88, 66, 55, 44 or 22? With no raise they are getting the correct odds to peel the flop. With a raise it would be a mistake for them to peel. Also anyone with just Ax is getting the odds to peel the flop when you don’t raise.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
imo, the unique thing about limit poker is that, in reality, all hands (except the unbeatable nuts) are essentially draws until all 5 cards are dealt. For example, you have black TT, someone has KhQh, and another has A9. the flop is 9h3h2s. who is charging who in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because there are two to a flush on the board, doesn’t mean that one of your opponents has the flush draw. In this particular case clearly the KQ hand has the best draw, with both two overcards and the flush draw. Still, it is actually the hand with TPTK that has the least equity in this pot. I ran pokerStove on this, and the TT hand has 31.15% equity, the KQ 53.15% and the A9 15.18%. So TT is only making a small mistake by raising here. It would be a bigger mistake if you were heads up with the KQ hand. But you don’t know what your opponent’s cards are. Many times your opponents will not have the flush draw. So I think you still need to raise in this case.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

In my mind the most important question on the flop is does UTG have AA? If UTG has AA, your problem here is not trying to manipulate the pot to try to get gutshots to make bad calls. Your problem is to try to minimize what UTG is charging you to draw to your 2 outer. On the other hand, if UTG does not have AA, then you have a significant equity advantage. By not raising the flop, you are now going to pay more on the turn if UTG has AA and none of the other draws make it.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
By not raising the flop, you are now going to pay more on the turn if UTG has AA and none of the other draws make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont understand this at all.

you mean, if i call the flop and raise the turn, i am paying more to draw? how so? if he 3 bets the turn i'm not calling, and if i think theres a good chance he's got AA i'm not betting the river if he checks.

on the other hand, if i raise the flop and he 3 bets, i cant fold (as he would probably do this with any overpair, not just AA) unless theres heavy action behind me on a later street - so it turns out that that line costs more money than a turn raise.

the plan that i devised for this hand was what i thought was the cheapest way to get to showdown but one that still protected my hand.

quite a long time ago, a hand was posted here where the Hero held KQ and was facing a bet from a rock on k-high board. the pot was limped preflop with several people to act behind him. here, the correct play was to raise the flop , bet the turn and check the river, thereby protecting
our hand vs the field and not paying off the rock when he has a better hand. here i felt the same concept applied, but because i felt a flop raise would not offer much in the way of protection, i opted to wait until the turn.

re: the argument about giving odds to PP's calling one bet - heres why i disagree. what are the odds of the 3 people behind me even holding PP's? the odds that you'll get dealt a PP to start with are only 6.5%. thus its unlikely that even one of them has a PP, and if one does, he's still only 22:1 to hit on the turn. its much more likely that folks have random connected cards/draws/two-pair draws imo.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]

the plan that i devised for this hand was what i thought was the cheapest way to get to showdown but one that still protected my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Putting UTG on only AA (and thus affecting how you play this hand, i.e. cheap showdown) is weak, imo. And I wear real purty skirts.

[ QUOTE ]

re: the argument about giving odds to PP's calling one bet - heres why i disagree. what are the odds of the 3 people behind me even holding PP's? the odds that you'll get dealt a PP to start with are only 6.5%. thus its unlikely that even one of them has a PP, and if one does, he's still only 22:1 to hit on the turn. its much more likely that folks have random connected cards/draws/two-pair draws imo.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but pocket pairs are now probably slightly more likely to appear behind you due to the coldcalling of your preflop raise. But backdoor straight and flush draws are usually also coming along in a pot this big; add one or two of those plus one pocket pair and you've got a gaggle of idiots to charge.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand this at all.you mean, if i call the flop and raise the turn, i am paying more to draw? how so? if he 3 bets the turn i'm not calling, and if i think theres a good chance he's got AA i'm not betting the river if he checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would he 3 bet the turn with QQ or JJ? How about KK? You are certain enough that a turn 3 bet from UTG means AA, that you can fold your hand?

This is the problem I have with your line. I play at lower limits than you do, and I see erratic players that badly overplay their hands frequently. I could never trust my hand reading to tell the difference between AA and QQ in a pot this big. So I would raise the flop, cap it if UTG 3-bets, and then if UTG leads the turn, I’m calling one on the turn.

I paid 3BB. Your plan only played 2.5BB, but you didn’t see the river card and you didn’t give yourself another chance to draw out. You will only draw out on the river 1 in 22 times, but that seems to me to be worth the extra 0.5 BB in a pot this big. You also might occasionally get a free show down, if UTG does not have AA.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are certain enough that a turn 3 bet from UTG means AA, that you can fold your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

In the passive live games i play in, I would be dead certain that a turn 3-bet from UTG (or anyone else) means my kings are nowhere near good. Is this weak?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
In the passive live games i play in, I would be dead certain that a turn 3-bet from UTG (or anyone else) means my kings are nowhere near good. Is this weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against many or most opponents in my game, I would agree, but there also are some agresso-maniacs that way overplay big pocket pairs. Many of these are young, very inexperienced players or players with NL home game experience. They frequently seem to go after players who they have seen lay down hands after raising or reraising preflop or on the flop. They are especially likely to do this on a flop that AK misses. They figure you are on AK and if they just keep raising you will give up. I have almost folded several times, only to be surprised by winning the pot.

I suspect the players in Kit’s 5/10 game are more experienced than that.

The other question is, if you raise the flop, UTG 3 bets, and you cap the flop. Then UTG still leads into you on the turn, how much less certain are you that you are beat here? Do you think you can fold when UTG leads into on a apparently blank turn card after you capped the flop? If you can fold here, it only costs 2 BB.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

I think kit played it perfect.

The draws are going no where on the flop for a raise. Using his relative position to present the field with two big bets on the turn is the best play.

Great fold on the turn, as you where most likely drawing to 2 outs or dead.

Why aren't you playing higher?

Penni

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

raise this flop 110% of the time please

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

grunch

PF: good. Cap with KK always, every day, every time from here to timbuktu

FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives some draws the odds to call. One of the very important reasons for raising is make it incorrect for many draws to call.

TURN: I think raising is probably just spew.


AB

posted from my iPhone while playing 4/8 at Commerce, so sorry for typos.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

so I was chatting this hand up with several 2+2ers on AIM. several interesting points came up.

courtesty of mrwookie:

1) could it be possible that we actually want to keep some folks in this hand? think about who might fold for 2 bets on the flop but call for 1 - hands like QJ, KQ. I dont think we want these hands out unless they have a BDFD.

2)the flop is pretty ugly and if opponents are tight, they probably have overs that missed. however, if they're loose, they're more likely to have hit this flop with a draw that can profitably call 2 bets on the flop. thus in a very loose game waiting til the turn might be best.

On the other hand, JJH and BBB say that raising the flop is best:

1) equity is not likely going to change drastically based on what the next card is. thus we are forgoing too much equity by smooth calling the flop.

2) the reasoning behind #1 is that the board is quite ragged, unlike the example in p 163 of SSHE, which has a flush draw. this tilts the decision in favor of a flop raise.

FWIW i guess i still dont know what the best play here is. just throwing more ideas out there.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]


FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives draws the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure you counted your odds correctly? what draws arent getting odds to call even if i raise? the odds of hitting a gutshot are 10.5:1. if i raise i offer like 12:1. gutshots make money when i raise.

why is raising the turn spew if i'm folding to a 3 bet?

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives some draws the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure you counted your odds correctly? what draws arent getting odds to call even if i raise? the odds of hitting a gutshot are 10.5:1. if i raise i offer like 12:1. gutshots make money when i raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

You quoted me before I fixed my post - it's SOME draws ...

Gutshot and flush draws are never folding here. Calling one bet they are getting 22 to 1 or more. Reducing their odds also reduces their long term advantage.

But muuch more importantly back door draws at getting correct odds to chase here, raising makes it incorrect to chase.


[ QUOTE ]



why is raising the turn spew if i'm folding to a 3 bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. How are you offering odds to those behind you by raising? Is it because you're committing yourself to a showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the the point here is that in a big pot, hero should be trying to maximise his chances of winning the hand rather than trying to increase the amount of money in the pot for the sake of it. The theory is that he cannot protect his hand by raising the flop because anyone with a gutshot straight draw will be getting the correct odds to call and will still have the correct odds to call again when the turn comes around. On the other hand, if he waits until the turn to raise, the gutshots will now be making an arithmetical mistake when they call.
This of course assumes that UTG will in fact lead out on the turn. If he doesn't, then hero has not protected his hand by the flop call and has lost the chance to get more money in the pot if he was ahead. Of course, if UTG has AA, hero doesn't really have a hand to protect.

As an aside, do people really cold call two bets to them with hands like 65 or J10 at 5-10? Are these really likely holdings to be up against? Those are the sorts of call I run into in the micros and I always kind of assumed that they would be pretty rare at higher stakes.

Re: KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.
 

stove says calldown

472,374 games 0.188 secs 2,512,627 games/sec

Board: 9s 7h 3c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.295% 10.29% 00.00% 48630 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 57.882% 56.69% 01.19% 267810 5608.50 { TT-77, 33, JTs, 97s+, 87s, 65s }
Hand 2: 31.823% 30.64% 01.19% 144717 5608.50 { JJ-77, 33, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcJc, QcTc, JTs, 97s+, 87s, 65s, ATo }


That's giving the turn 3 bettor every suited 2 pair (so discounted 2 pairs), 2 diff straights, every set, and only one semibluff hand (TT)

The turn caller has all of those hands plus some strong draws

UTG has nothing since he folded. Anyway, it looks like you have the effective odds to calldown.

these preposterously huge pots are MEANT to be bloodbaths. Just go with it. We're playing limit hold em. Things will get messy. Just make sure to wear your seatbelt at all times, and you'll be fine. Bonne Voyage.