Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

42'ish left. Top 30 paid.

I have 80k. MP has ~220k.

Blinds 3k/6k 500a.

MP's open range is not huge but wider than almost anyone at the table. He's one of the only aggro players at the table. about 2 rounds ago he raised preflop to 14k (2k/4k blinds) and I shoved for 60k with AK. He took quite awhile before folding and I showed.

MP opens for 20k.

I have 55.

Fold or shove?

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

fold. hes gonna be getting it too good when it comes back to him to fold.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

He'll be getting about 1.88:1 to call when it gets back to him.

Let's say he open raises: 22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo which is ~18% of hands.

Let's say his calling range is 77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ which is ~ 6.5% of hands. So about 36% of the time he raises, he will have a hand in the range he will call with.

If you push you will win the pot of 33,000 64% of the time and get called and be a 1.85:1 dog.

When you are called and win you will have:

193,000 chips x .35 = 67550

When he calls and you lose:

80,000 x .65 = -52,000

So you have a net +cEV simply from him calling with this range, plus you throw in the added 21,000 chips you net from the times he folds to your push and this becomes a seemingly obvious push.

My ranges could be way off, but I think even if you adjust his ranges slightly, you would still come out with a large +cEV.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I'm in the CO btw.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

eh ok, i guess

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Gotta push it.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

looks like w/ 3 to act and his position being earlier than i'd like(his raising range is prob tighter) i don't like it much. obv if u were bb and he was co it would be insta.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I think this is really, really borderline. Assuming illini's range is correct (and I think it's a bit tighter, but whatever), OP has to push tighter than 99+,AQs+,AKo for this to be correct to fold for him. When you take the large chip disparity into account as well, I doubt you have that much FE. This assumes he's a thinking aggro player and not some spewmonkey.

I don't see your position specified, but if there are 3 left to act that pushes this towards a pretty clear fold.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

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Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

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.
Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb.

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Pretty easy push versus fairly loose player on bubble of live tournament.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

This seems really close. If you think you can get his marginal hands to fold (assuming he's opening a lot of marginal stuff) then I'd shove, if not I think you have to pass. I could go either way depending on my impression of the player and how I think he views me. Some people are just not going to fold the 2nd time you shove on them here while others will see that you showed AK and be manipulated the way you're hoping. Also it depends a lot on how wide you think he's opening. Wider than the others can still be pretty damn tight as some live tables so I'm not entirely sure how to interpret that. also I don't think the bubble is relevant with 42 left and 30 paying btw.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

It depends on whether you want to gamble, but this is close to cEV even if villain always calls, so I would have a hard time passing.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I dunno.. I think this is close if he's competent and knows we're competent. We don't have a strong read like that, so I don't really think it's close.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

What are you putting villian on betgo?

BTW, the fact there are three to act behind us besides villian is very relevant here.

It's close, but given the information about the table in general it's probably a push. I'd like to know an exact range OP thinks this villian would be raising here.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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What are you putting villian on betgo?

BTW, the fact there are three to act behind us besides villian is very relevant here.

It's close, but given the information about the table in general it's probably a push. I'd like to know an exact range OP thinks this villian would be raising here.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,054,764,800 games 0.005 secs 410,952,960,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.381% 44.10% 00.28% 906209160 5720946.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 55.619% 55.34% 00.28% 1137113748 5720946.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


---

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

oh then hell yea PUSH PUSH PUSH

based on op's info regarding the table and because villian is not acting from LP I was thinking
A10+, A8s+, KJ+, 77+
against this range it's not clearcut because I don't think you have much FE against most opponents plus there are three to act behind, etc etc

against your given range, I definitely push

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I just took top 15% in PokerStove. Against top 8% it is thus. You have people behind you, but you also have pot odds.

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.854% 39.60% 00.25% 447520992 2873340.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 60.146% 59.89% 00.25% 676852968 2873340.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I actually shove this situations a lot more than I should, but they usually work out. Somehow, from my limited experience, you always have more folding equity live than you originally thought.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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I actually shove this situations a lot more than I should, but they usually work out. Somehow, from my limited experience, you always have more folding equity live than you originally thought.

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that is actually a very good point especially if this table is playing as I think OP is describing

When I look at this hand as me being villian there's very little FE on this hand but I am not villian and this is not an online AI/call fest. You probably have a lot more FE than I am giving credit for and thus it's probably not as close as I originally thought and is a shove.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,054,764,800 games 0.005 secs 410,952,960,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.381% 44.10% 00.28% 906209160 5720946.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 55.619% 55.34% 00.28% 1137113748 5720946.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


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this is pretty close to his range but throw in 22-66 also.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Aside form villain maybe playing weak/tight, look at it from villain's point of view. This is the bubble and you pushed apparently having no FE. He is not putting you on 55. Even if you are loose, he has to assume something like 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ for you, and he needs something like that sane range to call against that range even with the pot odds.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I shoved. SB reshoved for 85k. MP tanked and eventually folded AJ.

No A, J or 5 on the board and I'm out.

I was thinking about this hand the whole way home thinking I should have just folded my 5's. But it's good to know the consensus here was to push.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Just to add, foxwoods players tend to be weak/tight/nitty in my experiance more than anywhere else I've played (AC/Vegas). It might be different in this big buy in tourney, but that's another reason to push.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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Just to add, foxwoods players tend to be weak/tight/nitty in my experiance more than anywhere else I've played (AC/Vegas). It might be different in this big buy in tourney, but that's another reason to push.

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oh fwiw...there was this hand villain and I played about 2 hours before at another table:

I have 250k
Villian has 170k
We are #1 and #2 in chips ovarall atm.

800/1600/200a

He raises UTG to 4500. I call on button with 78o

Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He checks ([censored]), I check

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet 10k, he calls

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet 17k, he calls w/A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

I hate that flop check, get some value in there. There are a fair amount of cards that you hate that could come (any club, any J. Villian might be going for a C/R and then you have a great chane to get it AI.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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I hate that flop check, get some value in there.

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value from what? I doubt one of these foxwoods idiots is going to c/r me on that board with an overpair/set. I didnt have a great read at the time but basically read was this:

fairly aggro preflop, half-decent player, likely straightfoward tagfish.

So yeah i check the flop all day vs this guy to get value on the turn from AK/AQ.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.619% 55.34% 00.28% 1137113748 5720946.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


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That's his opening range, but definitely not his calling range.

I'd say he's calling with AQs+,88+.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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I shoved. SB reshoved for 85k. MP tanked and eventually folded AJ.


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forgot...sb had QQ

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I hate that flop check, get some value in there.

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value from what? I doubt one of these foxwoods idiots is going to c/r me on that board with an overpair/set. I didnt have a great read at the time but basically read was this:

fairly aggro preflop, half-decent player, likely straightfoward tagfish.

So yeah i check the flop all day vs this guy to get value on the turn from AK/AQ.

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You were there and I wasn't so obv you're in a better position to know the situation, but personally I think I would bet because he has JJ-AA a fair amount and might call down, or at least call the flop.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

Ya if his range is that wide this is an easy shove.

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.619% 55.34% 00.28% 1137113748 5720946.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


[/ QUOTE ]

That's his opening range, but definitely not his calling range.

I'd say he's calling with AQs+,88+.

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Wtf. Why? OP didn't specify aggro spewmonkey with a gigantic disparity between opening range and calling range. Without that type of read, I still think a shove here is wrong. Look at the math and don't just go 'pooooosh'. I also really hope everyone considers the three players left to act, they represent at least a 10% chance to get a second caller (whose range obviously has 55 crushed).

Re: Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand
 

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I shoved. SB reshoved for 85k. MP tanked and eventually folded AJ.


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forgot...sb had QQ

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About 8% of the time one of the remaining players has JJ+,AK, in which case they push. You are about 35% against that range, but you get decent pot odds, since raiser usually folds.

The push is somewhat cEV+. I wouldn't kick myself for what you did, but I wouldn't kick myself for folding here either.