ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

This should be a great series. On paper, these teams are very close in a 7 game series.

CC and Beckett are both legit aces, games 1 and 5 should be classics. Carmona has been on a great roll as well; he should face off against Schilling in games 2 and probably 6. Schilling isn't peak Schill anymore, but since coming back from his injury, he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. both these games will be played in Fenway.

the games 3 (and 7? gulp) starters are both wildcards. Westbrook had some great starts and some really bad ones; ditto for Dice-K. I think you give the edge to Dice-K here, but at this point I'm not thrilled sending either one up there.

(the above assume Schill gets moved up to game 2)

game 4 will likely be Byrd vs Wakefield (or Lester). again, this is a pretty even matchup. I think Lester > Wake, but Tito is likely to go with the vet, if healthy.

both teams have great, fully rested, healthy bullpens. I'm not sure where the edge goes here.

I think the clear lineup edge, though, goes to the Red Sox. they scored 56 more runs than the Indians this year, and nearly 100 more equivalent runs. This was with Manny having a downyear, and JD Drew being pretty bad. if JD can keep it somewhat, and Manny stays locked in, the Red Sox lineup gets a big edge. they are patient and powerful. the also led the league in stealing %.

defensively, I don't really know enough to comment. both teams look pretty solid.

in sum:

Cleveland SP small edge
Boston lineup big edge
bullpens and defense too close to call.

sooo...

I predict Red Sox in 7 games

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

This could be a very good series, I'm saying Sox in 6. After watching last night's game featuring paul byrd, I may go on life-tilt if the Red Sox don't shell that tomato can of a pitcher.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Sox in 6


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Maybe 5. LOL Byrd, LOL Borowski.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

INDIANS IN 4 SHIPP IT

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

schilling is pitching game 3 according to weei's dennis and callahan, fwiw

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Sox in 6


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Maybe 5. LOL Byrd, LOL Borowski.

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What will be awesome: In 2008 Borowski becomes a starter and wins 23 games (see Carmona's 2006 closer numbers).

Here is what I (an Indians fan) think:
This is a very good matchup between two teams. Schilling owns the Indians. I don't think they've ever been able to hit him. Here's how I see the teams:

Bos lineup vs. Cle lineup - edge Boston. They have 8 good hitters and JD Drew. If JD Drew becomes the hero of the ALCS, I will [censored] puke.

Bos SP v. CLE SP - Edge - CLE. Each team has two aces that are, for all purposes, even. however, Westbrook and Byrd are slightly better than Dice-K and Wakefield.

BOS Bullpen vs. CLE Bullpen - Edge - CLE. Aside from Borowski, CLE has three lights out relievers.

I can't quite get my mind around having four starts from Sabathia and Carmona and the Indians not winning at least three of those. so that leaves 1 CC/Carmona start, two from Westbrook and one from Byrd (probably). So in my mind, the Indians have to win just one of those games, which I think is very likely. Of course, Boston has to be thinking the same thing with Schilling and Beckett (how do they not win the four games those pitchers start???).

I think the Indians in six with the breakdown as follows:

Boston - games 1 and 4

Cleveland - Games 2, 3, 5, and 6.

CLE Starters - 1 - CC (nerves are starting to show. I also wonder if he is feeling pressure to perform in the postseason to get a huge contract in 08).

2 - Carmona - he has pitched well against Boston this year.

3 - Westbrook (yeah, I am picking them to win this game, because I will be there. That's pretty much why. Still, Westbrook has his moments.)

4 - Byrd - Watching Paul Byrd pitch any game is like having sex with an ex-girlfriend, it's a little awkward and nervous, you have moments of confliction and doubt, and it might feel good at times, but you're never really happy about it.

5 - CC (assuming the Indians make it to game 5, CC will rebound)

6 - Carmona (Cleveland fans will totally go Book of Exodus and buy swamrs of locusts.)

-AA

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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I think the clear lineup edge, though, goes to the Red Sox.

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I think a lot of people are going to overestimate Boston's edge in the lineups. As someone who watched a whole lot of AL Central this year, I can tell you the Indians can hurt you up and down their order.

Sizemore is a stud in the leadoff spot. He still strikes out too much but he is dangerous. I'm not sold on Asdrubal Cabrera yet in the two spot, but he is still very young and I expect he will improve quickly. Hafner and Martinez are both big run producers and Victor is about as clutch as they come. With Garko and Peralta, the power extends way down in their order. It's easy to overlook Casey Blake, but he has come up with some huge hits for them. Watch out for him in Fenway. I'm predicting a big series for him.

Anyway, Boston has a good lineup, but Cleveland's is also very good. I'll be very surprised if this series doesn't go six or seven games.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Watching Paul Byrd pitch any game is like having sex with an ex-girlfriend, it's a little awkward and nervous, you have moments of confliction and doubt, and it might feel good at times, but you're never really happy about it.

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LOL. I'll have to try that.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

sox in 3.

thats how i roll

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

I hope they leave Schilling at #3. I'd much rather have him in gave 7 over Dice-k should it come to that.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Daisuke is starting game 2 and Schilling in game 3.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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I think a lot of people are going to overestimate Boston's edge in the lineups.

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thats b/c when you look at the #'s, the Red Sox scored a lot more runs.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

I don't understand how anyone can even try to argue Cleveland's bullpen is better than Boston's. Great there are 3 good pitchers there. Too bad the 4th or 5th best is the closer and gets high leverage innings. At least the Red Sox use Papelbon and Okajima in important spots. Not to mention that Delcarmen has been lights out (albeit in not the higher leverage spot). Anyways, if you think Cleveland has the better bullpen you are crazy.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Bos lineup vs. Cle lineup - edge Boston. They have 8 good hitters and JD Drew. If JD Drew becomes the hero of the ALCS, I will [censored] puke.


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coco crisp, julio lugo, and jason varitek are not better hitters than jd drew.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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In 2008 Borowski becomes a starter and wins 23 games (see Carmona's 2006 closer numbers).

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if you could make an awesome starter by first having him be a terrible closer, lots more teams would do that

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Aside from Borowski, CLE has three lights out relievers.

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but, you need to count Borowski, since he is pitching important innings. Also, the Red Sox have 3 great relievers.

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I can't quite get my mind around having four starts from Sabathia and Carmona and the Indians not winning at least three of those.

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they made 2 starts against the Red Sox this year. they were both excellent starts. each team won 1 game.

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however, Westbrook and Byrd are slightly better than Dice-K and Wakefield.

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Westbrook DERA: 4.35
Byrd DERA: 4.70

Dice-K DERA: 4.23
Wakefield DERA: 4.76 (Lester is 4.26)

it's very close, if anything BOS gets the edge

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Sox in 6.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Bos lineup vs. Cle lineup - edge Boston. They have 8 good hitters and JD Drew. If JD Drew becomes the hero of the ALCS, I will [censored] puke.


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coco crisp, julio lugo, and jason varitek are not better hitters than jd drew.

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Not to mention that Drew is on fire lately. He hit .342 in September.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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if you could make an awesome starter by first having him be a terrible closer, lots more teams would do that

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I honestly think that's the best plan for him. I wasn't too happy when we signed him and Foulke. Word on the street is the Indians are getting Linebrink to be cour closer for next year. We'll see how that goes.



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but, you need to count Borowski, since he is pitching important innings. Also, the Red Sox have 3 great relievers.

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Yes, but one of your good relievers is Papelbon. Borowski is an average closer (yes, I know he sucks, but you don't save 40+games being completely terrible, thus average is as good as he will get). And I don't think Eric Wedge will let Borowski blow more than one save this series. Asid from Betancourt, Perez, and Fultz, the Indians have Lewis. So I don't think it's decisive, but I think Cleveland has a slight edge.

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they made 2 starts against the Red Sox this year. they were both excellent starts. each team won 1 game.


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Let me restate - I don't see how the Indians can start CC and Carmona twice and not win all four games. I don't see how the Red Sox can start Beckett and Schilling twice and not win all four games. Something's got to give.



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Westbrook DERA: 4.35
Byrd DERA: 4.70

Dice-K DERA: 4.23
Wakefield DERA: 4.76 (Lester is 4.26)

it's very close, if anything BOS gets the edge

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Yes, it is very close. I'm an Indians fan, so I shade any doubtful matchups towards the Tribe. Also, I was thinking more of Dice-K and Wakefield vs. the Indians and Byrd and Westbrook vs. The Red Sox. Still close, and we're probably both bias.

-AA

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

re: the bullpens, here is a BP report.

the Red Sox were #1 in WXRL, Cleveland #2.

Sox allowed 50 of 219 inherited runners to score; Cleveland allowed 56 of 208.

they are both excellent bullpens.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Anyone think,
Sabbathia pitches 1,4,7
Carmona, 2,5.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think,
Sabbathia pitches 1,4,7
Carmona, 2,5.

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Given Wedge's reluctance to pitch CC on short rest in the Yankees series, I'd very much doubt this.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think,
Sabbathia pitches 1,4,7
Carmona, 2,5.

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I don't think CC has ever pitched on 3 days rest.

that said, game 7 could potentially turn out to be an "all hands" situation for both teams, with CC and/or Beckett getting 1 or 2 innings each.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

not going too deep into this, but i think the sox do have a significant edge on offense, for the reasons stated above.

i give cleveland a slight edge in SP but i think it's very close. to me the big 'x factor' is how good carmona has looked lately vs. whether dice k shows up. if you figure the sox are a small, but definite favorite in game 1, a lot hinges on game 2 and whether cleveland can split at fenway. if you go by recent results i would say a carmona vs. dice-k matchup, even at fenway, slightly to moderately favors the indians. if i'm cleveland, i really, really don't want to come back to the jake down 2-0 with a journeyman like westbrook going against schilling, who has pitched well against the indians and looks as good as he has since 04 right now. getting a split as the road team is always huge, but in this case it seems even bigger.


sox defense seems a little better to me. outfield is close to a push or edge cleveland (lofton >>> manny, coco slightly > sizemore, don't know that much about gutierez but i am guessing drew is a little better, and has experience at fenway which may be important). infield seems to favor the sox, who are definitely better at the corners and no worse than a push in the middle (not that familiar with cabrera).

bullpens are both very good but borowski has to scare the bejeezus out of cleveland fans. i give the sox a small edge here. betancourt is arguably the best reliever out of the batch, although he and paps are very close.

i like the sox in 6.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Also, the Red Sox have 3 great relievers.

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Not to mention Mike Mother [censored] Timlin

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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Daisuke is starting game 2 and Schilling in game 3.

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Tito just officially announced that

it's Beckett, then Schilling, then Dice-K. if Wakefield is ok, then he goes game 4, if not Lester.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

oh boy... Lester.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Matsuzaka over Westbrook in a game seven for the ages. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] 11-8.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

btw i can see reasons for both teams to like the pitching lineup the sox have chosen here, but i think it's better overall for the sox. dice-k is the most likely of the three starters to get knocked out early so putting him between the other two makes sense. schilling is more likely to be battle-tested and ready for a road playoff game, small psychological edge there. dice-k is the highest variance matchup in my mind for cleveland, so you are basically gambling that he outpitches or matches carmona (or that the sox can get to him), instead of going with schilling who you expect to at least hang close to carmona for sure. then in game 3 you have a more steady guy who is likely to give you a significant edge over cleveland's game 3 starter, as opposed to dice who is, again, high variance and could easily be no better than westbrook.

plus if you believe 'momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher,' the sox have more of a chance to break up any momentum cleveland has, whereas cleveland is much more likely to go without a quality start in their home park until as late as game 6. if i am tito i am very wary of letting this young cleveland team get on a roll, i think the pitching matchups he has chosen reflect that.

EDIT: nevermind, tito switched it up on me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] guess they are really going for the jugular. i have to say i liked the other way better.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Indians +157 on Pinnacle. Thoughts?

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Pinny baseball lines are retarded. They don't take US action so there is very little sharp money there.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

I think it's much more important to try and hold serve and win your two home games so I like Schilling in game 2. And suppose Beckett gets outpitched by CC and we're down 1, I want Schilling out there in game 2.

As an added bonus, DiceK might get a little extra motivation if he views this as a demotion.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

I know that I would rather have Schill than Dicek in game 7, but you gotta get there first.

fwiw, Dice-K was much better on the road this year than at home

era of 4.02 instead of 4.86, BAA of .230 instead of .266, though is K/BB ratio was the same

some of that would expect b/c numbers should be worse in Fenway than the avg AL park.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think,
Sabbathia pitches 1,4,7
Carmona, 2,5.

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I only see CC pitching game 4 if the Indians are 0-3 going into it. If not, I don't think Wedge will mix anything up. And based on how Byrd pitched last night against the Yankees, I don't think Wedge will have any problem naming him the game 4 starter.

What I wonder if he gets the game 3 call instead of Westbrook.

-AA

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Byrd did not pitch well last night

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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I think a lot of people are going to overestimate Boston's edge in the lineups.

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thats b/c when you look at the #'s, the Red Sox scored a lot more runs.

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The Indians are not playing the same lineup that they had for 1/2 the year.

Barfield- 420abs .243/.270/.324 - has been replaced with
Cabrera- 159abs .283/.354/.421

Nixon- 307abs .251/.342/.336 - replaced by
Lofton .296/.367/.414

Micheals 267 .270/.324/.397 - replaced by
Gutierrez 271 .266/.318/.472

David Dellucci's 178 abs .230/.296/.382 are no longer there.

Andy Marte even put in 57 abs with a .193/.233/.316 line before being pulled.

That's close to 22% abs (1229/5604) being replaced with upgrades.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

ok, but you could also find a whole bunch of awful Wily Mo Pena ab's that are gone & a bunch of Eric Hinke at bats that won't show up here.

and like I said, those results don't reflect that Manny is locked in after a down season, and JD Drew was really bad for 5 months, and appeared to be back to a great hitter in September.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

all,

as long as the indians keep giving up outs to score one run in 3 run games, we'll be fine.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

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ok, but you could also find a whole bunch of awful Wily Mo Pena ab's that are gone & a bunch of Eric Hinke at bats that won't show up here.


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Wily Mo 156 abs, Hinske 186. The amount of Abs that the Cleveland lineup gave to players with NEGATIVE VORP during the year is pretty impressive for a playoff team.

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and like I said, those results don't reflect that Manny is locked in after a down season, and JD Drew was really bad for 5 months, and appeared to be back to a great hitter in September.

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Can I get some Hafner love as well? He hit .266/.385/.451 during the season, but a .316/.414/.551 September, which is a lot more in line with the last 3 seasons.

I'm not trying to say that Cleveland is better here, just that their runs scored differences aren't nearly as great as reg season stats.

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

Anyone else think the Sox bring back Beckett on short rest if it goes to game 7?

Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone else think the Sox bring back Beckett on short rest if it goes to game 7?

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I think they would bring him in to relieve but not start.