*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

IND @ SD

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

official bump since I started these so early this time

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Colts win.

SD looked terrible last week. Chargers couldn't even beat KC at home. Yes, that was week 4. Have they improved that much? The running back is a star. The QB is average. This is not the 06 Chargers.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I love Colts -3.5 here. Really love it. Especially after Indy lost to NE this past week. From a MOV perspective, Indy should be about -10 here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I actually think there is some value in SD ML. Ive always wanted to do a pleaser, and ima make a small pleaser bet with SD and Minn/Cincy. Count it!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily.

30-20 Colts.

YTD: 0-0-0
+0u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is official now. I put down 1u at Indy -3.5 (-120) to win .83u. I wanted this to be a 2u play, but the extra vig makes me bring it down to 1u. DVOA projects Indy to be 5.5 point favorites in this game, and MOV has them at 8 or so, and that's not factoring in Indy's loss to their bitter rivals. The Colts are too good, and too well-coached to have a letdown, and I expect them to win this game handily.

30-20 Colts.

YTD: 0-0-0
+0u

[/ QUOTE ]

Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is indy -3 -125 better or worse than -3.5 -120. I guess this just comes down to if they win by exactly 3 greater than 5% of the time?

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I could be wrong, but I believe they have to win exactly by 3 greater than 1.01% of the time. -120 = 54.55 BE, whereas -125 = 55.56 BE. I'm pretty sure Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I'm not up on SD defensive injuries, but they are the type of fast, aggressive 3-4 defense that can put pressure on Peyton and cause problems. (remember they beat the Colts a couple years ago). Football Outsiders talk a lot about this.

of course, if Philips and Castillo don't play, forget about it.

I think SD actually matches up ok here offensively - what Indy tries to take away isn't nec. what SD tries to do a lot of.

anyways, I'll wait to see how the injury report shows.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Indy -3 (-125) is a far better line.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my reasoning correct as well? Or did you just quote the only part of my statement that wasn't retarded? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
(remember they beat the Colts a couple years ago).

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I remember Indy getting even better and the Chargers changing coaches and trying desperately to flush a bunch of talent down the toilet.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Yes.

Winning team's margin of victory in the NFL is exactly 3 points 14.51% of the time.

Moving a half-point on to the three is worth a lot more than 5c.

-3 -125 is a vastly superior line to -3.5 -120.

the move from -3.5 to -3 is worth about 25c on the open market. So if you thought -3 -125 was the fair line, you should get -3.5 +100 or so.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

kyro,

If you do some lineshopping, you can find much better than -3.5 -120. Matchbook has -3.5 +109. Even super-square Bodog is dealing -4 -105 which is marginally better than -3.5 -120.

+109 after MB commission has BE requirement of ~48.5%. -120 has BE requirement of ~55%. Huge difference!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
kyro,

If you do some lineshopping, you can find much better than -3.5 -120. Just as early as yesterday Matchbook had -3.5 +110. Even super-square Bodog is dealing -4 -105 which is better than -3.5 -120.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I'm just starting out, I'm going to do the best I can with this one site. I realize I'm missing out on some value, but if this turns out to be a losing prospect, it won't matter, and if I think I can win, I'll put some money on other sites soon enough. Thanks for the tip, though.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

the line I quoted was from bookmaker btw

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

-2.5 -145 is even better if they'll let you buy a half point.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Colts injury list doesn't look too pretty atm including but not exclusive too;
Brackett
Brock
Clark
Freeny
Gonzalez
Jackson, Marlin
Ugoh
Harrison
Keiaho

Its only early in the week and most guys could/probably will suit up but i'd keep an eye on it... on the flipside Merriman Phillips and Jammer are on the Charger's injury list... if the OLB's don't play manning will have all the time in the world

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I took the Chargers +4 -110 when sites had them at +3.5 +100.
A lot of factors here makes me like the Bolts in this game. Here are just 3 of them.
#1 The line is inflated based on last weeks Chargers road performance.
#2 Colts Injuries
#3 Colts coming off an emotional loss and I don't think this helps them as I've read some people suggest on forums. Colts are 8-11 ATS coming off a loss since Dungy has been the coach.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Instant action has them -3.5 at +105, pretty sick..........

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Instant action has them -3.5 at +105, pretty sick..........

[/ QUOTE ]

Gay. (Not gay like homosexual gay but gay like stupid gay. Not that gays are stupid or anything.)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates

Chargers +4 v Colts bet 1.05u to win 1u (Bodog)

16-16-2
down 0.88u
bet 35.99u
on 2p2 posted picks

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I was gonna publicly post my pick for this one, but matt hughes is too terrifying.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

I've got San Diego +4.5 at Bodog. (Risking 1.5u to win 1.36u)

It's better than what Pinny has listed as break-even, so I feel it's a pretty easy spot to bet the soft side of an arb.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

http://www.sagestats.com/img/data/en...l_75c453aa.png SageStats ensign_lee

Shame that Miami couldn't pull out their first win, but...them's the ropes.

For tonight, I'm taking

San Diego Moneyline (+167)
1 unit at Justbet

If you have access to a book giving you +170, more power to you. Too bad I don't. Shame.

I think that Indianapolis probably had a few distracted days of practice this week, and that will ultimately be their shortomcing against eh Chargers here. -3.5 away favorites? Damn. The Colts are good, for sure, but not THAT good.

The Chargers, I think will have gotten back down to basics this week and will come out inspired tonight. I truly believe they were caught completely offguard by that Minnesota Vikings team that just ran the ball down their throats.

The line has moved from -3 to -3.5 on public money, iwht about 3 to 4 bets on Indy for every bet on San Diego. At +167, I'll take this bet; I believe that San Diego wins this enough times to make this profitable.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Performify-

love the new avatar

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

...
make that TWO UNITS

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!

GO COLTS

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

what is wrong with the rivers?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Why would they call a statute of liberty play from their own endzone?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

got norv?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

Had Colts -4 and under 47.5. The game went mostly how I figured it would except for Sproles

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Refs just cost Indy the game.

Vinatieri is so clutch.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

hahahaha Norv hands ball to Lorenzo Neal trying to run out clock on first down. Genius level play-calling.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Teasers [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

So when the team I bet on runs two kicks back for TDs, the other team turns it over 6 times, and I'm still a late TD away from not covering, it's that what's known as "sucking out"?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
So when the team I bet on runs two kicks back for TDs, the other team turns it over 6 times, and I'm still a late TD away from not covering, it's that what's known as "sucking out"?

[/ QUOTE ]

[x] Sucked out

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

SD looked horrible. indy would win this game 95% of the time. GJ to those who picked SD tho.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
SD looked horrible. indy would win this game 95% of the time. GJ to those who picked SD tho.

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is this the sports betting version of "you couldn't have played that hand worse, but nice hand"

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (IND @ SD) ***
 

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SD looked horrible. indy would win this game 95% of the time. GJ to those who picked SD tho.

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is this the sports betting version of "you couldn't have played that hand worse, but nice hand"

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Yeah. SD barely won despite winning every luckament.