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-   -   Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=541913)

private joker 11-09-2007 04:06 AM

Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/7...ands5shgl8.jpg

OK obviously I am running hot so I expect my won @ SD to go down significantly.

But my main concern is how tight I am PF. I'm pretty sure most of you are in the 26/21 range or whatever, and I'm hovering at 23.6/17.

There are a few things I need cleared up:

1) 3-betting range in position. Since I'm new to this level & site, I don't have stats on most of my players, and am only just now getting notes on regulars. So as a default, when UTG or MP opens and you're CO/BTN, what are we doing with hands like KJo, KTo, QJs, A7s, A8o, 55-44, etc. I feel like I'm erring on the side of folding when I should be re-popping.

2) Blind defense -- should I be playing from the SB more often? I can't seem to find good spots to play against a steal there (like I'm folding 87s, Q9o, and Axo if it's a tight player)

3) Opening from non-steal positions. When UTG and MP, I'm folding a lot here. Mucking hands like JTo, QTo, A6o, A3s, 33, J9s, etc. Should I open up here, and if so, with what?

Also does my WTSD look low or is that normal? My total AF (which isn't on the chart) is 2.1. Too low as well?

Thanks for the input; I'm so rusty at short-handed.

Hobbs. 11-09-2007 04:08 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
NIT!

MitchL 11-09-2007 04:27 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
NIT!

[/ QUOTE ]

slamhound 11-09-2007 04:45 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
Your 'folded BB to steal' stat is really high, 'att. to steal blinds' is really low especially considering how well you're running. Could just be a sample size thing though. WTSD depends a lot on style, but I think yours is well within normal range for 6-max.

Also, I would like to concur with the above gentlemen.

NinaWilliams 11-09-2007 05:01 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
1) Id fold all of these vs an EP raiser.

2) Im not defending 78s or Q9o either. Axo depends what the X actually is. Your fold sb to steal looks about right, so i wouldnt worry about that for now.

3) I open J9s from HJ almost always and sometimes UTG. The others not so much.

From the looks of things, you need to defend a wider range in the bb and steal a wider range OTB and in the SB.

Dont worry too much about EP, its ok to be nitty UTG and in the HJ. But in late position its party time.

waffle 11-09-2007 05:25 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
OP: Open raise more hands on the button.

Oink 11-09-2007 05:52 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
Hi PJ

Nice to see you posting here a lot. I like your posts a lot when I lurk around in medium stakes.


Errhm... First of all. You seem very tight. I am almost 100% sure you are leaving money on the table in late position. I would get my ATSB above 40 ASAP.

In a 2/5 blind structure I think your fold SB is fine.

I do believe you are folding you BB too much tho. I wouldnt like mine above 45 at 5/10.


Sample size is too small to be sure this is your true wtsd. Just to give an example: Mine is 40-41 over the last 80k hands. But in the last 7k hands where I have been running bad its only 37. So since you have been running good over that sample its likely that your true wtsd is a bit lower. 38 is fine btw for 5/10 IMO.


1) I am 3-betting all of those against a MP TAG or LAG open. If MP is a strong TAG or LAGTAG I muck em. If MP is unknown I muck em. Against UTG I will only 3-bet if villain is a LAGfish.

2) If he is tight postflop as well you can actually play a lot of hands. But as said, I think your fold SB to steal is fine for 5/10.

3) I play all of those hands in MP. 33 in UTG. But I do think that you should look for spots to open up in late position more than in UTG and MP. Your ATSB is really low.

chezlaw 11-09-2007 06:09 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LAG!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

vmacosta 11-09-2007 07:46 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
Your 'folded BB to steal' stat is really high, 'att. to steal blinds' is really low especially considering how well you're running.

Also, I would like to concur with the above gentlemen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flintoff 11-09-2007 09:06 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
Are you browsing the net with all the spare time you have in between hands PJ? :P

Motorcycle Mike 11-09-2007 09:15 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
Microscopic position stats, plz?

DeathDonkey 11-09-2007 12:29 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
PJ: pretty much have nothing to quibble with the direct questions you asked for ranges in spots. I am certain your problem is not playing enough in the CO and button and folding the BB too much. You'll jump 2-3% in VPIP just by stopping folding your BB so much, and another 2-3% by stealing from the button with a real man's range [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Btw, my postflop agg factor is probably a bit lower than 2.1, its very style dependent. If you are in games with lots of calling stations though it should be higher. The more LAGs, the lower it should be generally.

-DeathDonkey

private joker 11-09-2007 02:40 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
PJ: pretty much have nothing to quibble with the direct questions you asked for ranges in spots. I am certain your problem is not playing enough in the CO and button and folding the BB too much. You'll jump 2-3% in VPIP just by stopping folding your BB so much, and another 2-3% by stealing from the button with a real man's range [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Since this seems to be the prevailing notion, maybe I need to re-read Stox and figure out how to play super marginal hands OOP against a steal. Like defending a hand such as K5o, the flop comes T82, and I c/f anyway.

Or I have 86o, flop some kind of gutterball like KT7, and feel lost without odds for the draw. Hopefully when I work on how to get $ out of these marginal BB hands, I can play them.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, my postflop agg factor is probably a bit lower than 2.1, its very style dependent. If you are in games with lots of calling stations though it should be higher. The more LAGs, the lower it should be generally.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, and yeah the opponents in my game are more loose-passive fish. At least the ones I try to sit with.

Apanage 11-09-2007 02:57 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 


[/ QUOTE ]
This makes sense, and yeah the opponents in my game are more loose-passive fish. At least the ones I try to sit with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then youīre adapting to your environment perfectly IMO.Defending your BB more than 61% against loose passives is just spew.And so are 3-betting light preflop.
Your blind stealing of 33% is also fine as long as you steal% from button is >40% and your CO steal is 30%-ish.You should still steal from those positions with super marginal hands since you are playing in position against awful players. But your steal% from SB should decrease dramatically and therefore your total blind steal percentages decreases.
On the other hand you should complete SB more and overlimp more borderline hands In position.
And your W$SD should be in the range of 57-60%.
However a WSF of 48% is totally impossible to sustain.Be prepared for something like 40%.

slamhound 11-09-2007 03:03 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
And your W$SD should be in the range of 57-60%

[/ QUOTE ]

??? What's your WTSD%? I don't think my W$SD has ever been higher than 57 over 10k+ hands playing shorthanded.

Tryptamean 11-09-2007 03:08 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
is this filtered for 6 handed? my vpip/pfr is actually about the same with a full table, but my attempt to steal is a lot higher and fold to steal a lot lower.

looking at anything else is pretty worthless in this sample size

private joker 11-09-2007 03:15 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
is this filtered for 6 handed? my vpip/pfr is actually about the same with a full table, but my attempt to steal is a lot higher and fold to steal a lot lower.

looking at anything else is pretty worthless in this sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

At full ring, my VPIP/PFR used to be around 16-17/11.

Tryptamean 11-09-2007 03:17 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is this filtered for 6 handed? my vpip/pfr is actually about the same with a full table, but my attempt to steal is a lot higher and fold to steal a lot lower.

looking at anything else is pretty worthless in this sample size

[/ QUOTE ]

At full ring, my VPIP/PFR used to be around 16-17/11.

[/ QUOTE ]

what I meant was a total of 6 players at a 6max table... I was just suspecting that your small smaple included some 5 handed, 4 handed, and maybe shorter... if that's the case, I think you're too tight... if the sample is all 6handed play, its not too shabby

Apanage 11-09-2007 03:18 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
I constantly play with loose passives and mine is 58-59% or something (different databases, donīt bother to put them together) over 600K.My WSD is around 34-35%.

STOX had something like 58.28% over 300K so I really donīt think it is that unusual.But his figure is of course outstanding because he has it in an environment where people donīt constantly call down inferior hands.

private joker 11-09-2007 03:30 PM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]


what I meant was a total of 6 players at a 6max table... I was just suspecting that your small smaple included some 5 handed, 4 handed, and maybe shorter... if that's the case, I think you're too tight... if the sample is all 6handed play, its not too shabby

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I see. No it isn't filtered for just 6-handed, but I can only think of a few orbits I played 3-4 handed. Most of this action came from 5-6 handed games.

private joker 11-17-2007 01:41 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
OK, played twice as many hands now: here's the update -- obviously I've started defending the BB a lot more. I think I'm breaking even from it.

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/900/4k5shortqr0.jpg

Problem is my ASB hasn't risen, but I really think I'm stealing most of my playable hands. I guess sometimes I'm laying down like K2o and Q5o; I take it that's bad? I also pass up T5s and 95s and stuff like that. Maybe the sample size is just too small to really see my ASB, or else I'm just a pussy.

How's the WTSD? Is 39 about right?

NinaWilliams 11-17-2007 02:40 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
I steal with Q5o and K2o in the sb a lot but not on the button. My opening range in the CO is something like 78s+ AXs K6s+ K9o+ JTo+ 44+ A5o+ Q8s+. My range OTB is Ax, K7o+, 57s+, J7s+, Q5s+, 22+, Q9o+, 98o+. I'll frequently go lower by a couple notches if the conditions are good. Is this similar to what you're opening?

yourface 11-18-2007 05:18 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
PJ K2o and Q5o are crap but make sure you are stealing with hands like 78o and 46s when you have weak players in the blinds. people are bad at poker you can def show a profit with these hands

you fold your BB a lot to steal. try messing around with pokerstove a bunch and see what your hot and cold equity is like - stoxtrader recommends calling with 35%+, and less when you have a postflop edge

SuperUberBob 11-18-2007 06:18 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
You're playing way too tight from the blinds and the button.

Loosen up there and your stats will be much better.

Bruce D 11-18-2007 07:41 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
Nina, do you steal with those (Q5 and K2) because it's cheaper than stealing on the btn?

Apanage 11-18-2007 08:23 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
I steal with Q5o and K2o in the sb a lot but not on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a 50-60% SBstealer you really just have to raise most flops regardless what you have and reraise 30% of your hands preflop.
It is easy money adjusting to an overstealer from SB because position rules.

private joker 11-18-2007 08:36 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
PJ K2o and Q5o are crap but make sure you are stealing with hands like 78o and 46s when you have weak players in the blinds. people are bad at poker you can def show a profit with these hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, I'll try that. I have been folding 64s and the like. I'm also going to try more aggression in SB vs BB confrontations.

vmacosta 11-18-2007 09:26 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I steal with Q5o and K2o in the sb a lot but not on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a 50-60% SBstealer you really just have to raise most flops regardless what you have and reraise 30% of your hands preflop.
It is easy money adjusting to an overstealer from SB because position rules.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when is 50-60% overstealing from the SB?

Apanage 11-18-2007 09:51 AM

Re: Microscopic sample size STAT checkup plz
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I steal with Q5o and K2o in the sb a lot but not on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a 50-60% SBstealer you really just have to raise most flops regardless what you have and reraise 30% of your hands preflop.
It is easy money adjusting to an overstealer from SB because position rules.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when is 50-60% overstealing from the SB?

[/ QUOTE ]

When we meet good players that are playing back,reraises a lot of their hands preflop and never folds preflop.When they raise flop with air and marginal hands.

When we meet loose aggressives that makes the same thing.
When you meet loose passive showdownmonkeys and you hammer 76o into them.

The only reason to steal 60% is if people fold preflop.When people donīt I donīt like a 60% steal range that much and I would certainly call one that continues to do it an overstealer.


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