presidential election
 

why isn't there a line on the election and why dont ppl bet on it?

Re: presidential election
 

wsex.

Re: presidential election
 

Betfair prices, so you likely can't get on, but as a guide:

Rep candidate:
Giuliani +122
Romney +265
Paul +1400
McCain +1500
Thompson +1900
Huckabee +1100

Dem:

Clinton -250
Obama +460
Gore +2300
Edwards +1850

President:

Dem -200
Rep +192

Re: presidential election
 

Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in something closer and doing a middle on something like a Clinton/Obama ticket v Repubs. I think that ticket is a crash and burn, Edwards has got to get on there for a chance.

Re: presidential election
 

My gut says there is a lot of value on Romney at +265. To greatly minimize risk you could put 1u on Rudy at +122 and 1u on Romney at +265. I'd estimate that > 90% of the time one of these 2 gets the nod and if I were booking I'd have both at -105.

Re: presidential election
 

or obama

Re: presidential election
 

Yeah getting that much on Obama, probably has some value, but it's thin.

Re: presidential election
 

Bottom line, do you guys think this country is ready to elect a female President?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

Re: presidential election
 

All republicans should burn for banning online gambling...all of them plus any other politician who wants to tell dumb yanks what to do.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line, do you guys think this country is ready to elect a black President not named Colin Powell?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: presidential election
 

Schwatt agree with that also. I think if either Obama or Hilary get the Dem bid then another Republican will be Pres.

Ron Paul in 08 baby!

Re: presidential election
 

lol ron paul, stephen colbert polled better than ron paul heads up.

Re: presidential election
 

Ron Paul has no chance. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: presidential election
 

tennis, I know Paul has zero chance. That is why I am sick of this country and everything our government now represents. Nothing will change until all hell breaks loose. Be it WWIII, the collapse of the US economy, Alien Invasion. Just isn't possible to radically change our government.

Re: presidential election
 

Best place bar none to trade politics --- Intrade

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
tennis, I know Paul has zero chance. That is why I am sick of this country and everything our government now represents. Nothing will change until all hell breaks loose. Be it WWIII, the collapse of the US economy, Alien Invasion. Just isn't possible to radically change our government.

[/ QUOTE ]
Soon enough unfortunately. But take the Ron Paul (4tw!!!) talks to politics imo

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
All republicans should burn for banning online gambling...all of them plus any other politician who wants to tell dumb yanks what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

ur an embarassment to Canada, this is a Sports Betting Forum - stop taking any opportunity to put down Americans.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Best place bar none to trade politics --- Intrade

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: presidential election
 

I got obama at WSEX for something like +600 a few weeks ago if I remember correctly.

A few years ago at BetOnSports.com I too Ahhhnuld as soon as he was mentioned as a possible candidate for Cali Gov. straight to the bank, something like +160.

Re: presidential election
 

any of these guys in favour of bringing the online gaming??

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line, do you guys think this country is ready to elect a black President not named Chris Rock?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
tennis, I know Paul has zero chance. That is why I am sick of this country and everything our government now represents. Nothing will change until all hell breaks loose.Just isn't possible to radically change our government.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing changed with FDR's election?
With Nixon's?
With Truman's?
With Reagan's?

Are you high?

Re: presidential election
 

Maybe he means our government in its current state? IMO, arguing politics in most cases is pointless because everyone has decent arguments from their own sides and people always fail to fully understand opposing views.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tennis, I know Paul has zero chance. That is why I am sick of this country and everything our government now represents. Nothing will change until all hell breaks loose.Just isn't possible to radically change our government.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing changed with FDR's election?
With Nixon's?
With Truman's?
With Reagan's?

Are you high?

[/ QUOTE ]

FDR, yes.

The others, no. We've been a welfare state ever since FDR. There have been minor changes here and there, but Paul supporters want a drastic change in the nature of our government, which most certainly has not happened under any president since FDR. Not a single president since then has tried to vastly overhaul the american government and succeeded.

Re: presidential election
 

Thank you Danny. You said it perfectly.

FDR is truly the last president to radically change our country. What exactly did Nixon do, some foreign policy issues that any pres would have had to face, also some domestic integration issues that also would have been handled by any pres. Truman what the atomic bombs on Japan, or the creation of Israel, creation of NATO or the UN? Reagan? LOL but nothing has truly changed with any of those last 3. I mean really some spiffy foreign policies that had to happen but nothing truly radical in regards to within our nation. Ron Paul wants to do this and no one else running gives a damn.

Re: presidential election
 

unfortunately Ron Paul also wants to change a few things in a very, very bad way. And this is in large part why his numbers will not change.

--> Politics

Re: presidential election
 

Being as how this is a sports betting page; I'd love to hear what everyone thinks the candidates actual chances are. Where is the value?

Personally if I could figure out how to use intrade I'd load up on Romney for GOP nominee at 24.1. He will win Iowa and that number is bound to spike.

Re: presidential election
 

Damn, McCain at 6.8 is a steal as he certainly has a better than 15 to 1 shot at getting the nod and there will most likely be a few spikes here as primaries approach too.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line, do you guys think I am ready to elect a female President?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP, I'm guessing.

Re: presidential election
 

Bodog has RP at +250 to win the Dem nomination. LOL. Wish they offered a no like 5 Dimes does. The no line on RP there is -1700 which is good value as I see the fair line here at -10000 max. However, I don't think the ROI over the period of time it will take to settle warrants it. If it settled faster, it would also act as a nice hedge on my happiness and potentially on my bottom line as well.

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line, do you guys think I am ready to elect a female President?

I don't no matter how bad the Republican is.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP, I'm guessing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not one bit sir. I would gladly elect a woman or a black woman/man. It is what they believe in and what they stand for that will decide who I vote for. I don't agree with Hilary though on the majority of what she stands for.

FYP you really don't know me so don't type that shiat.

I plan to make a lot of money off this election and betting against Hilary because this COUNTRY isn't ready to elect a female President is why. Honestly I would rather elect a monkey than either choice we will probably be given by the Dems and Reps. And yes the monkey can be female or male, just as long as they can throw around shiat as good as the other politicians running can.

Re: presidential election
 

Fair enough.

It's just that in my experience the people who confidently assert that this country will never elect an X (where X = woman, black person, Mormon, etc.) tend to be projecting their own prejudices, or at least the prejudice of their region.

I don't personally detect any reason the US wouldn't elect a woman. There have been women leaders in tons of countries, including countries that are more fundamentally conservative than the US.

There is a very strong anti-Hillary bias out the imo, but I don't think it has much to do with her being female per se.

Re: presidential election
 

I like Huckabee at +700. He may be leading now in Iowa. Stranger things have happened.

Re: presidential election
 

Where are you seeing Huck at +700?

Re: presidential election
 

[ QUOTE ]
Where are you seeing Huck at +700?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bodog