XM and Sirius to merge.
 

So much for competition in the satelite markets. Don't know what it means for the customers.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/...us-talks_x.htm

Doesn't really bother me all that much. I have Sirius. Hopefully this "monopoly" doesn't increase the price.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

I have Sirius, and I'm hoping beyond hope that this means we get MLB.

I can't imagine that the subscription price would go up. The intent of the merger is to REDUCE costs.

(Glad I checked the front page one last time before starting a duplicate thread.)

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

why are there quotes around monopoly?

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The intent of the merger is to REDUCE costs.


[/ QUOTE ]

To the company, or to the consumer? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

b

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
why are there quotes around monopoly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there are dozens of other competitors, standard free radio, CDs, and ipods for your drive to work, and even more if you use satellite radio in your home.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine that the subscription price would go up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to remember the last time industry consolidation was actually beneficial to the consumer, price-wise.

This might take a while.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

Actually, the subscription price is such a bargain now, I wouldn't mind an increase. If the price doubled tomorrow, I'd still pay.

Of course, almost nobody else feels that way, so if the price doubled tomorrow, the customers would flee and industry would fold.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

If you bought a subscription for a couple of years and the price goes up, you're not screwed, right? You don't owe them more money?

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

There are only about a million things that could either a) derail this deal, or b) make it not beneficial to customers.

For one thing, your current XM & Sirius head units are incompatible, and will not be able to receive transmissions from the other, under any circumstances.

Two, there are major antitrust implications here. Unless both companies can show that both will end up going out of business without a merger, it is highly unlikely this deal can pass antitrust muster (regardless of what the FCC says).

I hold shares in both companies (and am down a lot on XM, only down about 15% in Sirius), so I kinda hope it does go through, but I'm not holding my breath.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine that the subscription price would go up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to remember the last time industry consolidation was actually beneficial to the consumer, price-wise.

This might take a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Consolidation can be good if it involves removing duplicative costs. In this case the heavy overhead of two satellite systems and two technology standards can (gradually) be lessoned. But even more so, the heavy marketing costs of signing talent in bidding wars will reduce costs. My guess is they won't need to raise rates for a while, just rationalizing marketing & R&D costs will save them a bunch of money.

Remember these companies are still losing money hand over fist. There will eventually be one satellite radio company, either through merger or bankruptcy.

It's not even clear this merger will save them. They still have to compete against "free" radio in the car, IPODs everywhere, and internet radio in the office. When cities start rolling out WiMax, they'll have to fight internet radio in the car as well.

As a Sirius customer I'm excited about this merger (assuming they can get FCC approval) because it will mean better programming (I'll be able to get all sports events). If it ends up costing me a little more in subscription fees I'll still be happy.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]

For one thing, your current XM & Sirius head units are incompatible, and will not be able to receive transmissions from the other, under any circumstances.


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That doesn't matter, it means they'll have to pick one system as the future system and new users will only be able to buy one type of head units, but they'll still keep the old satellites running and provide all the same programming on both systems.

[ QUOTE ]

Two, there are major antitrust implications here. Unless both companies can show that both will end up going out of business without a merger, it is highly unlikely this deal can pass antitrust muster (regardless of what the FCC says).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the other problem, but neither of these money losing companies can continue successfully without being subsidized by more investors. I believe that's going to greatly help their antitrust case.

And I have a theory that if necessary they'll spin out the satellite management business from one entity (Sirius?) and make it a separate company. Then they can merge the entertainment side of Sirius (with all the programming contracts) into XM, while XM signs a long term deal with Sirius Satellite Services to maintain the old satellites. The FCC won't be able say squat about that, since one company won't own both sets of satellites.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

I don't have a satellite radio unit yet.

Does this mean I would probably be wise to hold off for a little bit because new units might be required to receive all the channels?

I was at Wal-Mart last week mostly buying groceries. But I walked past the little sat-radio disaply and threw one in my cart.
But the scanner thing didn't go through when I tried to check-out so I just told the cashier to 'forget it, will get it next time.'

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hold shares in both companies (and am down a lot on XM, only down about 15% in Sirius), so I kinda hope it does go through, but I'm not holding my breath.

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Lucky you. I bought SIRI @ 7.50. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Good thing I'm small potatoes...

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

wow im actually pretty shocked right now that this happened so soon. I figured it would happen a couple years down the road out of desperation. I have stock in sirius i wonder whats in store for these stocks tommorow. There was a nice run up a month or so back when speculation was ramping up that a merger could be possible, but then the stocks fell back down after it seemed it woul not be possible. Def should make for an interesting Stern show tommorow morning

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

Well, I'd bought my XMSR at a dollar cost average of $33....

Still, if the markets think that the merger *will* go through, maybe SIRI can hit $6 or so before the merger closing, and I can recover $25 or so for my XMSR (and I'd be well up on SIRI by that time, since I'm in at $4.40.)

For what it's worth, I ran into the same situation with CORV/BWNG being bought out by LVLT (owning shares in both companies). After years, I'm finally in the black in both. And if the merger *is* successful, the combined entity will eventually be worth more per share than what I'm into on both.

My total $$$ investment in both isn't more than about $15,000, though.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

yeah im in dollar cost average on sirius at 3.40 so im already up a little on it, but wouldnt mind a nice spike up.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

The market is going to see this as a good play for both companies. My numbers are a wild a$$ guess, but a 10% pop in SIRI tomorrow wouldn't be out of the question. And, becuase the merger agreement is for a set nunber of shares of SIRI for each share of XMSR (4.6:1, I believe), you'll see XMSR jump up tomorrow to a point where it's trading around 4.6x SIRI's share price, and stay in that general area.

While the merger's pending, unless and until it's either shot down or approved, you should see the two stocks tracking very similar to one another at that 4.6:1 rate. Right now, that would put XMSR around $17.50, give or take.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

interesting i sold my siri shares before they they dipped these last few months maybe i should have kept them now

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

That depends. Did you sell them at a profit? If so, no reason to regret having sold them, but I wouldn't try to chase the imminent move up, now.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why are there quotes around monopoly?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there are dozens of other competitors, standard free radio, CDs, and ipods for your drive to work, and even more if you use satellite radio in your home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, standard radio has all the same competitors, but it's still illegal for one company to own all the radio stations.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

I don't see how the FCC could possibly approve this merger.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

All you people saying this will raise prices; I really disagree.

There are so many substitutes to Satellite Radio that they'll be vastly more profitable by providing their service at a low price.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

The NYT breaks down the merger here

The other press I've read today indicate that pricing would stay the same or go down.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

It's not a monopoly when you have only 10 million or so subscribers between the two. It's not like they're selling oil, they've got plenty of competition from other sources.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

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It's not a monopoly when you have only 10 million or so subscribers between the two. It's not like they're selling oil, they've got plenty of competition from other sources.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not really relevant here. Certainly regular radio, CDs, etc., are imperfect substitutes for satellite radio. But they're not the same, and the fact that they charge $150/year when radio is free is powerful evidence of the fact that satellite radio is its own market.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's not a monopoly when you have only 10 million or so subscribers between the two. It's not like they're selling oil, they've got plenty of competition from other sources.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a monopoly when you have 100% of the market. The size of that market does not matter. The market, in this case, is satellite radio. The companies will argue that their correct market is all forms of radio, and they may be determined to be correct -- but that is far from a certainty.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a satellite radio unit yet.

Does this mean I would probably be wise to hold off for a little bit because new units might be required to receive all the channels?

I was at Wal-Mart last week mostly buying groceries. But I walked past the little sat-radio disaply and threw one in my cart.
But the scanner thing didn't go through when I tried to check-out so I just told the cashier to 'forget it, will get it next time.'

[/ QUOTE ]

I read in one of the articles today that they are currently working on a receiver that will receive both XM and Sirius channels, as even if the merger goes through XM can't get Sirius and vice versa.

They are also working on a way that the current receivers could possibly receive some of the programming from the other service, but i'm not sure if they have figured out a good way of doing that yet.

If you really want satellite radio, I'd go ahead and buy it as it will be awhile before the merger gets approved/rejected. If it goes through, you might have to buy a new receiver to get everything you want. If you aren't in a hurry, waiting won't cost you anything.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

This merger doesn't go far. I say just nationalize it and make it free. Tax payers footed the bill for the research that went into the technology they are using anyway.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
This merger doesn't go far. I say just nationalize it and make it free. Tax payers footed the bill for the research that went into the technology they are using anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would kill it. The government isn't going to pay Howard Stern $100M a year, and they'll censor the crap out of it. It will be about as appealing as PBS.

BTW, U.S. taxpayers didn't pay for the startup research. German taxpayers footed the bill, then we bombed them into submission and took their scientists and research. So we're free-rolling here.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

[ QUOTE ]
This merger doesn't go far. I say just nationalize it and make it free. Tax payers footed the bill for the research that went into the technology they are using anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um no.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

speaking of sirius anybody been listening to the billy west spotlight? the raymond burr bit had me kneeled over.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

surfinillini to the thread, surfinillini to the thread for comments, thank you.

There may be hope yet for your stock.

Re: XM and Sirius to merge.
 

In order for both companies to survive, I thought this was necessary, gonna be crazy with all the Howie/Opie and Anthony stuff. As an XM subscriber, I look forward to all of this. And think I may just pull an all nighter to hear them in 2 hours.