How hard did he hit? AQs
 

5-handed. Hero is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Limp, limp, I raise, BB calls and the limpers call. Four to the flop for 8.5 SB.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and all call. Four to the turn for 6.25 BB.

Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Only Cutoff calls this time. Cutoff is 36/7 preflop, passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

River is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Oops, I've been checkraised.

Now what?

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet.

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No way, I think this is a backdoor flush like >70 percent of the time.

In the middle of a match I three bet. When Im totally level headed I say call

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

i'd say he mostly has A9, Acxc,Kc5c,99 (discounted of course). against this range your only option is to call, as you have less than 50% equity. of course he has some other random stuff in there, but i doubt it can swing it to a raise.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

if you can't fold to a 4 bet you probably should just call.

since he was getting like 12-1 on the flop he could have anything.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

its either 5 6 of clubs type of hand or A 9. hard say that A 9 doesnt put in a raise somewhere before this though, especially in a five handed game. i would just call and expect to see clubs more than two pair.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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A9 just seems so extremely likely given that line so I would 3-bet.

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No way, I think this is a backdoor flush like >70 percent of the time.

In the middle of a match I three bet. When Im totally level headed I say call

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Mntbikr's intuition is right. AcXc is totally logical here. We are an underdog to have the best hand in this spot so even 3bet/folding, with the assumption that villian always caps river with better hand than AQ, is a losing play.

Call and expect to lose is the only play on the river.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

you guys really are narrowing his range way way way too much
he could have made any 2 pair(with a 9 in it), a flush with a lot of different combos, even a set with 99. He is a loose player who was getting like 12-1, he could have near any 2 after the flop.

Saying this looks a lot like A9 is laughable.

with all that said, its probably just a call based on combos

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

getting 4 bet on this river would make me want to die. and really, if you get 4 bet, you are winning about 1% of the time.

very easy call without a specific read.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

I like the raise/fold, if he is that tight on the flop then he will call a backdoor flush draw only with the aces of club.

His range isnt that huge, the flop isnt too drawy, the ace is scary, either he had somekind of straigh draw on the flop or the ace. A9 is very likely there.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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you guys really are narrowing his range way way way too much
he could have made any 2 pair(with a 9 in it), a flush with a lot of different combos, even a set with 99. He is a loose player who was getting like 12-1, he could have near any 2 after the flop.

Saying this looks a lot like A9 is laughable.

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not really. A9 is just about the only two pair i'd ever expect to see here. 95 is a loose limp. Q9 is a very loose flop call, and 92 no he did not limp that.

5c4c 6c5c Kc5c and a bunch of AcXc combos are what you worry about here. i dont think it is close

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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getting 4 bet on this river would make me want to die. and really, if you get 4 bet, you are winning about 1% of the time.


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This doesn't make sense.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

This seems like a very easy call. You could 3bet if the flop were Ac 5h 2s instead.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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I like the raise/fold, if he is that tight on the flop then he will call a backdoor flush draw only with the aces of club.

His range isnt that huge, the flop isnt too drawy, the ace is scary, either he had somekind of straigh draw on the flop or the ace. A9 is very likely there.

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Folding the flop with middle pair + BDFD is ridiculous.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

I think calling is better than raise/fold, because it is probably only A9 will pay you off and there are more BDFD possibilities.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

The only 2 pair he plays this way is A9. It's a call.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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getting 4 bet on this river would make me want to die. and really, if you get 4 bet, you are winning about 1% of the time.


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This doesn't make sense.

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let me explain.

when this guy raises the river, I still like my hand, but I'm just calling and hoping for the best.

If I decide to 3bet the river, and I get 4bet, I am losing almost always. So if I 3bet, and get capped, I can't even profitably call the river cap. We all know no one is going to 3bet and fold to a cap, so everytime you 3bet, and get capped, you are making a 1BB mistake.

There are 1000 flush combos and like 6 A9 combos.

This is not a close decision at all.

People, please hand read, thank you.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

shove

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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A9 seems likely enough given that line so I would call.

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FYP 3betting is lol

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

A9 = 6 hands

Flush AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 85, 75, 65, 54, 53 = 13 hands

99 = 3 hands

It's also somewhat possible that this was a slowplay and the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] isn't relevant. In that case it could go either way depending on whether it's two pair or something better.

Overall it looks like 3-betting is reckless.

My table feel said "two pair" but I just called anyway. I wonder whether I knew something or was just lucky. A9o and MHIG.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

I can't imagine three betting here, this seems like an easy call but definalty no reason to three bet and then be forced to call when he caps due to the size of the pot imo.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

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Given this description, his river check-raising hand range should be dominated by A9. 3-bet.

Note that a more passive player could show you Ax of clubs, but a player who likes to lag it up on the turn would surely raise top pair + flush draw.

There are 6 combinations of A9 out. AKc and A5c are both out, due to the lack of preflop raise and turn raise. A3c and A4c would be virtual locks for a raise from this kind of player, given top pair + flush + gutshot straight draw.

That leaves only A6c, A7c, A8c, ATc, and AJc. Since we are discounting these due to the laggy nature of our opponent, but can't discount A9 at all, I think you should 3-bet.

It's close enough though that just calling is not a big mistake.

good luck.
Eric


-Eric

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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Flush AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 85, 75, 65, 54, 53 = 13 hands

99 = 3 hands

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99 != tight on the flop.
Pair + flush draw check-call != lag it up postflop. You put 54c in his range? Surely this guy will put in a raise holding pair + flush + straight draw...

You should discount these hands a lot, it's no surprise that he has A9 here.

good luck.
Eric

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.

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Hi vma,

How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts).

Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos?

AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53...
AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely.
A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare.

That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively.

K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't.

Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range.

-eric

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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5-handed. Hero is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Limp, limp, I raise, BB calls and the limpers call. Four to the flop for 8.5 SB.

Flop is A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet and all call. Four to the turn for 6.25 BB.

Turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Only Cutoff calls this time. Cutoff is 36/7 preflop, passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

River is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Oops, I've been checkraised.

Now what?

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I say: 3bet aggressive players and just call this time due to his passive playing style.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

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I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.

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Hi vma,

How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts).

Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos?

AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53...
AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely.
A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare.

That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively.

K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't.

Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range.

-eric

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elindauer,
I would add:
6c4c,Kc4c,Qc4c,Kc3c,Qc3c,7c4c. Maybe a few ridiculous Jc4c/6c3c hands occasionally. All discounted to varying degrees because of pf/turn. I wonder if I am taking his fishiness pf too far or if you are taking his aggressiveness postflop too far. It's hard to know given the limited read.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

Fair enough. Thanks vma.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

36/7, this can't be a poorly played set?

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

elindauer,

I don't fully agree with the way you are interpreting the read I gave.

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then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets.

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The word "somewhat" is an important modifier here. He's not that aggressive.

The other issue is he's a fairly weak player who can't be relied on to properly evaluate hands. Just because he's tight in general on the flop doesn't mean he is going to find this particular fold with 99. It's typical of weak players not to appreciate the danger in this situation. Nor can you precisely say he would always raise the turn with XYZ but never with ABC. That's giving him too much credit for knowing what he is doing.

Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
 

I agree we should not 3bet for the reasons already stated and given that u loose 99,9% when capped but you wont fold anyway u dont have enough equity to 3bet, simple as that.