[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Villain is Danibus, a good TAG running 23.4/12.9/1.5 over 300+ hands. I have never really tangled with him, and he doesnt get too out of line. I have called him on one bluff and shown a bluff but we have not really gotten involved.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($187.95)
SB ($300)
BB ($653.50)
UTG ($1046.95)
Hero ($824.70)
CO ($206.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $5.25</font>, Hero calls $5.25, CO calls $5.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($22.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $18</font>, Hero calls $18, CO folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($58.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $37.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $101</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $338.5</font>, Hero calls $200.

River: ($698) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $722.70, and is all in</font>

Is this a fold?

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Insta call that [censored]


NVM, this has to be KK, AA.

But I still hate folding, this is sooo sick.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Nope. Don't call turn if you're going to fold on river. Don't raise turn and call unless you are willing to play for stacks.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Fold. I'd expect to see KK or AA here almost always. Almost no one, especially a nit like this is going to make megabig bets like that without at least KK here. Maybe 44 is possible but I think you're beat here.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise turn and call unless you are willing to play for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't really agree w/ this. Raising, at the time, was the most +EV play. Just because he 3-bet doesn't make the decision to raise wrong...and we don't have to necessarily play for stacks here either given how deep we are. I mean like 95% of the time, he's just calling this raise and probably paying off a (now) much larger river bet. Saying we shouldn't raise turn is being too results-oriented IMO.

As for the actual hand, wow, I'm tempted to dump the turn. Definitely dumping river though. Of course I rarely ever play this deep (like most here)...so take that FWIW.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

TBH I don't think there's much value in raising this turn.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
TBH I don't think there's much value in raising this turn.

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Then do you raise flop?
That would make no sense not to raise. Do you call flop, call turn, raise/fold river?

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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TBH I don't think there's much value in raising this turn.

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Calling down and him tabling AK would tilt me so hard.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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TBH I don't think there's any value in raising this turn, unless villain has exactly AK.

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the ace on the turn should shut down all hands that didnt improve. unless villain has now made 2 pair, (and worse 2 pair hands then AK this deep will still be wary of the other possible holdings) then villain will be shutting down on that card alot.

the only value raising the turn has is it makes it easier to get our stacks in by the river without an overbet.

im totally undecided wether i get it in herre or not

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise turn and call unless you are willing to play for stacks.

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Don't really agree w/ this. Raising, at the time, was the most +EV play. Just because he 3-bet doesn't make the decision to raise wrong...and we don't have to necessarily play for stacks here either given how deep we are. I mean like 95% of the time, he's just calling this raise and probably paying off a (now) much larger river bet. Saying we shouldn't raise turn is being too results-oriented IMO.

As for the actual hand, wow, I'm tempted to dump the turn. Definitely dumping river though. Of course I rarely ever play this deep (like most here)...so take that FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, we are saying the same thing.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

he cant have ak?

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ya, we are saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right...I just assumed you meant raising turn was bad. My fault. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

dude instacall...

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
dude instacall...

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

wow such a sick spot, i think its pretty close based entirely on whether he can do this with AK even some of the time. Also i suppose if 44 is part of his range.

Imo KK isnt nearly as large a part of his range as AA, why would he contbet so large with top set on such a dry flop unless there is some deeper level thinking which im not gonna give him credit for at 150NL.

I prob call and pray he has AK but most of the time i think he shows up with AA

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

ya im in the instacall camp by how you got to this river. This is AK alot as well as 44. I wouldnt call turn if i wasnt trying to get it in.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Why can't he have 44, AK, just as much as AA, KK here?
The only hand in your range that beats those hand is exactly what you hold given pf.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

guys its 5 buyins deep. itswc not insta anything. set the koolaid aside and think this one thru

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
guys its 5 buyins deep. itswc not insta anything. set the koolaid aside and think this one thru

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah huh....

we have an underepped set and you want to fold...

lolz.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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[ QUOTE ]
TBH I don't think there's much value in raising this turn.

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Calling down and him tabling AK would tilt me so hard.

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not saying this is a fold as played, but fwiw, when hero raises the turn bet, he represents a better hand than AK (assuming he hasn't been out of line).

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
guys its 5 buyins deep. itswc not insta anything. set the koolaid aside and think this one thru

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously. Jesus Christ people...this is rarely ever 44/AK w/ these stacks.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guys its 5 buyins deep. itswc not insta anything. set the koolaid aside and think this one thru

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah huh....

we have an underepped set and you want to fold...

lolz.

[/ QUOTE ]

how is it underrepped?

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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we have an underepped set and you want to fold...

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How in the hell is our hand under-repped?

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

i assume he's saying that because we didn't shove over the turn raise. to me, this is a stretch. furthermore, saying it's an instacall indicates to me that not much thought was put into the hand.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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i assume he's saying that because we didn't shove over the turn raise. to me, this is a stretch. furthermore, saying it's an instacall indicates to me that not much thought was put into the hand.

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Yeah, shoving turn would be massive spew IMO.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

I talk to Danibus or however he spells his name in the chat when we play, and he's a good guy and I don't play him HU, but that's mainly because he's very, very nitty. He never ever has AK here. This is one of those folds I actually advocate here and I also make at the time.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

actually I was just reviewing some of his hands in PT and he's not that nitty. I've actually got him running at 36/16/2.1 over 2k hands, but a lot of those are super short handed I think. he might just be a little nittier vs. me so do you have any idea how he perceives you?

I'm just trying to put myself in his shoes if he had AK/44 and I'm really not sure he's doing with them. I think he might play them similarly. really, REALLY gross spot

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

if you fold river you should fodl to turn 3bet

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

lol this hand gets more disgusting the more I think about it ugghgh

I also knew results beforehand which might be making me biased

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

deep games are sick.

given the information in the op, i think i prefer calling his turn bet, raising a river bet, and probably folding to a shove.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

This is so sick given description of villian. On your first raise on the turn did he tank for long? I agree with the people who said you shouldn't raise the turn if you don't want to play for stacks. As played I still think you have to fold to the 3-bet on the turn. This is the problem - it's so hard not to automatically be wanting to play for stacks with a set here on this board. I don't have much experience playing this deep - I'm not sure what the correct line is here at all. Calling on the turn and then just calling on the river seems ridiculous with your hand. Calling on the turn and then if he checks value-bet the river for AK is another option - I mean calling after his initial turn bet without raising. Nothing seems particularly attractive.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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I agree with the people who said you shouldn't raise the turn if you don't want to play for stacks.

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I don't really think this is true at all. someone already said this earlier, but you can raise the turn hoping to get value out of AK/AQ/44 or whatever else because he is generally (maybe not with 44) just calling your turn raise and now the pot is nice and big on the river to get a few hundred BBs in value off him. Also the alternative is to just call him down with the third nuts which seems weak.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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given the information in the op, i think i prefer calling his turn bet, raising a river bet, and probably folding to a shove.

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Yeah, I like this line better too now that I think about it. I mean the turn raise is really only designed to get value from two hands, AK/44. And he'll probably fire a 3rd barrel w/ something like AQ/AJ if we flat...and likely calls a raise because we look so FOS.

Although just raising turn isn't terrible either...meh, I'm still not really sure what I like best. I need to think about it some more.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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[ QUOTE ]
given the information in the op, i think i prefer calling his turn bet, raising a river bet, and probably folding to a shove.

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Yeah, I like this line better too now that I think about it. I mean the turn raise is really only designed to get value from one hand, AK. And he'll probably fire a 3rd barrel w/ something like AQ/AJ if we flat...and likely calls a raise because we look so FOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK might just be one hand but it makes up the majority of his range imo

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guys its 5 buyins deep. itswc not insta anything. set the koolaid aside and think this one thru

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah huh....

we have an underepped set and you want to fold...

lolz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ikes, I honestly think you are among the 3 best posters in SSNL, but your advice in this thread sucks.

I never said fold. I was posting from my cell phone in the car, and hadn't really decided what I thought of the hand at that point. But if you think this is an easy decision, you're making a hugely -EV strategic decision. This is a huge decision, and a hard one too. I'm just saying think it thru, but so many people are like ZOMG SET INSTAPOOSH NOTHINK

Our set is not underrepped. It's virtually the only hand we could possibly have. We might have AK once in a while, but we usually have exactly what we have. If we had bottom set we'd raise the flop, if we had top or 2nd set we'd push the turn. If we had any other hand we'd fold to the turn re-re-raise. The only hand that's left is 888.

What's worse is villain has to know this. I think OP was wrong when he described him as a "good TAG" because his stats look pretty passive TAGfish to me. When he makes a small bet on the turn he's either seeing where he is at or trying to generate action. Well he got the action he wanted and now he wants more. He has to know hero has a hand he wants to felt, but villain still wants to felt his.

IMO the only possible range for villain here is 44, KK, AA and rarely AK. Poker stove will probably tell me this is a super close decision, but I think there are two things that make it a fold.

One is he isn't going to have AK that often. Usually when he has AK he will play it differently. Not sure how, but I am pretty sure he doesn't normally go nuts on the turn &amp; river. This deep he will play a little pot control, and just call somewhere.

Two is this guy is pretty passive. He only raises half the hands he plays, and his postflop aggro is pretty low for someone so tight. Both of these things combined tell me he has a hand he is sure is a lock. 44 is still in his range, as is AA and AK, but I think AK is only in his range when he's a little on tilt or making a big mistake. IMO this is a grit &amp; fold. If you (OP) want to be mad at someone be mad at yourself for calling the turn raise without being sure you wanted to felt.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the people who said you shouldn't raise the turn if you don't want to play for stacks.

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I don't really think this is true at all. someone already said this earlier, but you can raise the turn hoping to get value out of AK/AQ/44 or whatever else because he is generally (maybe not with 44) just calling your turn raise and now the pot is nice and big on the river to get a few hundred BBs in value off him. Also the alternative is to just call him down with the third nuts which seems weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right - I misread the size of the pot on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] . There is still room for a value/pot bloating raise here. So raising the turn and folding to the turn 3-bet is the play right? And if he just calls the raise VB the river and fold to a crai? That would be so sick to get crai on that line though - like the HSP moment.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

Also, IMO raising the turn wasn't a mistake, although I like raising the flop more. The biggest mistake was calling the re-raise if you weren't sure you wanted to play stacks. By far.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think OP was wrong when he described him as a "good TAG" because his stats look pretty passive TAGfish to me.

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Meh...in deep games you can get away w/ cold-calling pre a lot more. It's probably even optimal in a lot of cases.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

I hadn't really thought of that. I was kind of assuming that most of the stats were on 100 bb games.

Re: [150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb\'s Deep
 

tldr but why would we raise the flop with bottom set but not middle set on the flop?