FTP $750K in the money
 

Hello all..
So, yesterday I played in one of the FTP's $750k sunday tournaments. I did really well for the most part and end up finishing 11 out of 4025 players and cashed out almost $8k.

The following hand came up when we were down to 11 players. At this point I did not particularly know how the remaining players at the table played because I was moved from another table. All I could observe was that there were a lot of preflop open-shovings. So after folding a decent amount of hands, I took a shot with the below hand when it was checked to me.

FullTiltPoker Game #4300563546: $750,000 Guarantee (30799714), Table 77 - 25000/50000 Ante 6000 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:06:37 ET - 2007/11/26
Seat 1: ELIA (1,337,479)
Seat 2: tschueg (963,228)
Seat 3: Tim_Rantasha (1,043,819)
Seat 7: baykut (362,213)
Seat 8: ActionAaron (945,784)
ELIA antes 6,000
tschueg antes 6,000
Tim_Rantasha antes 6,000
baykut antes 6,000
ActionAaron antes 6,000
ELIA posts the small blind of 25,000
tschueg posts the big blind of 50,000
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to baykut [Td 2h]
Tim_Rantasha folds
baykut raises to 356,213, and is all in

When I did this play I was the 11th out of 11 players. So I thought I could not any longer fold my way into higher money places considering that my M was dropping rapidly with the relatively high antes and blinds.

Harrington says that if your M is 3 and no one has entered the pot yet and you think: 1) there is a 50% chance that your remaining opponents will fold to an all-in bet and 2) you are 2-1 dog to win if you are called then; you can move all-in with a positive expectation.

I pushed because I thought there was a greater chance than 50% that the big blind would fold. I think in this spot he might be willing to call with his top 15-25 percent hands and fold the rest. As far as being a 2-1 dog; if he were to call with AKo, I think I am getting the proper odds.

Considering what Harrington says and from your experience, how would you rate my play? Would you have waited for a better spot to take a stand?

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think this is borderline. If one of the big stacks hadnt already folded I would definitely wait a hand and push as UTG, the likely improvement in your hand equity outweighing a fold from an average stack. Plus it gives your shoving range a little more credibiity because theyve seen you fold with first in vig.

With one of the big stacks folding youve improved your chances of a push making it around considerably vs an UTG push. On balance I probably fold here because I like a hand to have something more than "two live cards" potential.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

standard

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think this is a bad play. You have one of the worst hands possible. t2s, 54o, Q2o, or T7o have a significantly higher win rate. With t2o, you are 27% against of top 20% hand. I would wait for a better hand UTG. If you don't get one, I don't know if I push T2o or whatever then. However, here why not wait for the chance that you get a better hand.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not wait one more hand for a better hand? You can't get a significantly worse one.

Also, I am not sure going through the blinds is worse than shoving junk in early position. You may have a hand you can defend with in the blinds, and it will be an even easier shove shorter stack if you don't.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I think it is pretty much mandatory to shove here, ur gonna pick up the blinds and ante about half the time if not more

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i disagree with that play, i wouldve waited for one more hand.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Closish and read/gameflow dependent, if people are good it is a bad shove.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i prob wouldnt have gotten this short but thats neither here nor there. prob push next hand any 2.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

it would've been a lot better at the other table.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

terrible

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

just wait and shove UTG

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

shoving any 2 the next hand must be better.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i like it if your an average player. if your above the rim i think you can wait.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

i guess T2o iss a bad hand, but those are some big antes. i wish sngpt wud let you input any structure.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
just wait and shove UTG

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I would personally wait until I was UTG to push. T2 is just a horrible hand.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

hmm ur equity with t2o is significantly worse vs a calling range than a random hand, but does having an extra person to fold out when your utg make it that much better to wait?

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
i prob wouldnt have gotten this short but thats neither here nor there. prob push next hand any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate when people say this. What if the hand before he got AIPF with AA and got sucked out on. What if he hasn't had the ability to open a pot and hasn't had a hand he can call with.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Jeez this hand is awful. You don't even have to wait until UTG, because you can easily let the blinds pass through you.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

You would have to be facing the 3 tightest players in the universe with no concept of short stack play for t2 to be a shove here. Either that or you would have to have the tightest image in the history of harness racing.

According to mu highly proprietary push fold calculation methodology(lol), you need 22+,A2+,K9o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s ,76s
to shove

and they need

22+,A2+,K9o+,K6s+,QTo+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s to call

sheets

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

how did u figure that out? it seems too tight. the antes are huuugee.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

just went with my gut....f math

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

ahh well that range has to be too tight. no way u shud be folding Kx or Qxs

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

WOOHOOOOO I DID A "LEVEL" THINGIE....STM

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

lol owned. okay but i still disagree with your range (if u mean u were leveling about not doing math). I dont think you should be folding hands like K2o and Q2s.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Wait for a better position and a better hand. Pushing into all of the bigger stacks when you have observed aggressive shove pre-flop play you are probably going to get called by some marginal hands to say the least and your had is pretty poor. I would wait for a better hand because it cant really get much worse than the hand you have. Congrats on the finish!

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Sheets FTW with the MATH!!!

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
....Either that or you would have to have the tightest image in the history of harness racing.
sheets

[/ QUOTE ]


that's quite the esoteric reference.

don't tell me you spent your misbegotten youth at roosevelt raceway in westbury ???

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

such carmine abbatiellos

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

You were WAAAAAY off in your estimate of your fold equity, imo, so I don't like it. Only a poker snob would call your play "horrible" though. Even Harrington would at least credit you with "1 point" (Vol. III) for a play like this, but no credit for limping in--that really would be horrible.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

Even unknown players who may not be sick @ maths know because of the Harrington Vol 2 "Multiple Inflection Points" chapter that you are likely to be pushing really wide here. If they don't know the optimal range they still may just make a weird call anyway. One thing you have going for you here is that when less experienced players get close to huge money they go weak/tight sometimes.

I've even let a stack like this go to the BB if my next hand is really bad when the table is playing tight. If I get HU all in with an average or better hand from the BB, it seems way better than pushing into 3 people with not much fold equity. I just hate getting this stack in with bad values UTG or UTG + 1.

Re: FTP $750K in the money
 

I don't understand how shoving any two in next position is better. Say this hand was posted with hero as UTG and had the same hand, should we then push? Surely our pushing range should be even tigher next hand.

And does the maths take into account that even though pushing might be slightly -EV, letting the blinds pass through without pushing might be more -EV. (A certain % of the time we may have no +EV situations over the next few hands and then we have a massively reduced stack and even less FE next time we get first in vig.)

And are we seriously getting called by T9s,QTo by anyone except the BB. Surely we have decent FE here. (Though I guess the BB calling range is much wider than the figures given in sheets post.)