Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I play limit pretty close to never (normally 5/10 and 10/20 NL) but decided to try it out at the Bellagio over the weekend. In general, there were never more than 2 bets on any street and very rarely more than one on the turn or river. Most of the people in the game are old and crotchety calling stations so this is to be expected.

My opponent in this hand is a bit different; he looks to be in his twenties and posted in the CO for his first hand the hand before. He raised that hand, got 3 callers, then bet the flop 4-way and everyone folded. That's all the read I have.

The hand:

Someone limps, villain limps, I raise QQ on the button, blinds fold, limpers call and 3 of us see a Q32r flop. They check, I bet, first limper folds, villain calls.

Turn is a 4

Villain checks, I bet, he checkraises, I 3bet, he instantly 4bets...

What's his range? Is the correct play to keep raising and, if so, at what point do you put him on 65 and slow down?

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

raise once more then call down

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I think I just call down from the instant four-bet. If he was willing to put in lots of action with two pair or a set, or top pair, make a note of it for later.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

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at what point do you put him on 65 and slow down?

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6-5 or A-5

He could also be going wild here with a smaller set he slowplayed or spiked, or (less likely) a PP, or maybe even A-4 (is there a 2-flush on the board)? And, you've got some outs to beat a straight. So, I wouldn't mind putting 3 more bets in total (UI). Dumb question: Is it a 5- or 4-bet cap?

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

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at what point do you put him on 65 and slow down?

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6-5 or A-5

He could also be going wild here with a smaller set he slowplayed or spiked, or (less likely) a PP, or maybe even A-4 (is there a 2-flush on the board)? And, you've got some outs to beat a straight. So, I wouldn't mind putting 3 more bets in total (UI). Dumb question: Is it a 5- or 4-bet cap?

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No cap HU; 5-bet cap multiway. I think the turn card was the same suit as the queen so there was now a flush draw possible but I discounted the possibility of any flush draw other than 32s (i.e. 2 pair with the flush draw) since people in that game seemed to be too passive to put in that much action with a draw. Of course, this guy could've been the exception. I felt a lower set or straight were the most likely holdings for him when he instantly 4bet but wasn't too confident in that read as he'd just sat down and I don't have enough limit experience to have a good feel for what an unknown is capable of.

Anyway, I called the 4bet (instantly regretting it) and a 6 hit the river (no flush). He bet again and I just called. I was going to (obviously) raise a board-pairing river and possibly (like 50% likely if it felt right) any non-A,5,6 river as well, calling a 3-bet if that happened. I was also going to bet any river if checked to and make a decision if checkraised based on the card and whatever felt right (probably calling a lot of the time). Good/bad river plan?

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

Being an unknown, it's tough to balance his range here. Since he waited until the turn to raise, I think that either the turn helped him, or that he felt he was strong enough on the flop to slowplay.

If he felt he was strong on the flop, then either 33 or 22 are a big part of his range. He could also just be over aggressive with a big Q, like AQ or KQ, or even QJ if he's really aggressive. If he's super loose preflop, he might have 32s. I would discount somewhat all the non-set hands that I just mentioned though, since his play doesn't fit the normal way most people would play those hands (ie, most don't limp 32s, most raise AQ preflop, and most aren't taking something like KQ to 4-bets on the turn here)

If the turn helped him, then we are looking at 44, 43, A5, and 65. All 4 of these hands could easily be played the way that Villain played, even if he was sane.

So I think that you are probably ahead here. But I think that 4-bets is very close to the pivot point of value - the fulcrum if you will. And by that, I mean, it is the point where a raise from you stops getting value because he will only call with most hands worse than yours, but will reraise again with most hands better than yours.

So with position here, I'll just call the 4-bet now. Since he acts first on the river, you can ensure that at least one bet goes in there. If he bets, call. If he checks, bet. If the board pairs, you can raise his bet then.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

Also remember that as he keeps raising, his range narrows; thus, unless you have the nuts or he is a complete maniac, each extra bet you put in is worth less and less in terms of EV. 5 Bets is probably around when it becomes about 0 EV against an unknown.

An example: you flop middle set on a ragged board, the first bet you put in is worth almost the whole bet, the 12th is probably losing you money.

Results
 

Not fantastically interesting, but he had 43s for turned two pair. At the time, I felt like I left some bets on the table.

Re: Results
 

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Not fantastically interesting, but he had 43s for turned two pair. At the time, I felt like I left some bets on the table.


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I think you played it fine. Hopefully you had plenty of times to collect extra bets after this hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Especially live, 4 bets on this board is going to mean a straight a whole lot of the time and it'll suck to get 6-bet on the turn if that's the case.

I also don't like your plan of raising a safe-ish river. Make sure 1 bet goes in - no more, no less.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I think you played it fine.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

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I think you played it fine.

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I agree. Its rare that a B&M player at this level will ever 4-bet a big bet street without the nuts or very close to it.

You could still beat the sets, but A5s and 65s have nearly as many combos and are more likely after all the action, so this is a fairly basic calldown.

Two pair is extremely unlikely and very poorly played, obviously, so it should be treated as part of the 10% donkey rule that goes into making the decision to call any turn raise down.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I'd be tempted to raise one more time but I don't think a call is bad either. A reasonable player basically has A5s, 33, 22.

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Anyway, I called the 4bet (instantly regretting it) and a 6 hit the river (no flush). He bet again and I just called. I was going to (obviously) raise a board-pairing river and possibly (like 50% likely if it felt right) any non-A,5,6 river as well, calling a 3-bet if that happened. I was also going to bet any river if checked to and make a decision if checkraised based on the card and whatever felt right (probably calling a lot of the time). Good/bad river plan?

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Given the lack of a 5-bet, this sounds good.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

5 town and then call down. His range is {33,22,56s, A5s, 44} with 44 being discounted at ~50%.

edit: just saw results. dude is kind of lag; hopefully you made some money off of him during the rest of the session.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

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I'd be tempted to raise one more time but I don't think a call is bad either. A reasonable player basically has A5s, 33, 22.

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Anyway, I called the 4bet (instantly regretting it) and a 6 hit the river (no flush). He bet again and I just called. I was going to (obviously) raise a board-pairing river and possibly (like 50% likely if it felt right) any non-A,5,6 river as well, calling a 3-bet if that happened. I was also going to bet any river if checked to and make a decision if checkraised based on the card and whatever felt right (probably calling a lot of the time). Good/bad river plan?

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Given the lack of a 5-bet, this sounds good.

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I actually thought about this some more, and a lot of this river plan doesn't make sense unless your turn call was an accident. If he's crazy enough for a 4card straight river to ever help him, then his range on the turn is so wide that reraising is mandatory. Actually any straight card helps you against his range because it makes for fewer straight combos Villain can have, but it also kills your action against non-straight hands.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

i am pretty sure he has a A5, so you have 10 outs to a full house/quads redraw plus 3 more outs to a push (split pot) if a 5 hits--no push if he has 56, but i play the same with or without the push out: call after he 4bets; check/call river if board does not pair, raise or check/raise if it pairs.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I think his 4-bet screams two pair. Absolutely screams it.

You played it fine though. The wheel is another very real possibility. People love wheel draws. Plus, if you 5-bet, I think there's some chance he folds on the river. Any edge you might get from the 5-bet is small, IMO.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

I think 5-betting live, given the read provided, in Vegas, is nuts.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

You have all the Q's (almost), so the only hand you can beat at that time is a small 2 pair or set. My guess would have been closer to A5 than 65. That being said, I would have still re-raised- still having 10 outs- just to send a message to him and the blue hairs.

Re: Live 15/30 top set hand
 

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I think 5-betting live, given the read provided, in Vegas, is nuts.

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The read I had on this particular opponent was all of one other hand... against anyone else at the table, I would've played it the same way but felt a lot more confident about it.

Anyway, thanks for the responses all. In retrospect, I felt the turn was an easy 5-bet but maybe it's a lot closer than that (of course, results might easily have biased that analysis).