IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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OECD warns against biofuels subsidies
By Andrew Bounds in Brussels
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Published: September 10 2007 22:28 | Last updated: September 10 2007 22:28
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Governments need to scrap subsidies for biofuels, as the current rush to support alternative energy sources will lead to surging food prices and the potential destruction of natural habitats, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will warn on Tuesday.


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politicians can NOW be given an EASY out to REDUCE subsidies on IOWA FARMLAND omg!

Barron

PS- evan, ahnuld, you can move/lock/delete if you want but i thought it would be a funny post for regular readers of this forum [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

LMFAO.........SELL!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]:)

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Dcifr--here is the thing.........CORN is not going to be the major source for ethanol longterm.........just for the next 2-5 years before more and more NON-FOOD sources are used. However, corn is the best source worldwide at the present time........it's a sounding board for the future of the industry.

In the meantime, Iowa farmland will continue to move up in price during this time......and will peak during this time before seeing a significant decline. The earliest i see this happening is the fall of 2009........by which time many who invested in this land will have profited.

-FH-

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Why has farmland become such a joke? Who on this forums has the balls to short it right now? Regardless of your disdain for booms, going against farmland would be a worse decision than entering shorts into tech in the late '90s -- you'll lose your all your funds before you are finally right. All of the people who cleaned up in 2001 simply got lucky that Nasdaq didn't go to 10k and last another 3 year like it did for the earlier topcallers.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Why has farmland become such a joke? Who on this forums has the balls to short it right now? Regardless of your disdain for booms, going against farmland would be a worse decision than entering shorts into tech in the late '90s -- you'll lose your all your funds before you are finally right.

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Very, very well stated.........agree 100%.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Why has farmland become such a joke? Who on this forums has the balls to short it right now? Regardless of your disdain for booms, going against farmland would be a worse decision than entering shorts into tech in the late '90s -- you'll lose your all your funds before you are finally right. All of the people who cleaned up in 2001 simply got lucky that Nasdaq didn't go to 10k and last another 3 year like it did for the earlier topcallers.

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my post was a jab at fishhead and the approach he took to introduce iowa farmland. farmland isn't going anywhere. global demand for biofuels is only one aspect of it.

there is only a limited number of acres and only a certain amount of stuff can be planted on them. be it corn for food or fuel, grains, or cattle, 1 acre of land is just 1 acre of land, productivity increases accounted for.

Barron

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Good points Mr. Dcifr.........

Many may not believe this, buy my sole purpose for introducing this investment on this forum was to possibly help some of the posters here in considering this as a possible investment into their portfolios..........

There is no motive from me on this front then my attempt to simply help the great posters of this site(whether they agree or disagree with me)...........as so many have helped me over the years in so many different aspects.

I'm sure many of the usual stalkers of yours truly will eventually show up in this thread to "trash talk" in someway .........but its all good.

I sincerely hope we ALL can profit from one another on this great site...........and not just financially.

Again, thanks to all those that have contributed to this forum........keep the education coming.

-FH-

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Why has farmland become such a joke? Who on this forums has the balls to short it right now? Regardless of your disdain for booms, going against farmland would be a worse decision than entering shorts into tech in the late '90s -- you'll lose your all your funds before you are finally right.

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Very, very well stated.........agree 100%.

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you AGREE!?!?!?

http://www.aggieballer.com/pictures/.../surprised.jpg

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Are we more worried about the price of popcorn at a movie theater than we are about energy security in this country???

I sincerely hope not.

-FH-

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Are we more worried about the price of popcorn at a movie theater than we are about energy security in this country???

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Hold on now, what's going to happen to the price of popcorn?!


[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Dont panic, most of the popcorn from Iowa is bought by JOLLY POP........junk compared to Orville Redneck.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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LMFAO.........SELL!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]:)

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At least you have a sense of humor fishhead! I am always willing to engage someone in conversation when they can be passionate about something but also maintain a comedic side.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Are we more worried about the price of popcorn at a movie theater than we are about energy security in this country???

I sincerely hope not.

-FH-

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I always laugh when I hear the security argument. Oil is produced all over the world and producer economies are dependant upon selling as much as possible. The market is also fungible, Iran cant sell only to Europe without freeing up more oil to be shipped to us. If oil were truly scarce it wouldn't be so cheap on international markets. If the US really wanted cheap oil we would go back to the balanced budgets of the Clinton era, the dollar would go back to being worth more than the euro and oil would then only be $40 per barrel.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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If the US really wanted cheap oil we would go back to the balanced budgets of the Clinton era,

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WTF??

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

I don't get it. The thesis is that Iowa's interests are about 97815x as important as anyone else's in the eyes of politicians, because Iowa holds the first caucuses.

How is the recommendation of an organization in Paris, France related to that?

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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I don't get it. The thesis is that Iowa's interests are about 97815x as important as anyone else's in the eyes of politicians, because Iowa holds the first caucuses.

How is the recommendation of an organization in Paris, France related to that?

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Good points actually........and exactly one of the reasons farmland in Iowa will be a safe investment up until the Nov/08 election.....at the very, very least.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Are we more worried about the price of popcorn at a movie theater than we are about energy security in this country???

I sincerely hope not.

-FH-

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I always laugh when I hear the security argument. Oil is produced all over the world and producer economies are dependant upon selling as much as possible. The market is also fungible, Iran cant sell only to Europe without freeing up more oil to be shipped to us. If oil were truly scarce it wouldn't be so cheap on international markets. If the US really wanted cheap oil we would go back to the balanced budgets of the Clinton era, the dollar would go back to being worth more than the euro and oil would then only be $40 per barrel.

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do you think the fiscal budget or the balance of payments has a larger impact on the strength of the dollar?

Barron

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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do you think the fiscal budget or the balance of payments has a larger impact on the strength of the dollar?

Barron

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I think the fiscal deficit helps drives the balance of payment deficit by attracting foreign cash flows to U.S. treasuries, i.e. they aren't buying our goods with the dollars we send them, they are reinvesting them in U.S treasuries because we are borrowing huge amounts of money. This balance of payments deficit helps drive the devaluation of the dollar.

Jimbo,

I didn't write those words because I was a big fan of Clinton. The balanced budgets we had during his administration were partially the responsibility of a Republican congress fighting his spending proposals. During that period the U.S. dollar was very strong. But during Bush's administration we abandoned all semblence of fiscal responsibility, in part because there was no counterbalancing force in congress. IMHO of course.

But regardless of the factors driving the U.S. dollar, the result is very clear. When the Euro was introduced a dollar could buy 0.75 Euros. Throughout the remainder of Clinton's administration the dollar increased in value vs. the Euro. By Nov. 2000 (GW Bushes election), a dollar could buy 1.17 Euros. Today a dollar buys 0.73 Euros. The devaluation of the dollar has added roughly $25 per barrel (over 1/3) to our imported oil prices by itself since the end of 2000.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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do you think the fiscal budget or the balance of payments has a larger impact on the strength of the dollar?

Barron

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I think the fiscal deficit helps drives the balance of payment deficit by attracting foreign cash flows to U.S. treasuries, i.e. they aren't buying our goods with the dollars we send them, they are reinvesting them in U.S treasuries because we are borrowing huge amounts of money. This balance of payments deficit helps drive the devaluation of the dollar.

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but if you decompose the BoP you see net exports being the main driver. the growth and unheard of productivity increases during the clinton era (which attracted a TON of capital to equity and non govt debt markets and allowed us to import so much) allowed for balanced budgets due to ever growing tax receipts. fiscal responsibility did go out the window w/ 911 and iraq and tax cuts and the prescription drug benefits package, but the dollar weakness can only be partly (imo at most 35%) explained by fiscal budgets. and in terms of flows that 35% may be WAAAAAAYYYY an over estimate.

Barron

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

Hope everybody is seeing what the soybean market has done in recent weeks/months.

Forget corn, beans are on fire!

Iowa farmland produces soybeans in abundance also.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Jimbo,

I didn't write those words because I was a big fan of Clinton. The balanced budgets we had during his administration were partially the responsibility of a Republican congress fighting his spending proposals. During that period the U.S. dollar was very strong. But during Bush's administration we abandoned all semblence of fiscal responsibility, in part because there was no counterbalancing force in congress. IMHO of course.



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Desert Cat,

IMHO and in fact the opinion of scholars a lot smarter than me believe it was the Regan administraion who was predominately responsilbe for the boom during the Clinton administration. The Republican controlled congress and Clinton were minor players in the end result.

Now if you had longed for the good old ways of the Reagan administration I wouldn't have said a word. Bush Sr. did a terrible job in regards to fiscal responsibility. Bush jr has had much bigger fish to fry yet the economy recovered remarkably fast after the devestating effects of 911.


Jimbo

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Desert Cat,

IMHO and in fact the opinion of scholars a lot smarter than me believe it was the Regan administraion who was predominately responsilbe for the boom during the Clinton administration. The Republican controlled congress and Clinton were minor players in the end result.


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I assume you're referring to the end of the cold war? Or are you trying to say Reagan invented the internet?

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Now if you had longed for the good old ways of the Reagan administration I wouldn't have said a word. Bush Sr. did a terrible job in regards to fiscal responsibility. Bush jr has had much bigger fish to fry yet the economy recovered remarkably fast after the devestating effects of 911.

Jimbo

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What devastating effects of 9/11? From a macroeconomic standpoint, it was a minor event. It was the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the recession that followed that the economy recovered from. And the recovery had very little to do with the fiscal policy of the Bush Administration and everything to do with the economic cycle and historically low interest rates, for which we're paying a price right now.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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I assume you're referring to the end of the cold war? Or are you trying to say Reagan invented the internet?


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Everyone knows Al Gore invented the internet (as well as global warming). Yes both the end of the cold war and lowering marginal tax rates were his major contributions.

Jimbo

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

This is getting insane.........look at the cash grain prices today!!

Wheat, corn, and soybeans have all moved up dramatically...........where will this bull market ends is anyones guess at this point.


Other Commodities Price Change High Low Settle Last Update †
Corn (CBT)
December 07 (cents per bu.) 351.75 +10.50 358.75 338.50 341.25 9/12 1:18pm


Soybeans (CBT)
November 07 (cents per bu.) 945.50 +25.00 959.50 921.00 918.00 9/12 1:18pm

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

too bad all your money is in farmland...

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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too bad all your money is in farmland...

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........FARMLAND PRICES are directly influenced by grain prices.........especially those of corn and soybeans in the state of Iowa. In fact, it is probably the #1 factor of all factors involved in evaluating farmland prices.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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too bad all your money is in farmland...

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FARMLAND PRICES are directly influenced by grain prices.........especially those of corn and soybeans in the state of Iowa. In fact, it is probably the #1 factor of all factors involved in evaluating farmland prices.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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I don't get it. The thesis is that Iowa's interests are about 97815x as important as anyone else's in the eyes of politicians, because Iowa holds the first caucuses.

How is the recommendation of an organization in Paris, France related to that?

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Good points actually........and exactly one of the reasons farmland in Iowa will be a safe investment up until the Nov/08 election.....at the very, very least.

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Well at least until the caucuses! November would depend on whether it is a swing state because lots of states become equal after summer 2008. But of course Congress is full of guys who want to run for President in 2012.

I would never know enough to invest in farmland, but I've owned DE and ADM for awhile now, although I think I may take profits soon...

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

DE........

Deere is well-positioned to benefit from the surge in corn production -- driven by increased demand for ethanol -- which could compel farmers to buy more equipment. Risks include any adverse weather conditions, which could hurt farmers' production and income and leave them with less money to spend on new equipment. In addition, Congress will begin negotiating a new farm bill this year, which could reduce farm subsidies and likewise leave farmers with less money to invest in capital.

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

BULLISH update for farmland...............

http://www.farms.com/readstory.asp?dtnnewsid=1697387

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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too bad all your money is in farmland...

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FARMLAND PRICES are directly influenced by grain prices.........especially those of corn and soybeans in the state of Iowa. In fact, it is probably the #1 factor of all factors involved in evaluating farmland prices.

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SOYBEAN prices are skyrocketing...........WOW!

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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BULLISH update for farmland...............

http://www.farms.com/readstory.asp?dtnnewsid=1697387

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.....and yet another today from CNN MONEY............

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/25/tech...ion=2007092609

Re: IOWA FARMLAND in GRAVE danger
 

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Ethanol Boom Is Running Out of Gas
By LAUREN ETTER and ILAN BRAT
October 1, 2007; Page A2 Wall Street Journal

Ethanol's frenzied growth over the past year is coming to a halt -- at least for now.

The price of ethanol has fallen by 30% over the past few months as a glut of the corn-based fuel looms, while the price of ethanol's primary component, corn, had risen. That is squeezing ethanol companies' profits and pushing some ethanol plants to the brink of bankruptcy.

Financing for new ethanol plants is drying up in many areas, and plans to build are being delayed or canceled across the Midwest, as investors increasingly decide that only the most-efficient ethanol plants are worth their money.

Some ethanol companies are "under deathwatch" now, says Chris Groobey, a partner in the project-finance practice of law firm Baker & McKenzie, which has worked with lenders and private-equity funds involved with ethanol.

...

But ethanol has gotten snagged by its own success. The price of ethanol has dropped to about $1.50 a gallon, down from about $2.50 at the end of last year, according to the Oil Price Information Service. That is largely because too much ethanol is being produced. Part of the problem appears to be that oil companies aren't able to blend ethanol into gasoline as quickly as ethanol is produced.

By next year, U.S. ethanol capacity is expected to reach about 12 billion gallons, according to Eitan Bernstein, an energy analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc., based in Arlington, Va. Currently, demand is just less than seven billion gallons.

...


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