UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Here's my reasoning...

All we know from the first fight is that Silva is better in the clinch. That's *all* we know. The fight was too short to figure out anything else.

Franklin knows to stay out of the clinch this time, and he knows better than to try to tap out a Nogeria black belt from the bottom. To get on top of Silva he's going to need to shoot from the outside, or risk getting in the clinch that killed him last time to get a takedown.

Leaving Franklin the option to strike from the outside. Throw some jabs, try to out-point Silva to a decision, or try to tag him with an overhand for a KO. Silva CAN NOT AFFORD to go to the scorecards. Any close round will likely be scored to Franklin, IMO.

While Silva has a lot more options at his disposal, it is entirely within the realm of possibility for Franklin to walk out with the strap. Especially since the UFC want the strap on him, from a marketing perspective.


I think there's a little value in Silva, but not much.

Thoughts?





BTW, Does anyone else think that Timmmmah as a dog to a striker that has no big wins, and hasn't fought in a year is a gift on a silver platter??

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Anderson Silva > Rich Franklin
Brandon Vera > Tim Sylvia
Eric Schafer vs Stephan Bonnar - cant give a proper estimation
Alan Belcher vs Kalib Starnes - cant give a proper estimation

I think only vera is worth betting here.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anderson Silva > Rich Franklin
Brandon Vera > Tim Sylvia
Eric Schafer vs Stephan Bonnar - cant give a proper estimation
Alan Belcher vs Kalib Starnes - cant give a proper estimation

I think only vera is worth betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly do you think vera is worth betting? I'm just curious, I've been mulling over that line for the longest time.

Vera is a multi-dimensional fighter and the blueprint to beating tim has been laid out and vera has all the tools to do it...but is that enough for him to be a 2:1 favorite? Seriously, he's fighting a guy that has an IRON chin, has a HUGE reach advantage, and has way more octagon experiece.

Is it going to be that easy for vera to close the distance and impose his will on the clumsy giant that hits like a freight truck?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

svj,

First off, I highly disagree with this statement:

[ QUOTE ]
Silva CAN NOT AFFORD to go to the scorecards. Any close round will likely be scored to Franklin, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I have more faith in the judges to not be swayed by the crowd, but also 1) Silva has a style that judges like and 2) he holds the belt. I also disagree that the UFC wants the belt on Franklin (or on him more than Silva). Silva has a very fan-friendly, high-action, knockout striking style. Fans like that. I think Anderson can sell lots of PPVs, but the MW division is really weak right now - especially compared to the other 4 divisions at the moment. If Silva gets through Franklin and can get another fight or two against really top caliber opponents, I think he has the look and style to be a really big star. However, I don't really know who the UFC can go out and get that can be a really big fight at that weight.

Unfortunately, I haven't seen Franklin's fight with MacDonald, and I can't remember if I've seen the Okami fight. I know how it went because I read the results, but I'm not sure if I saw it (I think I did). I do know that Rich didn't look like a worldbeater against Yushin, and I have some doubts about his mental state/heart at the moment. I don't like to look too much into small things, but after Anderson knocked out Marquardt, they cut to Rich for about 5 seconds. Rich looks at the camera, gives a fist, and they cut back to Silva in the ring. Rich looks like he wants to stay as far away from the cage as possible. Ace may end up on the same path as Rampage. Lose to Silva in the clinch, get a couple wins under your belt, then lose in pretty remarkable fashion. Rampage "knew better" to stay out of the clinch, but he couldn't (and couldn't again against Shogun). Not saying Rich will fall prey to it again, but it's not for certain that he can avoid it either.

There's a lot to like about Anderson in this fight. Since his lost to Diaju Takase in Pride, he's gone 10 and 2. One loss was a freak flying heel hook from Ryo Chonan and the other is a fluky DQ loss for an up-kick to the head to Yushin Okami. He's looked very good in his 4 UFC fights outside of the Lutter fight (where I believe he was coming off surgery to both knees). He has an iron jaw, legit world class striking, and can competently fight off his back. He doesn't look like the kind of fighter that might get complacent with a belt, as he shows a lot of passion after his wins. I've also read that he has a chip on his shoulder with the UFC for putting this fight on in Ohio again.

I put a small bet on Sylvia too, though I'm gonna feel dirty watching that fight.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with UFC 77 and/or MMA betting, and there are threads in Sporting Events on El Diablo's forum that this is discussed.

It is disappointing, though.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with UFC 77 and/or MMA betting, and there are threads in Sporting Events on El Diablo's forum that this is discussed.

It is disappointing, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

were you the same guy who was saying the frank tv thread didn't belong in Sporting Events? if so, do you think you might be able to figure out the point i am making here?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I'm a nit about threads staying on topic, big deal.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Something about getting +150 on Tim seems too good to be true. I know I have to be missing something here.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Something about getting +150 on Tim seems too good to be true. I know I have to be missing something here.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe it has to do with the recent trend of multi-dimensional fighters destroying 1-D fighters.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

So, in news that may seem off topic, but potentially has a huge impact on UFC 77...Couture retired today. Is Silvia-Vera now a title fight?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Not anymore - Randy just left the UFC at 11am today. Methinks we may see Fedor/Randy in 2008... [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, in news that may seem off topic, but potentially has a huge impact on UFC 77...Couture retired today. Is Silvia-Vera now a title fight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Couture didn't retire, he resigned from the UFC. His contract runs up in 9 months, so maybe we see Fedor/Randy then?

I seriously hope Sylvia/Vera doesn't become a title fight.
Nogueira is the most deserving fighter, though I don't know who you throw him in with. Winner of Vera/Sylvia? Gonzaga? Arlovski? Kongo? The HW division is a mess with Cro Cop's losses, the failure to sign Fedor, and Randy leaving.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I think winner of Verra/Sylvia and the winner of Kongo/Noguiera at UFC 79 should get the title shot.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

My God... just found out now. The HW division's really screwed now.

The thought of Timmah being champ again made me throw up a little in my mouth.

Ouch. The guys in UFC marketing are SOOOO cheering for Vera this PPV.

Here's my viewpoint:

Nogs beats Kongo 75% of the time. Nogs gets on top easy enough, and rides to a decision. Kongo is pretty short on the ground-bottom department.... Nogs may even pick up a sub.

Sylvia beats Vera what, 60% of the time? (that one's a crapshoot, Vera hasn't been tested by anyone with skills)

If Kongo upsets Nogs, I say Kongo and Sylvia are 50/50. And all you need is a couple of bent judges to make it advantage Kongo.

Vera vs. Kongo ... does Vera have takedowns and wrestling? I haven't seen enough of him to know. If yes, he's the fav. If he's a striker only, he's gonna get mauled.

Sylvia beats Nogs 85% of the time. Nog has neither sufficient takedown skill, or a large enough BJJ skill gap to get a tapout within 5x5min rounds.

Nogs and Vera? Once again.... does Vera have any ground game? No idea.


Thoughts?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Mikey: Hey man, what's shakin?

I gotta disagree on who the front office wants to win.
Absolutely, Silva puts on exciting fights. He's one of my favorite fighters, in fact. (The skinny guy can fight, too!)

From a marketing perspective, the ability to give a good interview is more important than the ability to give a good fight.

Tito, for example, gets paid what, 10 times as much as the other B class LHW fighters? Why? Because he gives great interview.

The casual fan pays to see exciting talkers like Tito kick ass or get killed. Not to see exciting fighters like Roger Huerta.

Sure, after the PPV the casual fans will say "Man, that lightweight fight was f*ckin' awesome! Fight of the night! What was that lil Mexican guys name again?"

Silva doesn't speak English, and therefore, can't promote PPVs on Good Morning America, or Regis and Kelly, Letterman, etc. If I remember correctly, that was(is) Nick Diaz' and CroCop's beef with the UFC... they were uncomfortable doing so much promotional stuff, they just want to fight.

Of course, that's just my opinion. And opinions are like [censored]. Everyone's got one.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
My God... just found out now. The HW division's really screwed now.

The thought of Timmah being champ again made me throw up a little in my mouth.

Ouch. The guys in UFC marketing are SOOOO cheering for Vera this PPV.

Here's my viewpoint:

Nogs beats Kongo 75% of the time. Nogs gets on top easy enough, and rides to a decision. Kongo is pretty short on the ground-bottom department.... Nogs may even pick up a sub.

Sylvia beats Vera what, 60% of the time? (that one's a crapshoot, Vera hasn't been tested by anyone with skills)

If Kongo upsets Nogs, I say Kongo and Sylvia are 50/50. And all you need is a couple of bent judges to make it advantage Kongo.

Vera vs. Kongo ... does Vera have takedowns and wrestling? I haven't seen enough of him to know. If yes, he's the fav. If he's a striker only, he's gonna get mauled.

Sylvia beats Nogs 85% of the time. Nog has neither sufficient takedown skill, or a large enough BJJ skill gap to get a tapout within 5x5min rounds.

Nogs and Vera? Once again.... does Vera have any ground game? No idea.


Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Vera has great mid-level BJJ and is an awesome wrestler.

Nog's BJJ gap between Sylvia is more than enough to submit Sylvia in 3X5 rounds let alone 5X5, did you mean his overall game and ability to bring it to the ground?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sylvia beats Nogs 85% of the time.
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
i think you may have just uttered the single most ridiculously inaccurate piece of handicapping in the entire history of 2+2's sports betting forum

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think you may have just uttered the single most ridiculously inaccurate piece of handicapping in the entire history of 2+2's sports betting forum

[/ QUOTE ]Oooo... I love fan mail.

Civility is something that happens to other people, huh? Fair enough.

No talk for you! Come back, one year!



BadBeat: hey man, sup?

[ QUOTE ]
Nog's BJJ gap between Sylvia is more than enough to submit Sylvia in 3X5 rounds let alone 5X5, did you mean his overall game and ability to bring it to the ground?

[/ QUOTE ]
Both. Timmah managed to keep Randy from securing a choke on his back for almost a full 5 minutes... and he was never in danger with Monson. Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying Timmah will be tapping anybody out anytime soon, but it certainly appears he's got good enough submission defence to survive any takedown that comes through the pipe.

Timmah's got great takedown defence. The best way to put him on his back is to tag him on the nose. Nogs doesn't have those kind of skills.

On the other side of that sword... who has Nogs tapped out that has any credible submission experience?

Zuluzihno don't count. Butterbean tapped him out.
Tamura? OK, perhaps.
2004 Herring?
2003 Crocop?
2002 Henderson?
Schilt? Sapp? Coleman? Goodridge?

This is not exactly a list of stellar submission fighters.

If you can point me to some evidence of Nogs tapping out guys skilled in submission defence other than Tamura, I'd be all ears.

The evidence I see points towards him being the submission version of Crocop. A guy great in his day, but time has passed him by. The game has caught up to him. Nogueria is no Couture.

But I'm trying to handicap, not stubbornly cling to my assertions.

If you can show me why, I'd happily change my opinion.

Hit me.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

You act like Nog has no striking. Timmay can be outstruck, both by getting tagged and TKO'd (Arlovski, almost Arlovski again and almost Randy), and by just being outclassed on his feet the entire fight (Randy).

I don't see why you think Sylvia's striking is ZOMG so much better than Nog's. Nog's striking is not that bad.

Also, keep in mind that Tim was just raped by a guy who many thought couldn't strike with him and would have trouble taking him down. Which is what you are saying about Nog.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

i was gonna write a long detailed explaination about why defending a RNC and keeping a midget in your guard has nothing to do with how you would fare against nogueria, then i remembered this fight isn't even rumored to be taking place, much less on an upcoming fight card

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

SVJ,

Not much. Stuck in Florida for a wedding in my girlfriend's family. Of course it's this Saturday, so I'm praying it's done early so I can catch the fight. Luckily, this family is pretty conservative and the wedding is small, so the reception won't go nuts.

Anyway, we're probably going to have to agree to disagree about A. Silva, although I'm probably giving Dana way too much credit. I understand your point though about going out and giving interviews in the mainstream press. I wasn't really thinking about that. I just don't think it's very hard to market a guy who's come into the UFC and finished every fight he's taken, and in spectacular fashion.

Also, Nog has pretty good striking. He trains with the Cuban national boxing team, so he's definitely capable on his feet. He's not going to KO many guys, though. If the UFC decides to go the mini-pseudo-tournament route, and Nog ends up with Sylvia for the belt, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. Nog has an absolute iron chin. The only time I've ever seen him rocked was the last fight against Herring where he leaned into a kick that ended up as a knee to his head.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

My picks:

[ QUOTE ]
Recommended plays:
I’m laying a lot of lumber on some heavy favorites because I feel they’re undervalued. This obviously presents a larger risk if you have a small bankroll or are using 1% or higher bankroll units. Feel free to scale down units to fit your bankroll considerations.

* Yushin Okami (-205) — 4.1 units to win 2 units
* Forrest Petz (+280) — no play recommended
* Matt Grice (+300) — .25 units to win .75 units
* Alvin Robinson (+135) — 1 unit to win 1.35 units
* Anderson Silva (-190) — 1.9 units to win 1 unit
* Stephan Bonnar (-325) — 3.25 units to win 1 units
* Kalib Starnes (-115) — no play recommended
* Tim Sylvia (+125) — .4 units to win .5 units


[/ QUOTE ]

My writeup:
http://mmajunkie.com/2007/10/18/perf...cks-for-ufc-77

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I got

Anderson Silva 3u to win 1.5u (-200)
Tim Sylvia 1.5u to win 2.4u (+160)
Yushin Okami 1.8u to win .75u (-240)
Alvin Robinson .5u to win .7u (+140)


Silva is better on the feet, hard to control even if you're on top unless you are matt hughes-esque, and he has 5 rounds to finish. I think Rich is in deep water here.

Brandon Vera has all the skills and tools to beat Tim Sylvia...one well placed shot and then a sub could mean the biggest win of his career and a title shot...but I don't see him executing it often enough for him to be that much of a favorite, looks more like 1:1 to me. Some factors would prevent me from betting Sylvia @ 1:1 though.

Yushin Okami - I think he's going to grind out Jason macDonald. MacDonald, IMO, has gotten really lucky with his run in the UFC, i dont think it's gonna continue. Personally I think MacDonald shoulda really focused on his standup, but I dont' think that's what happened.

Alvin Robinson is a beast and I think it will be a good fight.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

The best bet on the card (and in the UFC since Hughes/Gracie) is Sylvia over Brandon Vera. Vera has an insanely low chance of winning this fight by KO. Arlovski hit Tim with probably the loudest punch I've heard in the UFC and Tim won the fight anyways. Vera doesn't have anywhere near that kind of power with his hands, and Tim's height neutralizes the clinch. Also Tim's reach neutralizes leg kicks (ask Ricco what happens when you try leg kicking Tim)

I live in San Diego and trained at City Boxing in the past when Vera was associated with them. As long as I've known Brandon Vera, he's struggled with larger men. He competes in MMA as opposed to straight Muay Thai because he doesn't take punishment well and his straight boxing is below average (and I'm being kind).

If you pick Vera, you're basically saying that Tim's back surgery didn't go very well and that he's a shell of his former self. The only chance Vera has is Tim not coming ready to fight. Looking at the shape he was in at the weighin, that's not a factor at all.

Bet the house on Tim. I got in on this when it was +175 a few weeks ago, but even as low as even, this is still a no-brainer. Sylvia can win this by decision or 2nd/3rd round KO. Vera cannot win by knockout, will have an insanely difficult time winning by decision due to Tim's jab and will win by submission probably 1 in 10 or less. How exactly can he beat Tim?


EDIT:
Also, something to consider about the main event. I'm not betting the main event, I don't see much value in the line either way. I'm cheering for Rich, but the line is accurate IMO.
But anyways, Anderson had visa problems and didn't make it into Ohio until a couple days ago. Both he and Franklin are larger middleweights, so the cut is important. Anderson's cut was rushed due to circumstance. While both he and Franklin made it comfortably, this can't be underestimated. Franklin's gas tank is a huge edge over Anderson's (which is not very deep at all). In a 5 round fight, this edge will be even bigger.
I think the logic of saying that Anderson has 5 rounds to put away Rich is faulty, not JUST because of the weight cut issues, but it's a factor. Anderson by 1st or 2nd round KO, but if Rich makes it into the 3rd round, he has either a late round GnP TKO or UD practically in the bag. If Rich survives the early storm, Anderson WILL gas.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
The best bet on the card (and in the UFC since Hughes/Gracie) is Sylvia over Brandon Vera. Vera has an insanely low chance of winning this fight by KO. Arlovski hit Tim with probably the loudest punch I've heard in the UFC and Tim won the fight anyways. Vera doesn't have anywhere near that kind of power with his hands, and Tim's height neutralizes the clinch. Also Tim's reach neutralizes leg kicks (ask Ricco what happens when you try leg kicking Tim)

I live in San Diego and trained at City Boxing in the past when Vera was associated with them. As long as I've known Brandon Vera, he's struggled with larger men. He competes in MMA as opposed to straight Muay Thai because he doesn't take punishment well and his straight boxing is below average (and I'm being kind).

If you pick Vera, you're basically saying that Tim's back surgery didn't go very well and that he's a shell of his former self. The only chance Vera has is Tim not coming ready to fight. Looking at the shape he was in at the weighin, that's not a factor at all.

Bet the house on Tim. I got in on this when it was +175 a few weeks ago, but even as low as even, this is still a no-brainer. Sylvia can win this by decision or 2nd/3rd round KO. Vera cannot win by knockout, will have an insanely difficult time winning by decision due to Tim's jab and will win by submission probably 1 in 10 or less. How exactly can he beat Tim?


EDIT:
Also, something to consider about the main event. I'm not betting the main event, I don't see much value in the line either way. I'm cheering for Rich, but the line is accurate IMO.
But anyways, Anderson had visa problems and didn't make it into Ohio until a couple days ago. Both he and Franklin are larger middleweights, so the cut is important. Anderson's cut was rushed due to circumstance. While both he and Franklin made it comfortably, this can't be underestimated. Franklin's gas tank is a huge edge over Anderson's (which is not very deep at all). In a 5 round fight, this edge will be even bigger.
I think the logic of saying that Anderson has 5 rounds to put away Rich is faulty, not JUST because of the weight cut issues, but it's a factor. Anderson by 1st or 2nd round KO, but if Rich makes it into the 3rd round, he has either a late round GnP TKO or UD practically in the bag. If Rich survives the early storm, Anderson WILL gas.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I think the Sylvia line is juicy, I have to point out that the gameplan to beat Sylvia HAS been outlined. It's not that Vera will KO him with knees or punches, but Tim hasn't been aggressive enough in his last few fights and we've seen that his jab is NOT always effective enough to win him a decision. Ricco may have no been doing well with the leg kicks, but I think it's safe to say that Vera's footwork and standup are closer to the quickness of AA and AA's leg kicks were very effective in their 3rd fight. Why he stopped using them is anyone's guess (he claims his leg was broken, I beleive him).

The reason the 5 rounds favors Silva, the finisher, is because Rich's best shot is probably a decision. But remember that a percent of the time that it's going Rich's way by the 4th or 5th round, Silva can still finish it and win the fight. Sounds obvious, but I still think it's a valid and sometimes overlooked aspect of the fight. But what do I know, aren't you the man who invented such genius strategies as timing out with storm? And you train @ city boxing...

GL though, hope sylvia pulls through for both of us.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is vera +120 ill take that line

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

+120 is far too low for me to consider arbing this since I feel so strongly that Tim has this one. I might start thinking about it at the +175-+200 range, but even then that would ONLY be because I'm one of the biggest nits to walk the earth and not because of any doubt in how I see this fight going down.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
+120 is far too low for me to consider arbing this since I feel so strongly that Tim has this one. I might start thinking about it at the +175-+200 range, but even then that would ONLY be because I'm one of the biggest nits to walk the earth and not because of any doubt in how I see this fight going down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I would only arb if both sides were +EV IMO and I guess i was asking you what you'd set the line at, but your response indicates you would arb before you thought there was PURE EV in the line(arb for risk aversion/guaranteed payout).

So basically you think Sylvia should be a -210 favorite if the line were set properly?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I think somewhere in that range is accurate. As much as I've talked up Sylvia and as much as I think he's going to win this one easily, we are still talking about a guy coming off back surgery. Everyone is SAYING everything went swimmingly, but you can't realistically go beyond that on a man coming off major surgery. Once you start moving past that number, one would be inclined to bet Vera just on the chance that Tim's health might still be in question.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think somewhere in that range is accurate. As much as I've talked up Sylvia and as much as I think he's going to win this one easily, we are still talking about a guy coming off back surgery. Everyone is SAYING everything went swimmingly, but you can't realistically go beyond that on a man coming off major surgery. Once you start moving past that number, one would be inclined to bet Vera just on the chance that Tim's health might still be in question.

[/ QUOTE ]

last time I got +160-+175 on what I perceived to be a 68% favorite, I bet 49.71% of my life on it.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Anyone know a good place in Bangkok where they will be airing this fight?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Well...I can't believe you people will bet against Brandon Vera. This guy is crazy sick in my books and just waiting to hit it big.
He's got mad skills.
He's not going to come at Sylvia with punches. Look for some huge kick, Vera got the craziest kicks. I see him just wailing on him with some short leg kicks to slow that monster down and then he'll mix it up with some body/head kicks.

GUARANTEE Sylvia is going down.

I rarely vouche for fighters and only when i know they will win --- Brandon Vera will win.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well...I can't believe you people will bet against Brandon Vera. This guy is crazy sick in my books and just waiting to hit it big.
He's got mad skills.
He's not going to come at Sylvia with punches. Look for some huge kick, Vera got the craziest kicks. I see him just wailing on him with some short leg kicks to slow that monster down and then he'll mix it up with some body/head kicks.

GUARANTEE Sylvia is going down.

I rarely vouche for fighters and only when i know they will win --- Brandon Vera will win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a last minute attempt to move the lines back into Sylvia's favor so you can bet? If so, i like the post

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Is there anywhere online where I can order the event, like ufc.tv and how is the quality?? I want to stream it to my tv from my computer, my cable provider wont let me order this ufc and I have nowhere to watch it have to stay home..

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

what is the policy here about linking pirated online feeds in threads like this

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anywhere online where I can order the event, like ufc.tv and how is the quality?? I want to stream it to my tv from my computer, my cable provider wont let me order this ufc and I have nowhere to watch it have to stay home..

[/ QUOTE ]

Streaming it from you comuter to ur tv is up to you and your hardware setup...but www.ufc.com allows you to purchase the event through their website.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

a good policy anywhere is not to share them lightly-- they only have so much bandwidth.

but in general 2p2 is pretty uneasy about sharing stuff like that.