400NL Argh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
Villain is 18/8/1.6 over 100 hands or so and more or less unknown.
Ongame Poker No Limit Hold'Em, $2/$4 (8 handed). SB ($394) BB ($339) UTG ($405) Villain/UTG+1 ($394) MP1 ($340) MP2 ($377) CO ($188) Hero/BTN ($465) Preflop: Hero is BTN with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG folds, Villain raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, 2 folds, Villain calls. Flop: ($86) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) Villain checks, Hero bets $70, Villain calls. Turn: ($226) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) Villain bets $284 and is all-in. Hero? WTF? Up until this push on the turn, I figured Villain for a pair in the 99-KK range. I thought AK was less likely for obvious reasons, although clearly not impossible. Anyway, I’m left with two moves on the turn, but which one’s better? Does the fact I don’t have the Ac make a difference? |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Call, preflop sucks.
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
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Call, preflop sucks. [/ QUOTE ] Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
PF sucked cos it was basically a min raise. His range to call a min raise is huge, and it includes SC's and small PP's, which could have u crushed at this point.
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
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Call, preflop sucks. [/ QUOTE ] Raise more preflop. |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something...
Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards... |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
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Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something... Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards... [/ QUOTE ] I don't think your avg. villian goes broke with 99 here on a 2,7,8 flop when you minraise pre. If you minraise pre and are going to felt any flop and it only costs him $28 then he should call with anything he raises PF. |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
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Really? So if the range is between doubling his raise (ie another $28, making it $46 to go) or raising the pot (ie another $42, making it $60 to go), what's standard? I've clearly been missing something... Incidentally, I don't think a player with these numbers is raising in EP w small pairs or SCs. If that is the case, and he has a pair in the 99-KK range, doesn't it make more sense to err on the low side of the raise size to make sure we keep him in a hand that he could easily go broke on with a flop of undercards... [/ QUOTE ] Usually triple or quadruple their bet size. I think you're underestimating his raising range. 18/8 probably raises some small pocket pairs in EP. Suited connectors are less likely, but big suited cards are quite possible. 100 hands is not a very large sample, either. FWIW, I think you're toast on the turn, although smaller overpairs with one club could be in his range. |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Think of it like this: Your preflop raise is $22 to call and the effective remaining stacks are $354. In that case I'm taking a flop with all pairs, all suited connectors and suited gappers and probably non-suited connectors. Actually there are few hands I'm folding TBH.
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn!
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Err, right. Anyone who fancies adding some reasoning is very welcome to post. I do suck, but I'd like to know why... [/ QUOTE ] Your 3 bet is to small because it gives the villain a chance to call with a large range, in hopes he will stack you. Your 3 bet should have been somewhere between $60-$70 |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
The preflop raise is a little small IMO also. However, that isn't the question you put out in this hand, so I want to focus on the original question...do you call in this spot?
I think this is a pretty easy and straightforward fold. We really don't beat much and have no chance to improve (only an Ah really helps us safely). What hands is a villain making this bet with... he's either betting big to protect his hand (a made small flush that he doesn't want you to draw against). Or is betting with a large amount of outs against us (around 13+ with a club draw and some pair/piece of the board). It is highly unlikely he would bet a pair here without at least having the club...and even the 2c is good enough. So even when we are ahead now, we can expect to lose 1 in 4. Because we can assume we are losing every time we are behind (due to the in ability to improve), we have to be good 2/3 of the time for this to be a break even bet. Me personally I think it is more accurate that we are behind 2/3 of the time here as opposed to ahead 2/3 of the time. |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Very nice analysis, mate. I basically agree and, although I'm not sure I managed to get to quite that level of detail in the 20 seconds allowed, I folded.
p.s. Note to self: Increase re-raise size to decrease the number of difficult decisions like this. |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
As you now see you could make your post-flop decisions so much easier here by raising to say $65 preflop. If villain calls there is around $134 in the pot on the flop and around $330 left to play for. Assuming you continuation bet for around $100 (which you should) then you have a no brainer call if he pushes because you are well beyond the commitment threshold.
If he pushes, the math of it is that you have to call around $230 to play for a final pot of approximately $790 thus you have to win showdown 29% of the time to break even. No problem at all with AA played this way and you don't even have to get to a difficult turn card before the money is in the middle [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
This is still a call guys. The only hand that makes sense that beats us is TT. Flush draws are jamming the flop. Sets don't play like this. You are looking a pair with a club here almost all the time. If any of you can provide me with a reasonable range that says we are beat then feel free, until then its a call. I'd make it $52-56 preflop.
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
I don't really think this is a "reasonable" range, but it does beat us. You're getting 1.8:1 on the call, so you need about 36% equity, and you only have 20% against this range:
Board: 3c 5s 2c Tc Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.102% 18.89% 01.21% 482 31.00 { AhAs } Hand 1: 79.898% 78.68% 01.21% 2008 31.00 { KK+, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, TT, 55, 33-22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, A4s, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, 64s, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, A4o, 64o } |
Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
Villains shove range here is pretty big imo because your line screams AA/KK. Id probly call and deffinately 3bet larger pre.
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Re: Aaargghh - AA on the button and some idiot just shoved on the turn
call
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