River decision after strange play by opponent
 

Villain was about 28/19/2.7 after small sample of 21 hands.
Anyway his play was strange, because he checked a blank river after check/raising the turn.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero...?

What would your plan for the river be ?

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

he didn't cr the turn he b/3b it
i don't have any idea what's the best play on the river
i'd check behind because if he c/r again i hate to fold, and i want to know what he has.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

i see this play a lot (putting the last raise in on the turn and then checking the river). all i can really say is that some of the time he is being ultra sneaky and knows you can't resist value betting, the other time he was hoping for some type of reverse free showdown, but will call anyways. that's not really helpful at all, i know, but it is probably best to err on the side of caution and check here to see what he has and how he plays and you'd feel sick if he c/r you here and you got more value on the turn than you wanted anyways.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

you cant checkraise without first checking......

this check is really suspicious and I probably couldnt bring myself to folding to a CR against this sort of player so I check behind. This guys stats are pretty laggy for Fullring but obviously it is a very small sample size so whilst this guy isnt going to be a nit he could be anything from a regular tag who has gotten cards over that sample or he could be a wackjob maniac. I suspect he has pocket pairs 55+ here and you only beat 66, 99 and TT. You'd probably get paid off by A high here too though.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

I would check behind because I'm not bet-calling and I really don't want to bet-fold. Part of me says that he has a small pair and wants you to bluff with AK so he can pick you off, but another part of me says he has 77 and rivered a boat and can't keep himself from being fancy.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

I check behind, partly out of confusion, partly because often when I see people do this, they're getting a major case of FPS.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
you cant checkraise without first checking......


[/ QUOTE ]

Aint that the truth, lol ? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Its amazing what multi-tabling can do to your memory (or ability to read a hand history) ! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

As it happened, I did check behind on the river because I was suspicious and would have hated (what I would have considered to be almost insulting) the possibility of being check raised on the end !

I suppose this hand, shows just how difficult it can be to decide the correct play in an unusual situation, when you have a very limited (almost none) read on your opponent !

As CDC said, I suppose I got more than enough action on the turn already ! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

this is one of the very rare occasions where i would like to see results.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

* grunch *

That is some weird line from villain... btw, he didn't c/r turn, he bet/3-bet it.

Weird line is usually a bluff or (slowplayed) near nuts.

There's no value to get from bluffs or nuts. There's a small chance this is weird-donkey play with a smaller pair (testing your suspected(?) overs really hard here) but I still check the river.

I'm not betting the river because I don't think there's value there, better hands will not fold, and getting c/r again would be such a difficult fold in this big pot that I couldn't probably make it (probably should).

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

i bet the river

looks like he pumped a draw on the turn and caught the 7 on the end

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
i bet the river

looks like he pumped a draw on the turn and caught the 7 on the end

[/ QUOTE ]

76 ? it would have to be with diamonds I think. If the stats are to be trusted it's possible.

Another line that could make sense is that villain raised preflop with a medium-small pair, waited to turn to see if it's safe (no broadways, diamonds) and then played it aggro with improved equity. After Hero didn't succumb to the aggression he's willing to go to showdown.

Hmm. It seems closer than I initially thought. Still find it it difficult to bet-fold this.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

check for me

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

It is really tough to put villain on a hand here because this line is so weird. Because he raised under the gun I guess another overpair is most likely. I check because I am confused.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
part of me says he has 77 and rivered a boat and can't keep himself from being fancy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the first thought I had when I read the OP.

[ QUOTE ]
I check because I am confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly. If I am ahead, then props to him for confusing me enough to save himself from being value-bet on the river.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
Another line that could make sense is that villain raised preflop with a medium-small pair, waited to turn to see if it's safe (no broadways, diamonds) and then played it aggro with improved equity. After Hero didn't succumb to the aggression he's willing to go to showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

For Tyler and others that may have been interested to know what villain had, Mitke made a very good guess.

After I checked behind on the river, villain showed T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

By the way, I thought that my turn raise was reasonable as I considered it unlikely that villain would have AA-QQ as he did not cap pf and he then c/c the flop.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I thought that my turn raise was reasonable as I considered it unlikely that villain would have AA-QQ as he did not cap pf and he then c/c the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your turn raise is perfectly good IMO. Value and protection.

I wouldn't fold to the 3-bet either in this big pot. 88 is the most likely hand he has to beat you that would 3-bet this turn. I agree he'd have played AA-QQ faster preflop and flop. JJ or even QQ are not totally out of the question but rare.

55 and 22 are quite unlikely here based on preflop. AQ-AT diamonds are possible but not very likely either.

---
I can understand Villain's line preflop and flop.

His goal on the turn must be to either extract the most value or win the pot - both are fine. Winning 6.25BB pot vs. two opponents on the turn is a good result IMO.

Betting out protects against Hero taking a free card. A good line I think. Villain probably cannot count on Hero betting overcards on this dry board.

I'm really struggling to reason why he 3-bet.

Ok, pot is big but Hero has now showed strength by raising his turn donk on a dry board. This should signal a strong hand, when combined with preflop and flop line it should read as an overpair TT+ or rarely AK-AT diamonds.

Vs. an extremely weak-tight Hero there might be some fold equity in turn 3bet - river lead but not much. He's story just isn't consistent enough to get folds in this big pot.

Should Villain have folded to Hero's turn raise then getting 10.25:2? Probably. What do you think?

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

Grunch

This line makes no sense at all. The only hands I can put him on at all are maybe 99, TT. Why would he check a full house or something? Maybe 8d7d a flush draw that picked up an OESD? Doesn't really make sense for him to raise that in EP though. No hand with a five in it either. Or an eight. Maybe he doesn't cap QQ pf? IDK. Wouldn't some kind of Ace high flush draw prefer to bet/raise the flop? Wow, this just doesn't add up. I bet/call because I think the chance he bluff raises the river are greater than him value raising it even though both seem possible given how it was played. Or you could just go to showdown now. Never bet/fold IMO.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

grunching

let's see what the range for UTG would be:
His possible range: 99+, less QQ-AA. maybe 89d suited. He's pretty loose and raises quite a fair bit preflop.

I can think that he is likely to have 89 diamond suited, given he might be raising the turn for value, since he has a flush draw and hit top pair. The reason he didn't raise on flop? his position dun allow him to get a free card, so he just called to pay cheaply.

possible?

But I would bet/call on the river.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

I'd just check behind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

[ QUOTE ]
Should Villain have folded to Hero's turn raise then getting 10.25:2? Probably. What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that it is hard to fold an overpair to the board, particularly in a big pot (although my turn raise seemed to represent TT+).

I had also taken a few beats at the table, so he may have considered that I never had the best hand. lol [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

If I had been villian, I would have preferred a b/c, c/c , c/c line to the one he chose.

Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
 

Meh, no value in a river bet, you won't win when called. Check behind and lose to 5x/64/etc or beat 88-TT/Adxd.

Edit: to clarify, yeah, he'll call with 88-TT, but that's less than 60% of his range, and if he does c/r you have a hard time folding because it could STILL be 88-TT.