2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

2/4 B&M, 10 players, loose & passive

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 4 coldcallers, SB completes, BB calls

Flop (7 players, 14 SB): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
checked to Hero who checks, EP bets, 3 LP callers, Hero calls (getting 18:1, I think I can peel here)

Turn (5 players, 9.5 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, EP bets, 2 LP callers, Hero?

The two LP callers aren't total retards so I'm assuming at least one of them has a club. How do I count my outs here? My two 9 outs are pretty solid but how many do I count for my club outs? I'm getting 12.5:1; easy call and nothing to discuss here?

GcluelessnoobG

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

pf = good
flop = good peel. without the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you'd have to fold

I don't think you can call the turn. You have three opponents remaining who hold 6 (albeit somewhat random) cards. There are four single clubs that crush your draw. Also, anybody with a made flush kills your 9s as outs, and likely even beats your flush draw.

Admittedly you could have as many as 11 outs, but I think they need to be discounted very, very heavily. EP just kept betting when the flush came in, and the callers aren't total retards; somebody has a flush card bigger than you. I'd just fold and not watch the river.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

This isn't really an answer, but have you considered removing the rake when you count the pot? I do at 6/12 and 8/16 where the rake is less severe. At 2/4, assuming a $4 rake and a $1 tip, there's 2.5 SB less that you're playing for. It may occasionally make the difference between a profitable and an unprofitable call.

I guess I should take a stab at an actual answer.

I'm seriously discounting my outs on the flop, enough that I wouldn't peel -- especially after removing the rake and reducing our odds to 15.5:1.

I'm folding the turn too -- you don't have much in the way of implied odds as you can't really overcall even a single caller if a club hits the river.

Making a fairly safe assumption that our 9's are no good, our possible scenarios are...

1. Drawing dead to a made flush T or better (some of the middle ones will not raise at a passive table).
2. 1 or more higher clubs out, drawing to two outs.
3. your opponents hold no clubs, just aces and jacks, drawing to 11 outs.
4. your opponents hold some number of your club outs but you still hold the highest one, and you're drawing to 5-10 outs.

I'm going to pull some numbers out of thin air and say that 20% of the time you're drawing dead, 50% of the time you're facing a bigger club, 10% of the time you're drawing to 11 outs, and 20% of the time you're drawing to an average of 7 outs.

That's like 3.5 outs, which I guess is enough to continue if you believe the seat of the pants numbers. You can't really make any money on the river, but we might have a sufficiently bloated pot that we don't need to. Maybe this is why I wanted to fold the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

My assumption of a good flop peel was based on the 18:1 number. If it's actually more like 15.5:1, which appears to be the case, I'm dumping on the flop as well.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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My assumption of a good flop peel was based on the 18:1 number. If it's actually more like 15.5:1, which appears to be the case, I'm dumping on the flop as well.

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Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

Also, if you river a club, really the only good result is the hand checking around. If EP can keep betting, there's a good chance he has a strong flush. If a later position player bets, then you still have to worry about the small chance of a disastrous check-raise behind you.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't really an answer, but have you considered removing the rake when you count the pot? I do at 6/12 and 8/16 where the rake is less severe. At 2/4, assuming a $4 rake and a $1 tip, there's 2.5 SB less that you're playing for. It may occasionally make the difference between a profitable and an unprofitable call.

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Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

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Um.... depends on your stakes and rake and tip? $4 rake + $1 tip is 2.5 SB at 2/4. At 6/12, it's 5/6 of a bet, which I usually just approximate to 1 SB unless the SB folds in which case it's easy to figure out the exact pot size. The rake and tip are what they are; maybe I don't understand your question, but I don't know why you're asking about an "average pot size."

Oh, unless you're thinking of those 10% raked games with a rake cap. Where I play, it's a fixed $4 rake. Hopefully your game is good enough that the pots get large enough to hit the rake cap.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

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Um.... depends on your stakes and rake and tip? $4 rake + $1 tip is 2.5 SB at 2/4. At 6/12, it's 5/6 of a bet, which I usually just approximate to 1 SB unless the SB folds in which case it's easy to figure out the exact pot size. The rake and tip are what they are; maybe I don't understand your question, but I don't know why you're asking about an "average pot size."

Oh, unless you're thinking of those 10% raked games with a rake cap. Where I play, it's a fixed $4 rake. Hopefully your game is good enough that the pots get large enough to hit the rake cap.

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I'm trying to remember the last time I saw a pot at Canterbury that didn't hit the rake cap.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

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Why? My two 9 outs are pretty clean, I only have to make up 2 BB (if ignoring rake/etc.) which I'm sure to do if I hit. Are we folding due to chance of hitting 9 on turn but then seeing a club on river?

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

Note that I haven't been taking into account rake/jackpot/tip at my 2/4 table other than rounding down my turn count of BB. Could this be considered a bad leak?

Also, for those who advocate folding the flop getting, say, 16:1. Don't you think I could make up 3 BB against 4 opponents, closing the action and being in perfect position for a checkraise trapping the field?

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

It's pretty close. Every once in a while you are going to hit and still lose. You can be up against a flush draw that comes in on the river. The 9 could make someone with T8 a straight. The bettor could have just called your pre-flop raise with JJ. AJ could fill on the river.

These are rare events (well, the flush hitting isn't), but you're so close on the odds that it makes the flop call very marginal. It can't be a huge leak, but its probably a tiny loss. Honestly, I probably make the same peel.

As played, I think you have to fold the turn. Someone almost has to have a bigger club.

[ QUOTE ]
Note that I haven't been taking into account rake/jackpot/tip at my 2/4 table other than rounding down my turn count of BB. Could this be considered a bad leak?

Also, for those who advocate folding the flop getting, say, 16:1. Don't you think I could make up 3 BB against 4 opponents, closing the action and being in perfect position for a checkraise trapping the field?

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Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

If a club comes on the river and it gets bet to you, are you going to fold?

You are going lose another river bet with this hand most of the time a club comes. Your pot odds need to include that extra bet you are likely to lose.

I think its going to be pretty rare that the 9c is the best hand after 3 other people put money in on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

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Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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I think its going to be pretty rare that the 9c is the best hand after 3 other people put money in on the turn.

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That was my thinking too and why I folded the turn (that and having to pay off another BB to a bigger club if one fell).

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

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Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

So people are folding this flop with 2 pretty clean outs if they're getting 22:1? 25:1? 30:1? I didn't realize someone betting this flop with a few callers meant that someone had flopped a set of A's or J's.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

gobb, you know what i mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] we don't have anything close to 22:1 here. if i had kings or queens with the club i'd be more liable to peel since i'd have two backdoor draws both to the nuts. here, even if we runner runner a flush we are not likely to be good that often.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

To sum this up...there are plenty of situations in low stakes limit holdem where you can gamboool with an edge. In this case, calling on the flop is gambling without an edge, or possibly even at a disadvantage. Save the frustration and move on.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

I think a peel is fine on the flop. The 2 outs to trips are squeaky clean, and while the BDFD is a weak one, the 9 doesn't need to be good very often to add the very small amount of value you need.

I think you do need to be on the ball if and when the flush comes in, any mistakes at that stage erase your value in call.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

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I think you may. "May," I stress. Your calculation for 3 outs no doubt ran something like this: 46/3 or 43:3 or 14.3-1. Getting 12.5-1 can you make up 2 big bets and show a 1/6 of a BB profit? is the question. Dunno. Like MtnDrew said, can you really bet out if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits or expect one of the others to bet a worse [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for you? If you discount your outs to 3.5 you need to 12-1 from the pot to carry on profitably, which you are getting. Can you really expect to accurately gauge in the heat of battle whether you have 3 or 3.5 discounted outs? If you can, you play better than me (but then alot of people do).

Bottom line: I think calling the turn shows a very slight profit over time and I would consider doing it if it helped me to not look like a folder.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

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gobb, you know what i mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] we don't have anything close to 22:1 here.

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please google implied odds, the hero is on the come - if he hits he will make up the missing bets +++. Hero can easily make 2BB on the turn and river if he hits on the following street. Pots too large, folding is a mistake. Peel and fold liberally on the following street without a set. The 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only gives the hero a redraw as a backup plan in the event the set fails or the turn checks through, too many players to actually rely on a backdoor club draw as a winner.

Re: 2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?
 

cool thanks i'll look em up