Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker
 

MP2 19.01/9.09/4.67,3.67,3.33 121hands

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.07.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, HERO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, HERO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (11.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, HERO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">HERO ???</font>

I'm putting him on overcards... I'm so tempted to bet for value here!!!

Bet or check? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker
 

hmmm.he's aggressive and tight, but I think overcards will check this turn UI the majority of the time. Especially after raising the flop donker.

I'd check the river.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

After 121 hands you should know by know if he's capable of being this aggressive with AK, but it looks more like the board pairing has made him scared for his overpair. I doubt you're ahead here, so just check behind.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker
 

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hmmm.he's aggressive and tight, but I think overcards will check this turn UI the majority of the time. Especially after raising the flop donker.

I'd check the river.

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But if he has over cards majority of the time, Wont' I be ahead here majority of the time?

I think this is a case when I can be getting one more bet from him since I figure I'm likely to be ahead to his overs.

Assumptions:
1) assume he'll call, since the pot is so big.
2) He'll still bet the river if he has overpairs, as he's TAG
3) He won't try to check raise me on the river, as I'm playing so passively, and his read on me would be I'd check behind him.

Hands I beat:
AK 16 hands
AQ 16 hands
AJ 16 hands
KQ 16 hands
KJ 4 hands
Total hands = 68

Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

Total no. of hands = 80

EV of last river bet = ((68/80*1)+(12/80*-1)) = 0.7BB

Does this result mean that, I'll be betting 1BB, but with an EV of 0.7BB, and that means it's actually not a good bet?

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

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I have top pair, mid kicker, and these guys' are range too wide to fold my hand to such a big pot. I didn't re-raise, cos pot's big, and it won't protect my hand. I won't wanna fold top pair mid kicker in such a big pot, against loose passives.

Anyway, pot's laying me 19.4:2, and I figure I've 4-5 outs.

I'm thinking I might be slightly ahead here, but not much pot equity, thus decided to call and see the turn. If the turn is a rag, I intend to call to SD.

So that's my answer to your question.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

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He's getting at least 10:1 with top pair and a backdoor draw. That's an easy peel even if he knew for sure that he was behind.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

Chasing 3 outers at 10:1 isn't a good long term strategy for making money.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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Chasing 3 outers

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If you want to tell me that it's overly optimistic to count this hand a 7-outer, that's cool. But let's not go to the other extreme and pretend like it's just a 3-outer either.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

Yup, I figure 4-5 outs would be good.

1.5 outs for T
1.5 outs for J
1.5 out for back door flush draw

So maybe ~9:1 pot odds

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

Don't forget the backdoor straight draw which is worth like .5-1 outs.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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Don't forget the backdoor straight draw which is worth like .5-1 outs.

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Meh. The games haven't gotten so rocky that you have to push these tiny edges. The bet and raise is good indication that if you aren't drawing dead you have kicker problems and are drawing to two pair or runner runner. Calling 2 with a hand this weak without really good reads is -EV.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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Don't forget the backdoor straight draw which is worth like .5-1 outs.

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Meh. The games haven't gotten so rocky that you have to push these tiny edges. The bet and raise is good indication that if you aren't drawing dead you have kicker problems and are drawing to two pair or runner runner. Calling 2 with a hand this weak without really good reads is -EV.

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Yeah. When it's otherwise close, fold for two.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

3-bet the flop?

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

I fold the flop when it's bet and raised in front of me.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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3-bet the flop?

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... to find out where I'm standing? And fold to a cap? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

Well, actually I'm trying to apply what I learnt in SSHE, where when counting outs, back door draws can turn a folding hand, into one which you can peel. And I'm doing that here. If there's no back door outs, I would have folded.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

uhhh, these backdoor outs shouldn't be counted for even half an out.

to start with, it is a 2-gapper which comes in some stupidly small percentage of the time. i think it's around 1.5%.

a theoretical one card draw will come in slightly less that 5% of the time, so a draw that comes in 1.5% of the time is woth significantly less that one out.

secondly, this isn't even a genuine 2-gapper, it is a 1 card 2-gapper which means that you will have limited implied odds if you do hit it (because it looks so obvious) and there is a much higher chance of splitting the pot.

3rdly, it's not even to the nuts.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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After 121 hands you should know by know if he's capable of being this aggressive with AK, but it looks more like the board pairing has made him scared for his overpair. I doubt you're ahead here, so just check behind.

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orly? I disagree. Look at MP2s stats, especially his aggro factos...this guy is SO betting the river if he has an overpair. I think there is value in betting this river...you might get a curiousity call with AK, 88, 99 etc

did you bet and he CRed?

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Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

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as I mentioned....I think he bets all of these hands on the river. I know i would in his spot and his aggro is higher than mine. Maybe his aggro is high because he folds too much or when he has A high. Mav, any reads on his Showdown standards?

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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3-bet the flop?

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... to find out where I'm standing? And fold to a cap? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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no. i was being serious...
it seems that this is an auto-raise for villain, and you can easily have the best hand on the flop.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kick
 

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After 121 hands you should know by know if he's capable of being this aggressive with AK, but it looks more like the board pairing has made him scared for his overpair. I doubt you're ahead here, so just check behind.

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orly? I disagree. Look at MP2s stats, especially his aggro factos...this guy is SO betting the river if he has an overpair. I think there is value in betting this river...you might get a curiousity call with AK, 88, 99 etc

did you bet and he CRed?

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Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

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as I mentioned....I think he bets all of these hands on the river. I know i would in his spot and his aggro is higher than mine. Maybe his aggro is high because he folds too much or when he has A high. Mav, any reads on his Showdown standards?

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This is a spot which I must discuss and understand thoroughly. It is one BB which I will be able to earn in future, similar encounters.

Ozi, his stats:
went to SD = 34.48%
Won $ at SD = 50.0%

Any I would like to understand, why would he folding too much cos his aggro to be high? I thought aggressiveness is a function of the no. of times he raise or open bets? And how has aggresiveness gotta do when he has A high?

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker
 

I would check behind on the river here. I think we are getting check raised far more often here than we are getting called by a worse hand. Look at the villians actions on the earlier streets. He raises PF with what most likely is a good hand TT+, AQo+? He raises the flop. This can be either because he has an overpair and hes running protection or he has UI overcards and wants a freecard. Well his action on the turn makes the freecard play unlikely so we have to give him credit most of the time for a made hand. On the river I think villian is either A. trying to get max value you from you or B. taking a weak line because you might have been calling down with a 4. Either way I don't think betting here is +EV given villians action.

Re: Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker
 

Maverick, with those SD stats i bet this is betting alot rather than folding too much.

To anyone fearing a checkraise, why is that? all OP has done is call call call. Villians play on every street is exactly how some tags/2+2ers play AK, AQ, AJs etc. We have no read to say this guy will get fancy here....If he has AA-TT he IS betting this river 99% of the time. Dont let him showdown for free....bet and make him make an agonising call w AdKs just to make sure you arent bluffing him in a huge pot...after all...he only has to win with A high a very small percentage of the time, right? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Blzd, your all over the place with that post but specifically...

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Well his action on the turn makes the freecard play unlikely so we have to give him credit most of the time for a made hand

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when hands are 3 handed like this people in the micros have been known to give advice to fire one last barrel and bet the turn in this spot, especially if villian (in this case OP) is known to be tight and able to fold.